Grand National 2013 - EDIT: Final list now posted!
I'm trying to stage a 'trading/betting comeback' after taking a huge beating last year, trying to trade whilst traveling Europe with no other income stream....my bank is only now starting to recover from the hiding I took 
So hopefully, the Grand National might mark the beginning of a comeback in my gambling career.
Jolly, Sir, you're the best tipster there is. If you can't pick the Grand National winner, no one can. Therefore, I've put 20 pounds to win at odds of 13-1 on 'Cappa Bleu'. I agree with your assessment of the horse. A good 250+ pound win would provide a good starting bank for me to make my gambling comeback.
Grand National of course is largely a lottery. Great tough race though and spectacle, huge betting interest worldwide. I once rated it in the top-7 of the 'World's Greatest Horse Races'.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5007
Champagne wishes and caviar dreams!
So hopefully, the Grand National might mark the beginning of a comeback in my gambling career.
Jolly, Sir, you're the best tipster there is. If you can't pick the Grand National winner, no one can. Therefore, I've put 20 pounds to win at odds of 13-1 on 'Cappa Bleu'. I agree with your assessment of the horse. A good 250+ pound win would provide a good starting bank for me to make my gambling comeback.
Grand National of course is largely a lottery. Great tough race though and spectacle, huge betting interest worldwide. I once rated it in the top-7 of the 'World's Greatest Horse Races'.
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=5007
Champagne wishes and caviar dreams!
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I awoke this morning in a dream to hear the names of the Grand National runners. In the dream someone was reading out the form and a précis of their chance. I then turned over to find it was not a dream but my wife reading from her iPhone!! I listened as she read some real fluff - it was not great! She then said "well that was useless, it told me nothing!"
Sadly that is what happens in a lot of write ups for racing, the author just has column inches to fill and they fluff it up with nothing more than subjective guff!
Anyway I decided to go through the card again and see if I could make any adjustments to my selections. I have been asked by friends to provide a list of my top selections so they can choose their own runners. This started out as an immediate family fun thing but has spread to other interested parties. So here goes with my top rated horses.
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
Becauseicouldntsee
Always Waining
On His Own
Seabass
Treacle
Colbert Station
Ballabriggs
Across The Bay
Teaforthree
Imperial Commander
I don't look at the odds on offer when compiling my list but I have a figure in mind on my book.
I then cut my list like this..without too much boring fluff and guff!
Always Waining. Cannot see him staying the trip, his record at >3m is poor
Colbert Station. He's virtually a novice with only 5 chase starts in his life. He jumps accurately though so perhaps I was hasty to cut him...read my conclusion.
Ballabriggs - superb jumper and clearly knows how to get around this course. Sadly he is now 12 and it will take an enormous effort for him to win at this age when horses generally start to decline. At 40/1 I'd take an e/w interest but at 20/1 I would pass.
Across the Bay I know this horse was highly regarded in Ireland but he is a real nervous type who has bombed when he runs in big fields. You won't find a bigger field than the National and the quote by his trainer in today's Racing Post says it all "Whether he will take to the place, I don't know"
Teaforthree This horse will get the trip, should jump the fences and stays all day. However, if you watched C4's "How to win the National" last night you will have been given a clue about this horse. Rebecca Curtis is forward thinking and she believes her horses should share a barn and mingle socially. I think that is commendable but this horse described as "the boss" (my writer's licence) is lost when he is away from that environment. He was fancied for the Grand National Trial at Haydock but he bombed. His trainer said he "wouldn't eat up the night before the race and did not like his surroundings". That tells me he wasn't "the boss" and so wasn't a happy horse. I think that will happen at Aintree.
