Maybe it's just me but apart from Cheltenham I seem to have been looking at nothing but volatile swing trade markets for the last weeks.
Has anybody ever worked out over a year the percentage of swing markets to scalp markets. I have no idea but I guess it must be 70 / 30.
scalp v swing
The swing v scalp debate has been raging on for years on here, it is an interesting subject.
What constitues a swing? Or when does a scalp become a swing?
For me, I generally take a position looking for large move in odds. I would like 50 ticks +. Sometimes it turns into 5 or less. Sometimes it turns the other way! But my intention is to ride the "big wave" if it arrives.
Other times I deliberately set out to take 1 tick. In very high liquidity markets where the odds are between a highly defined range within 3 or 4 ticks. I am not very good at this, it usually goes wrong at some point and turns into a swing.
Another consideration is at what odds you are in the market. You wouldn't catch me within a mile of runners over 4 during live shows (unless I have a position from earlier in the day). Think it would be impossible to put a % on it. It's more about your trading style. I think there are runners you could scalp in every race at certain points during the markets lifetime.
It's an interesting debate though.
What constitues a swing? Or when does a scalp become a swing?
For me, I generally take a position looking for large move in odds. I would like 50 ticks +. Sometimes it turns into 5 or less. Sometimes it turns the other way! But my intention is to ride the "big wave" if it arrives.
Other times I deliberately set out to take 1 tick. In very high liquidity markets where the odds are between a highly defined range within 3 or 4 ticks. I am not very good at this, it usually goes wrong at some point and turns into a swing.
Another consideration is at what odds you are in the market. You wouldn't catch me within a mile of runners over 4 during live shows (unless I have a position from earlier in the day). Think it would be impossible to put a % on it. It's more about your trading style. I think there are runners you could scalp in every race at certain points during the markets lifetime.
It's an interesting debate though.
Morning MG,
You're up early.
Whenever I try to scalp, the market moves hugely in the opposite direction and whenever I think I'm about to 'swing' with the flow, it doubles back and probably should have just scalped 1 tick.
It's as if when I enter the market, everyone else goes "Look out lads, he's in. Move now!"
I have had some luck with swiping a few ticks in-play though as long as it's a longish race. I wouldnt entertain getting involved with races under 1 mile.
Personally, i think i'm more of a swinger. All I have to master now is entering at the right time.
You're up early.
Whenever I try to scalp, the market moves hugely in the opposite direction and whenever I think I'm about to 'swing' with the flow, it doubles back and probably should have just scalped 1 tick.
It's as if when I enter the market, everyone else goes "Look out lads, he's in. Move now!"
I have had some luck with swiping a few ticks in-play though as long as it's a longish race. I wouldnt entertain getting involved with races under 1 mile.
Personally, i think i'm more of a swinger. All I have to master now is entering at the right time.
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tweebie1999
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:23 am
Hi thanks for the replies.
I see the point that you can scalp or swing in any market at some point but what I was referring to was when you first look at a market and think that it is more likely to deliver a good swing trade and would be dangerous to scalp. I don't know if you have seen Peter's market heat map which you get if you go on one of his masterclasses but that divides markets into volatile and stable with a grey area inbetween. Generally the idea being don't scalp in volatile markets but scalp in stable markets. So I suppose my question rephrased should really be, how many markets are volatile as opposed to stable over a period of a year. And I suppose the answer would be there is a lot more poor grade racing than high grade so there must be more volatile markets than stable.
I am relatively new to trading but it is a great bonus to realise the difference between what is possible in volatile markets and what is possible in stable markets.
I see the point that you can scalp or swing in any market at some point but what I was referring to was when you first look at a market and think that it is more likely to deliver a good swing trade and would be dangerous to scalp. I don't know if you have seen Peter's market heat map which you get if you go on one of his masterclasses but that divides markets into volatile and stable with a grey area inbetween. Generally the idea being don't scalp in volatile markets but scalp in stable markets. So I suppose my question rephrased should really be, how many markets are volatile as opposed to stable over a period of a year. And I suppose the answer would be there is a lot more poor grade racing than high grade so there must be more volatile markets than stable.
I am relatively new to trading but it is a great bonus to realise the difference between what is possible in volatile markets and what is possible in stable markets.
I don't think its at all possible to predict ahead of time which markets are going to be stable viz suitable for scalping; except for the obvious races, usually ante post, grade 1/2.
