Understanding graph

[Charon]

Can someone understand the logic of this graph of yesterdays match between Arsenal and Wigan? I don't understand the behaviour between the 1-0 and 1-1. It doesn't look logic to me.

[JollyGreen]

At 1-0 the odds for Wigan drifted because they went behind. At 1-1 when they equalised their price dropped to odds that were close to the offer before they went behind. This is normal to me

[LinusP]

The game started 0-0 like all football games but you have circled it as 1-0, Arsenal then scored shooting Wigans odds up to 20ish (1-0). they then equalised making the odds go back to where they were at the start of the game.

[Charon]

Okay maybe not specific enough. Ofcourse I understand the part you people are explaining.

But after the 1-0 the price settles at 25.00. Then it moves downward. Why? Time goes on and Wigan is behind. So the price should rise imo. Then after a while when the price is 21.00 for some minutes it does as expected and the price is rising but very steep. And finally the price is going down again to 21.00 where a rise is expected.

[L.o.S]

The first spike is probably market over reaction which happens day in day out on in play markets, especially after a suspension. Also the way the team were playing would influence the odds, the expected drift might not materialize straight away if Wigan look very likely to equalise. I didn't watch the game so have no way of knowing, but if they looked dangerous sometimes a team's odds can temporarily shorten before time decaying naturally pushes them out.

The over-round has to be maintained as well. If Arsenal are being heavily backed after the goal their price probably shortened a few extra ticks (I'd imagine around 1.2 to 1.17 or lower), or many lay the draw traders are exiting their positions after the goal (very likely IMO) then they would push the price in slightly, which would naturally force Wigan's price out before steadying at the 'true price' and beginning to drift.

Could be a combination of all the above or none, but some food for thought anyway.

[Charon]

Thanks for the reply and plausible explanation.

[gutuami]

the difference between 21 and 25 is roughly the same as for example between 1.50 and 1.52 in percentage terms. 0.76 vs 0.87. At the odds provided that means that if odds on Arsenal would move 1-2 ticks Wigan should move 3-5ticks. That looks spectacular on betfair's supercharts

[haichless]

That shappens all the time, goal scored initial odds are higher than where they settle on the team that has lost the goal. Wait about 2 mins after suspension and you tend to get close to the true new odds.