Imperial Commander If this horse could run to within 10lb of his peak then he would cross the winning line a fence clear and probably not break sweat. However, he is now in decline at the age of 12 after injuries have taken their toll on this magnificent chaser. His trainer is like a kid in a sweet shop saying he has never been so excited about a National runner. I am always a bit cynical and suggest "he would say that though wouldn't he!" Let's face it he isn't going to say his best horse has no chance. I remember when they sent him to Aintree for the Grade 1 Bowl and I was telling everyone it was the lay of the century. I think I may even have written it on here. On that occasion his trainer would not listen to the doubters telling him Aintree wouldn't suit and he pushed on regardless. The horse never jumped a twig and unseated his rider at the 5th fence! Well nothing has changed at Aintree except for the fences he encountered. These are the birch style and whilst they are easier they still require a good jump and they test a horse to the full. His trainer says "He was rated 185 yet he runs off 158 and surely he isn't 30lbs worse?" Well I would suggest he is close to being 30lbs worse and his recent run at Cheltenham would back that up. In the trainer's defence he does state the horse was "only half fit" but I would take that with a pinch of salt as he does tend to over egg the pudding. If he wins I will be delighted and will happily cheer him home but he's a 33/1 shot in my book and not 16/1 as offered.
Conclusion My final list would therefore look like this
Cappa Bleu
On His Own
Seabass
Becauseicouldntsee
Treacle
Colbert Station*
Sunnyhillboy**
* I've included him because he has the profile and only his lack of chase starts puts me off. I am taking a chance on him but 16/1 is a fair price
** I've left him in but the concern is his true health and fitness. They withdrew him from Cheltenham citing a health issue so I have to hope he is fully fit and 100% healthy. I also have slight reservations about the ground. They are watering it to prevent injuries and I am not sure it will totally suit this horse.
It's a large list but we will have small each way bets and enjoy the race. I hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and may the best horse win....hopefully one of mine!
Sadly that is what happens in a lot of write ups for racing, the author just has column inches to fill and they fluff it up with nothing more than subjective guff!
Anyway I decided to go through the card again and see if I could make any adjustments to my selections. I have been asked by friends to provide a list of my top selections so they can choose their own runners. This started out as an immediate family fun thing but has spread to other interested parties. So here goes with my top rated horses.
Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
Becauseicouldntsee
Always Waining
On His Own
Seabass
Treacle
Colbert Station
Ballabriggs
Across The Bay
Teaforthree
Imperial Commander
I don't look at the odds on offer when compiling my list but I have a figure in mind on my book.
I then cut my list like this..without too much boring fluff and guff!
Always Waining. Cannot see him staying the trip, his record at >3m is poor
Colbert Station. He's virtually a novice with only 5 chase starts in his life. He jumps accurately though so perhaps I was hasty to cut him...read my conclusion.
Ballabriggs - superb jumper and clearly knows how to get around this course. Sadly he is now 12 and it will take an enormous effort for him to win at this age when horses generally start to decline. At 40/1 I'd take an e/w interest but at 20/1 I would pass.
Across the Bay I know this horse was highly regarded in Ireland but he is a real nervous type who has bombed when he runs in big fields. You won't find a bigger field than the National and the quote by his trainer in today's Racing Post says it all "Whether he will take to the place, I don't know"
Teaforthree This horse will get the trip, should jump the fences and stays all day. However, if you watched C4's "How to win the National" last night you will have been given a clue about this horse. Rebecca Curtis is forward thinking and she believes her horses should share a barn and mingle socially. I think that is commendable but this horse described as "the boss" (my writer's licence) is lost when he is away from that environment. He was fancied for the Grand National Trial at Haydock but he bombed. His trainer said he "wouldn't eat up the night before the race and did not like his surroundings". That tells me he wasn't "the boss" and so wasn't a happy horse. I think that will happen at Aintree.
