This is a massive steamer.
It was 30 overnight and is being cut every few minutes.
Seabass
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
Strange move on a market like the this?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I think this is more a case of following the money after Ted Walsh appeared on "The Mourning Line".
If it wins good luck but I have to say it doesn't have a lot going for it. Perhaps if the rain had come then I would push its chance up a bit but there are too many negatives for me.
It is by Turtle Island and his progeny almost always excel on ground with cut...soft if I am being honest! It has never won under rules beyond 2m6f and whilst many people say it won on heavy so surely it will stay further I cannot have that. When the ground turns heavy the race is generally won by horses that handle it and they are not always the best horse and they are not necessarily stayers. You could have a real stayer with a good/fast ground action and he'd struggle against a non-stayer with a round action suited to slow/heavy ground.
You will also hear people say he won a 3m point to point but to be perfectly honest they can be uncompetitive and they are rarely run at the pace of a race run under rules.
So why is Ted Walsh saying he has no concerns about him staying this marathon trip? Well as I said in my Market Analysis thread what else can he say? Can you imagine him on the Mourning Line with Blinky McGrath saying "I don't think he'll stay but he he's a good lepper (jumper) so he'll be a good spin round for Katie"
I would be more than happy to be proved wrong and see this horse win but I would want 100/1 before I parted with my money. I reckon granted a clear first circuit this horse will be up there and then fade out of it as stamina comes into play.
If it wins good luck but I have to say it doesn't have a lot going for it. Perhaps if the rain had come then I would push its chance up a bit but there are too many negatives for me.
It is by Turtle Island and his progeny almost always excel on ground with cut...soft if I am being honest! It has never won under rules beyond 2m6f and whilst many people say it won on heavy so surely it will stay further I cannot have that. When the ground turns heavy the race is generally won by horses that handle it and they are not always the best horse and they are not necessarily stayers. You could have a real stayer with a good/fast ground action and he'd struggle against a non-stayer with a round action suited to slow/heavy ground.
You will also hear people say he won a 3m point to point but to be perfectly honest they can be uncompetitive and they are rarely run at the pace of a race run under rules.
So why is Ted Walsh saying he has no concerns about him staying this marathon trip? Well as I said in my Market Analysis thread what else can he say? Can you imagine him on the Mourning Line with Blinky McGrath saying "I don't think he'll stay but he he's a good lepper (jumper) so he'll be a good spin round for Katie"
I would be more than happy to be proved wrong and see this horse win but I would want 100/1 before I parted with my money. I reckon granted a clear first circuit this horse will be up there and then fade out of it as stamina comes into play.
Do you think the fact Seabass had a female jockey had anything to do with the price shortening? I'm thinking a lot of recreational punters would have been drawn in by the romance of a lady winning the GN.
I also think Shakalakaboomboom got a lot of support just because of the name.
I also think Shakalakaboomboom got a lot of support just because of the name.
Remember this last year?
I wonder if the same will happen again?
Was it support for the lady jock?
Now Seabass has shown it can run well round the course and stay the trip with Katy on board again it could be deja vu
While I was writing that Tartan Snow won the Foxhunters with a few quid of my cash on it at 250 and 38 for a place
I wonder if the same will happen again?
Was it support for the lady jock?
Now Seabass has shown it can run well round the course and stay the trip with Katy on board again it could be deja vu
While I was writing that Tartan Snow won the Foxhunters with a few quid of my cash on it at 250 and 38 for a place
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Not a good sign if you want to back it though, the price will probably shrinkConsty1 wrote:Well it's trending on Twitter, that's probably a good sign.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
This could go off at around the 6/1 mark which is crazy. I've taken 12/1 already and would not back him at anything below 10/1