Pricng 0-0 in a match

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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buyshirts
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Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 12:37 pm

I would like people's view in how to price 0-0 scoreline in football match?
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OnGoldWires
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Joined: Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:07 pm

The only advice I can give is that we are now entering the funny season when a large number of players start thinking about putting their feet up and spending their hardly earned money. Make sure the match means something to both teams and expect form reversals, even if one of the teams has already been relegated.
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buyshirts
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Joined: Sat Apr 18, 2009 12:37 pm

Cheers thanks for your reply. I was wondering how far back odds compliers go when coming to their decision.
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Euler
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Odds compilers don't really use historic data to calculate 0-0. The whole historical data stuff on footy is a bit of a red herring TBH. Useful but only to spot biases to examine.
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:Odds compilers don't really use historic data to calculate 0-0. The whole historical data stuff on footy is a bit of a red herring TBH. Useful but only to spot biases to examine.
I totally agree with this, because when I worked for Ladbrokes (pre-internet betting) all their shops had a ready reckoner to calculate Correct Score & HTFT prices on any match on the coupon. Some punters liked this because there wasn't the same betting restrictions on those markets
In a nutshell, the fixed odds bookies didn't read too much into 0-0 draws, they tended to be set according to the outright draw price. Obviously, with goals over/under now being a major market, that may have a bearing on 0-0 having slightly different odds, but they are predominately a set price
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buyshirts
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My thought on how the 0-0 price is established was as a derivative of the draw price in conjunction with the goal expectation. I thought the goal expectation must have historical element for each team long with the long term average.
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OnGoldWires
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Further to my response about it being football's silly season, please see "Strange Match Odds" thread.
I guess this is a match that neither side needs to win and a draw will suit both. So, there is either an "arrangement", a rumour of an "arrangement", or a group of traders trying to spook the market. It illustrates my point that the numbers and the maths are for guidance in football, especially at this point in the season.
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