Champions League 2012/13

[haichless]

its all about motivation, bryan didnt need to win, at 0-1 i was sure arsen would not be defeated, as i couldnt see bryan conceeding 3 goals, and so they could just contain the arsen's, go through and let the londoners save a bit of face. that way everyones got a positive spin to put on it. Psycholgy has a large part to play.

[giulio2010]

Malaga-Borussia Dortmund

Real Madrid-Galatasaray

Psg-Barcellona

Bayern Monaco-Juventus
Tough draw for Juventus and PSG

[giulio2010]

Bayern Munich vs Juventus
1.64 is too short for the home win but is a good value for laying. I have found only 2 bookmakers at the moment that are offering higher the 1.64
Laying a £200 liability on this one, you would only risk £128...There are few options here, you either leave it until the end or you close it in negative if Bayern score in the 1st half the 1st goal.
If you close in running in positive you may wait until the price hit 2.0 with a £36 pounds profit spread on all 3 results. You can also wait up to 2.5 with a 69 pounds profit or 3.5 ( if juventus is leading the game) for a £107 profit..This last one is a cracking return considiring the £128 investiment.
PSG vs Barcelona
1.84 is also a good value of laying in my opinion..Barcelona sometimes find difficult to play away, the excuse is always the same, they often complain about the pitch..They may be right if you see the scoring consistent in their home ground.
Ancelotti has the right experience to play this kind of games. I am not saying PSG should be favorite but surely it would be a strong opponent to pass throw in their home ground. At the moment I found 10 bookmakers that are offering the home win higher then 4.8..There is one in particular that is paying 5.35 for the home win, that may be a good arbitrage opportunity.
In this case laying barcelona for a liability of £200, you are risking about £170. If you closed in running at 2.5 you will make £52. If PSG is leading you may be able to close around 3.5 to 4.0 with an average profit of £85.
I am tempted to leave it in play until the end of the game even tough the 2 short favorite will score 1st. I will be wachting both games in case things will look different then I predicted and reverse the strategy.
This an other scenario:
Bayern don't win, Barcelona don't win
£400 profit
Byern WIN, Barcelona don't win
£72 profit
Bayern don't win, Barcelona win
£30 profit
Bayern WIN , Barcelona WIN
you lose £298.

[Consty1]

Fascinating match ups tonight imo. PSG usually set up pretty narrow so I think there'll be an emphasis on Alves and Alba to try and exploit some width. Looking forward to see if Thiago Silva (who I probably regard as a top 3 centre back in the world) can match up against Messi. Then you have a likely 4 of Ibra, Menez, Lucas Moura, and Lavezzi who can give any team problems. Should be good.

Bayern scored 9 at the weekend but you wouldn't bet against Juve finding a way to shut them out. Think Bayern will win the first leg though. You also have Kroos against Pirlo, Pirlo destroyed him in the Euro's.

[giulio2010]

1.64 is too short for the home win but is a good value for laying

1.84 is also a good value of laying in my opinion

Currently 1.65-66 bayern
Currently 1.93-94 barcelona
Between 10-12 ticks profit already

[Euler]

Quite a drift on a such a big match.

[giulio2010]

I was close to hit 2.5 on PSG vs Barcelona but barcelona scored. On the Bayern Munich, the goal was too early, just few seconds in the game. Well, I am losing on both games but I stay positive..

[giulio2010]

I lost on Bayern Munich game but I made a decent come back on PSG vs Barcelona.
SuperNice

[Euler]

I like the momentum that Dortmund have built in the competition so far. My favourite pick outside of the two obvious winners.

[giulio2010]

Borussia Dortmund have made an impressive group stage, everyone thought that was just for the group stage but proved every one wrong. Not to forget Malaga which has made pretty much the same impression.
This 2 games are very though calls
Real Madrid is paid 1,2 ( too short in my opinion), something that is happening quite often in 2012-13 which only means that laying the favorites have slightly increased the value, ofc every games has it's own history and ofc you can't lay every favorites.
Dortmund is currently at 2.34-36, which is slightly below what I have predicted.
I think it would be too difficult to choose an In play strategy before watching at least 15 minutes of the game, therefore I am hoping to close my trade on dortmund at 2.5 before off (8 ticks profit) and sneek couple ticks profit on Real madrid
fingers crossed

[Euler]

Dortmund are inched closer to a result this evening. I reckon they will finish off Malaga in the return leg.

[giulio2010]

No much to say about the tonight games, the odds tell what it may happens tonight, but if Malaga could hold Borussia for 30-45 minutes the 1.4 for the Homewin is a cracking value. The question is, can Malaga do it? The odds are that short that the risk can be approached with a minimum budget, hoping for a well worth profit compare to the risk.
The same question is for Galatassaray, but in this case the risk of laying Real MadriD and losing your money is much higher than laying Borussia and losing your money in my opinion, despite the odds says otherwise. Last wednesday Galatassaray have shown some real good play in attack but left the defence undefended against the attacking Real Madrid power, so tonight that can repeated even though real Madrid may decide to rest some players and with galatassaray trying to recover 3 goals down..
Good luck

[Consty1]

No Burak Yilmaz for Gala remember, suspended tonight.

[giulio2010]

but if Malaga could hold Borussia for 30-45 minutes the 1.4 for the Homewin is a cracking value. The question is, can Malaga do it? The odds are that short that the risk can be approached with a minimum budget, hoping for a well worth profit compare to the risk.
The same question is for Galatassaray, but in this case the risk of laying Real MadriD and losing your money is much higher than laying Borussia and losing your money in my opinion, despite the odds says otherwise.

This is great....I hope some people here have followed my intuition of laying Borussia and not laying R.Madrid..
An other cracking night in play on my rent..
P.S. When i said 1.4 cracking value I meant of laying borussia d.... I hope you guys understoot that

[Euler]

Second half in Turkey has been great