If you are talking about trading the favourite, where volatility is usually higher and more frequent, then there will be a mixture of trend trading, scalping and swing trading opportunities, all appearing in the final 10-15 minutes. That is why a single strategy is both limiting and dangerous and why you have to learn how to gain expertise in all 3 disciplines. Specifically with scalping, you can never rely on a stable market remaining stable enough for long enough to allow you to make a decent profit and even in those races that do stay stable for considerable periods (eg long odds on shots) you will not get much money through the market due to the very large volumes at each price point. New traders have to learn scalping in both stationary and trending markets to make the strategy viable.
Generally speaking it is easier but slower to scalp horses that are not favourite (nor near favourite) as these tend to have a less volatile profiles. Apart from latching onto a steamer, non favourites have a smoother graph curve but do tend to suffer from a lack of liquidity meaning that smaller stakes have to be used.
If you are talking about trading the favourite, where volatility is usually higher and more frequent, then there will be a mixture of trend trading, scalping and swing trading opportunities, all appearing in the final 10-15 minutes. That is why a single strategy is both limiting and dangerous and why you have to learn how to gain expertise in all 3 disciplines. Specifically with scalping, you can never rely on a stable market remaining stable enough for long enough to allow you to make a decent profit and even in those races that do stay stable for considerable periods (eg long odds on shots) you will not get much money through the market due to the very large volumes at each price point. New traders have to learn scalping in both stationary and trending markets to make the strategy viable.
Generally speaking it is easier but slower to scalp horses that are not favourite (nor near favourite) as these tend to have a less volatile profiles. Apart from latching onto a steamer, non favourites have a smoother graph curve but do tend to suffer from a lack of liquidity meaning that smaller stakes have to be used.
You can, but its very variable depending on the skill of the trader. Based on a number of key metrics its possible to identify in advance races that I will or wont trade and the styles I use in them. It's one of the ways I maximize the potential I get from each day. I can plot the same for most traders.James1st wrote:I don't think its at all possible to predict ahead of time which markets are going to be stable viz suitable for scalping; except for the obvious races, usually ante post, grade 1/2.
If you are a newbie and stick to the 'safest' markets you may only scalp 10% of them, but if you are skilled you may be able to push that to 50%. Of course you could turn up to a market and it acts completely bonkers, so being able to see that and act on it is a skill in itself.
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tweebie1999
- Posts: 89
- Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:23 am
I also think you can identify markets which are likely to behave in a predicatble way. I started looking for stable races to scalp and when I found one, it was relatively easy to green up. But I do find these races few and far between (outside the big meetings)so you do need more skills than just being able to scalp very stable markets if you want to make money. I believe I am guilty of trying to make money outby trading too many races but at least by doing so as a new trader I am getting lots of experience in identifying patterns.
Isn't that precisely what many scalpers do day after day though, i.e. put lots of money through relatively stable markets?James1st wrote: Specifically with scalping, you can never rely on a stable market remaining stable enough for long enough to allow you to make a decent profit and even in those races that do stay stable for considerable periods (eg long odds on shots) you will not get much money through the market due to the very large volumes at each price point.
It's something I've been doing myself recently, and if you choose the right market it's a fairly low risk and lucrative way of trading.
Jeff
As far as I could tell, races where 1 or 2 horses dominate the book were more likely to be swingy, whereas races with multiple runners at similar prices were more likely to be stable. And the more solid the form-lines, the more likely to be stable; the weaker the form-lines, the more likely to be swingy.James1st wrote:I don't think its at all possible to predict ahead of time which markets are going to be stable viz suitable for scalping; except for the obvious races, usually ante post, grade 1/2.
Ferru123 wrote:Isn't that precisely what many scalpers do day after day though, i.e. put lots of money through relatively stable markets?James1st wrote: Specifically with scalping, you can never rely on a stable market remaining stable enough for long enough to allow you to make a decent profit and even in those races that do stay stable for considerable periods (eg long odds on shots) you will not get much money through the market due to the very large volumes at each price point.
It's something I've been doing myself recently, and if you choose the right market it's a fairly low risk and lucrative way of trading.