Imperial Commander If this horse could run to within 10lb of his peak then he would cross the winning line a fence clear and probably not break sweat. However, he is now in decline at the age of 12 after injuries have taken their toll on this magnificent chaser. His trainer is like a kid in a sweet shop saying he has never been so excited about a National runner. I am always a bit cynical and suggest "he would say that though wouldn't he!" Let's face it he isn't going to say his best horse has no chance. I remember when they sent him to Aintree for the Grade 1 Bowl and I was telling everyone it was the lay of the century. I think I may even have written it on here. On that occasion his trainer would not listen to the doubters telling him Aintree wouldn't suit and he pushed on regardless. The horse never jumped a twig and unseated his rider at the 5th fence! Well nothing has changed at Aintree except for the fences he encountered. These are the birch style and whilst they are easier they still require a good jump and they test a horse to the full. His trainer says "He was rated 185 yet he runs off 158 and surely he isn't 30lbs worse?" Well I would suggest he is close to being 30lbs worse and his recent run at Cheltenham would back that up. In the trainer's defence he does state the horse was "only half fit" but I would take that with a pinch of salt as he does tend to over egg the pudding. If he wins I will be delighted and will happily cheer him home but he's a 33/1 shot in my book and not 16/1 as offered.
Conclusion My final list would therefore look like this
Cappa Bleu
On His Own
Seabass
Becauseicouldntsee
Treacle
Colbert Station*
Sunnyhillboy**
* I've included him because he has the profile and only his lack of chase starts puts me off. I am taking a chance on him but 16/1 is a fair price
** I've left him in but the concern is his true health and fitness. They withdrew him from Cheltenham citing a health issue so I have to hope he is fully fit and 100% healthy. I also have slight reservations about the ground. They are watering it to prevent injuries and I am not sure it will totally suit this horse.
It's a large list but we will have small each way bets and enjoy the race. I hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and may the best horse win....hopefully one of mine!
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OnGoldWires
- Posts: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:07 pm
Thank you very much JG, I enjoyed your posts immensely. I have partially taken your advice and I have decided to LAY
Sea Bass
Chicago Grey
Teaforthree
Imperial Commander
Balthazar King
Rare Bob
So that gives me the field at about 1.67 (£8 profit for £12 liability). I had 40p greened up from a £5 I had invested in horses with names (e.g. Harry the Viking) thinking they would be popular with people who know Harrys or Bobs. It is a shame Gullible Gordon did not run.
Might have a crafty punt on BecauseIcouldntsee for champagne money!!
Sea Bass
Chicago Grey
Teaforthree
Imperial Commander
Balthazar King
Rare Bob
So that gives me the field at about 1.67 (£8 profit for £12 liability). I had 40p greened up from a £5 I had invested in horses with names (e.g. Harry the Viking) thinking they would be popular with people who know Harrys or Bobs. It is a shame Gullible Gordon did not run.
Might have a crafty punt on BecauseIcouldntsee for champagne money!!
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
This is a fun day ( horses only ofc)JollyGreen wrote:Cappa Bleu
Sunnyhillboy
Becauseicouldntsee
Always Waining
On His Own
Seabass
Treacle
Colbert Station
Ballabriggs
Across The Bay
Teaforthree
Imperial Commander
If I layed all your selections I make £500 pounds profit out £375 risk. I need to take 1 tick below the current price tough..
have fun and tx for the post. good luck all
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
They are only there for people to choose from, there is a lot to say about OnGoldWires post and his lays. There is very little risk by laying lots of the horses I decided to cut because cumulatively they shorten the odds and you have the remainder running for you.giulio2010 wrote: This is a fun day ( horses only ofc)
If I layed all your selections I make £500 pounds profit out £375 risk. I need to take 1 tick below the current price tough..
have fun and tx for the post. good luck all
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSJollyGreen wrote:They are only there for people to choose from, there is a lot to say about OnGoldWires post and his lays. There is very little risk by laying lots of the horses I decided to cut because cumulatively they shorten the odds and you have the remainder running for you.giulio2010 wrote: This is a fun day ( horses only ofc)
If I layed all your selections I make £500 pounds profit out £375 risk. I need to take 1 tick below the current price tough..
have fun and tx for the post. good luck all
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