scalp v swing

[Zenyatta]

With sound staking, it's hard to lose much money in the markets, and you only need to be right often enough to pay for the times that you're wrong...

Jeff

I really wish that was true Jeff. My statement of accounts gambling for the past 3 years:

Net profit : 20k
BetAngel: -10k

Overall, on net, I'm up about 20k on gambling, but on BetAngel I made a loss of 10k Obviously I can absorb the 10k loss on BetAngel, but I really wish I still had that extra 10k.

Of course I totally disagree with your philosophy of responding to the market rather than predicting it. In fact, I'm more sure than ever that simply responding to the market rather than trying to predict it is totally the wrong thing to be doing. If you can't predict it, you shouldn't be playing is my philosophy

Look the trading markets are a negative sum game. Clearly if there are winners, there are losers. So the winning traders are fleecing the losers basically. It's not in their interests to give a detailed account of trading to likes of you and me, and in fact I believe that they are presenting you with a very misleading picture of what trading is really about.

[Bet Angel]

It's a shame you never came to the office!

[Iron]

In fact, I'm more sure than ever that simply responding to the market rather than trying to predict it is totally the wrong thing to be doing. If you can't predict it, you shouldn't be playing is my philosophy

Try telling that to the financial market traders who have made hundreds of millions of dollars from reacting to the market rather than forecasting it.

This guy freely admits that he cannot predict what the markets are going to do next: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -year.html.

Jeff

[redtra]

Net profit : 20k
BetAngel: -10k

Overall, on net, I'm up about 20k on gambling, but on BetAngel I made a loss of 10k Obviously I can absorb the 10k loss on BetAngel, but I really wish I still had that extra 10k.

Of course I totally disagree with your philosophy of responding to the market rather than predicting it. In fact, I'm more sure than ever that simply responding to the market rather than trying to predict it is totally the wrong thing to be doing. If you can't predict it, you shouldn't be playing is my philosophy

Look the trading markets are a negative sum game. Clearly if there are winners, there are losers. So the winning traders are fleecing the losers basically. It's not in their interests to give a detailed account of trading to likes of you and me, and in fact I believe that they are presenting you with a very misleading picture of what trading is really about.[/quote]




I know it can seem like that at times but I do feel the advice given here by the good profitable traders is given altruistically. Obviously they won't give too much away of their own strategies, which makes sense, but everyone I have been in contact with recommends using minimum stakes or practice mode until profitable, even just paper trading. That is the key to learning it I think and the also an indication that the information is sound.

Tading is not easy and from what I have discovered, there are lots of ways to go about it so I suppose at times there will be conflicting information. What works for one trader may not work for another. It is up to us new traders to sort out the bits we like to use and feel comfortable with. Personally, I am trying to understand trends rather than the fast movements. It doesn't seem quite as hectic this way and is more thought out which suits me better.

[PeterLe]

In fact, I'm more sure than ever that simply responding to the market rather than trying to predict it is totally the wrong thing to be doing. If you can't predict it, you shouldn't be playing is my philosophy

Try telling that to the financial market traders who have made hundreds of millions of dollars from reacting to the market rather than forecasting it.

This guy freely admits that he cannot predict what the markets are going to do next: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -year.html.

Jeff

Hi Jeff
Good article.
I liked this statement from him :-

He has said of analysing the financial markets: 'It was like a prize sudoku puzzle, with the added appeal that you got paid a load of money for looking at it.'
I like that statement, because, as I've said in other posts; it not always about the money

..and there was a statement :-
Over 90 per cent of the trading carried out by his firm his conducted automatically by computers - with just 10 per cent carried out by humans.

Which maybe goes towards answering the question you asked of Jolly - "Can you create a program to predict a scalping Market.."

Regards
Peter

[LinusP]

But am I right in thinking these 'high frequency' bots manipulate the market? If so the only thing they are predicting is the markets reaction to something they are doing...

[PeterLe]

HFT (High Frequency Trading) is very apparent on the financial markets. I cant say too much on here, but I've see the amount of money that is spent by the big trading houses on trying to get an edge. They spend seven figures on implementing systems that can run for less than a day.

Wherever there is money to be made, you will get focus and Betfair is no different. There will be teams working on this with the best brains in the business trying to manipulate the market and Im sure they do to some extent. You will never change that all you can do is work with what you have. Even the single trader can do well though
Regards
Peter

[Iron]

Except that he's a trend follower, not a scalper, meaning that he only exits his trade when the move runs out of steam.

Jeff

..and there was a statement :-
Over 90 per cent of the trading carried out by his firm his conducted automatically by computers - with just 10 per cent carried out by humans.

Which maybe goes towards answering the question you asked of Jolly - "Can you create a program to predict a scalping Market.."

Regards
Peter

[redtra]

hi...when replying to a post and using a quote from another...how do you get the quote in a grey box? Is there a button somewhere?

[Euler]

The trouble with bots in sports markets is that they can miss vital information and be led astray by people actually watching the event. Happens all the time. Perfectly possible to create automated stuff that makes money, but humans make more. Even if it just means them switching this off when they are mis-firing.

[Euler]

hi...when replying to a post and using a quote from another...how do you get the quote in a grey box? Is there a button somewhere?

When you reply to a post, just click on the 'quote' button.

[PeterLe]

Jeff
With 50 Phd's and the best brains in the business working for him, I sure they could create a simple program!!
regards
Peter

(Redra - you click the "Quote" button in the grey box above the posting. However, only use this when you feel it is absolutely necessary as it eats away at the disk space)

[redtra]

hi...when replying to a post and using a quote from another...how do you get the quote in a grey box? Is there a button somewhere?

When you reply to a post, just click on the 'quote' button.

thanks...just trying it out!

[Iron]

They do have lots of PhDs, but that may be something to do with the fact that they are managing something like £20 billion of money, and have positions in probably thousands of instruments. It may also partly be about impressing clients.
From what I’ve heard, all they do implement a simple trend following method (something like ‘buy when the market reaches the highest point of the past 20 days, and sell when it reaches the lowest point of the past 10 days’).

Jeff

Jeff
With 50 Phd's and the best brains in the business working for him, I sure they could create a simple program!!
regards
Peter

[steven1976]

But am I right in thinking these 'high frequency' bots manipulate the market? If so the only thing they are predicting is the markets reaction to something they are doing...

To me, I believe yes for pre event and also to a certain degree in play. I dont believe it is fully automated though and would have some human intervention once money arrives.

I think I read something similar on another thread on here the other day but cant find it now although Ive only had a quick glance through the threads.