Jeff
The problem here is getting specific with what a BF trader means by "scalping". A long time ago the word was bastardised to include all sorts of short term trading whereas "scalping" in the true sense used to mean simply selling at the back odds and buying at the lay odds; a simple one tick transaction that operated in a static market. Performing this action in the pre race markets today means that your cash is usually at the end of a very large queue and often won't get matched.
The length of time any pre race market will stay constant between 2 fixed values (bid and ask) is usually only 10-20 seconds (maybe twice) in the 10 minutes pre race, so its a difficult spot to identify and doesn't even exist in every race.
I doubt if there are any BF traders who do actually scalp and what they are actually doing is trading either the "noise" or a tight range; more accurately range trading for minimal ticks.
Hi James
I agree with you that scalping is used generally to refer to the practice of offering to both sides of the book to grab a one tick profit.
BTW, the kind of market I was referring to is illustrated by the screenshot. The vast majority of the money traded on this horse has been traded within a tight range, and the market for this horse doesn't display much sign of volatility outside of the range. Also, there's a decent level of support and resistance throughout the range, meaning that the price is less likely to suddenly move 5 ticks against your position than if there were next to no money within the queue. I would say that offering small amounts to the queue and scratching when the market goes against you would probably be profitable. Would you agree?
Jeff
I agree with you that scalping is used generally to refer to the practice of offering to both sides of the book to grab a one tick profit.
BTW, the kind of market I was referring to is illustrated by the screenshot. The vast majority of the money traded on this horse has been traded within a tight range, and the market for this horse doesn't display much sign of volatility outside of the range. Also, there's a decent level of support and resistance throughout the range, meaning that the price is less likely to suddenly move 5 ticks against your position than if there were next to no money within the queue. I would say that offering small amounts to the queue and scratching when the market goes against you would probably be profitable. Would you agree?
Jeff
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Last edited by Iron on Sun May 12, 2013 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Yes, Jeff, you managed to pick up a rare event.
I traded 16 races (all, except where times overlapped) between 2pm and 4pm today and in EVERY race the market moved between 5 and 10 ticks (a few 20's) which demonstrates that "static" races like your example is indeed a unique event.
Going back to the initial question, I cannot see a method that would have identified your sample race, before the event.
I traded 16 races (all, except where times overlapped) between 2pm and 4pm today and in EVERY race the market moved between 5 and 10 ticks (a few 20's) which demonstrates that "static" races like your example is indeed a unique event.
Going back to the initial question, I cannot see a method that would have identified your sample race, before the event.
Such markets are in the minority - although I'm not sure I agree that they are rare.James1st wrote: I traded 16 races (all, except where times overlapped) between 2pm and 4pm today and in EVERY race the market moved between 5 and 10 ticks (a few 20's) which demonstrates that "static" races like your example is indeed a unique event.
However, if you have (say) a favorite that's trading at 7s ten minutes before the off, it's flat as a pancake and with plenty of support and resistance either side of a narrow range, I would have thought that there's a good chance it will still be static near the off. I could be wrong though - has anyone investigated this?
Just to pick up on something you wrote in a previous message:
This is my main concern with scalping. You could patiently accrue two ticks' profit and then have the market spike two ticks against you, putting you back to square one. Also, when the market shows signs of exiting the range, often all the scalpers seem to head for the door at once, which can cause quite a pronounced move against your position.James1st wrote:you can never rely on a stable market remaining stable enough for long enough to allow you to make a decent profit
I know that there are guys who scalp professionally and have done for years, but I'm not convinced that their success is a reflection of some immutable property of Betfair markets, or merely a reflection of the way markets behaved in the past (and may or may not continue to behave). Given that there are changes in fundamentals (such as people spending less at the bookies and the introduction of Betfair's sportsbook), I think it's dangerous to assume that what worked in the past will continue to work.
Jeff
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well I scalp lots of markets on a daily basis. I must use past tense for now because I am not well enough to trade at the moment. Can you determine which market? Well I would be in the YES camp. Can you scalp every market? NO!
Even a market that moves around by 5-10-20 ticks can and will often present an opportunity to scalp. The time available to scalp will vary and you cannot accurately quantify it. I don't think I am alone when I say I can look at certain metrics within a market to determine if scalping is possible.
Even a market that moves around by 5-10-20 ticks can and will often present an opportunity to scalp. The time available to scalp will vary and you cannot accurately quantify it. I don't think I am alone when I say I can look at certain metrics within a market to determine if scalping is possible.