Hey fellow traders,
I need help as a newbie.
As you might know much better than me, there are courtsiders everywhere but the effects of their early sweeping of the prices are not always the same.
For i.e, the Irish courses have a giant punter who pushes the ladder down to 1.30 with big amounts, 4K, 9K or 13K before you see that the horse actually goes on to win. If he changes his mind, he will put a reverse lay at 2.0 around 4K and 3.0 around 2K. It`s an inevitable process on Irish courses..
Yesterday, there was an abnormality on Newton Abbot as I felt like I am 4-5 seconds behind the reality, 2 fences to jump and 3 horses going on well. Suddenly I see the prices around 1.10 and yeah, actually that horse goes on to win. It was simply not possible to profit from any I/R trades in the latter stages of the races on Newton Abbot.
Could you share your experiences if you got any? Which courses are not logical to trade I/R?
P.S: I got Racing UK and ATR on satellite, 28.2 E.. Watching the ATR tracks on BF video though..
Which UK and IRE courses are not to trade In-Running?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
It's a bit of a double edge sword really...
If you are looking for some big profits, then by definition you need a course where you have plenty of courtsiders. So you may have a system that has a very low strike rate (<3-4%) but pays handsomely when it hits. (NB You may go for long periods before you get a result, so you have to be prepared both mentally and financially)
Having said that; I never trade Kempton, Ling or Wolv
regards
Peter
If you are looking for some big profits, then by definition you need a course where you have plenty of courtsiders. So you may have a system that has a very low strike rate (<3-4%) but pays handsomely when it hits. (NB You may go for long periods before you get a result, so you have to be prepared both mentally and financially)
Having said that; I never trade Kempton, Ling or Wolv
regards
Peter
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davetimmins
- Posts: 56
- Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2009 2:22 pm
As JG says read the thread. The Irish punter turned up a year or so ago and has pretty much killed Irish for in running. He/they also turn up a lot on ATR races, but rarely on RUK races where he has little or no advantage. He also started backing at 1.4 but now backs at 1.3, which suggests his profits from a dwindling supply are suffering.
The whole IR market now has lower overall liquidity making things much riskier, particularly evening racing. Betfair live video is pretty close to SIS now and RUK equal to Turf TV. Being able to race read can give you profit as a lot of the new big money is not backed up with this ability. The number of horses that trade low (sub 1.5) and lose compared to a year ago is staggering. Following the money is difficult with lower liquidity races and days and the delay doesn't help. IMO IR is dominated by backers who are using some picture/time advantage but don't always get it right. There is a dwindling supply of punters or 'mug money' and no two days are the same. In other words it's a bit of a minefield unless you can find yourself an edge.
I agree with Peter that AW tracks are generally to be avoided, as they have that market cornered, and you expose yourself to too much risk doing Irish racing. I think, like Peter you have to see which courses you trade well and avoid those you don't - Ffos Loss being one for me! Some courses like Chester offer great opportunities due to the nature of the course and always attracts big money.
The whole IR market now has lower overall liquidity making things much riskier, particularly evening racing. Betfair live video is pretty close to SIS now and RUK equal to Turf TV. Being able to race read can give you profit as a lot of the new big money is not backed up with this ability. The number of horses that trade low (sub 1.5) and lose compared to a year ago is staggering. Following the money is difficult with lower liquidity races and days and the delay doesn't help. IMO IR is dominated by backers who are using some picture/time advantage but don't always get it right. There is a dwindling supply of punters or 'mug money' and no two days are the same. In other words it's a bit of a minefield unless you can find yourself an edge.
I agree with Peter that AW tracks are generally to be avoided, as they have that market cornered, and you expose yourself to too much risk doing Irish racing. I think, like Peter you have to see which courses you trade well and avoid those you don't - Ffos Loss being one for me! Some courses like Chester offer great opportunities due to the nature of the course and always attracts big money.
Do not trade Irish courses .. U are being raped.
Couldn't comment with certainty on the in play race markets. But I would say something similar seems to be impacting the tennis markets.
My gut feel for tennis markets... some algos have worked out how to skid the book independently of the underlying market, shaking off profitable positions and absorbing unprofitable positions. If they can do it for binary markets it's easy to do it for multiple outcome markets...
My gut feel for tennis markets... some algos have worked out how to skid the book independently of the underlying market, shaking off profitable positions and absorbing unprofitable positions. If they can do it for binary markets it's easy to do it for multiple outcome markets...
I think you need to distinguish between the different types of in running betting.
I make 30% of my money betting In Play. I have no access to fast pics.
I think the running betting you guys are discussing relys on taking advantage of seeing what is happening before everyone else can. Like court siding. making money in play at any course wether it be Ireland of main UK is possible.
I make 30% of my money betting In Play. I have no access to fast pics.
I think the running betting you guys are discussing relys on taking advantage of seeing what is happening before everyone else can. Like court siding. making money in play at any course wether it be Ireland of main UK is possible.
Yeah there are a few of the simpler trades JeffFerru123 wrote:Do you have any videos in your blog showing in-play trading?mugsgame wrote:I think you need to distinguish between the different types of in running betting.
I make 30% of my money betting In Play. I have no access to fast pics.
Jeff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AWCxvpDgf8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StPIkpc_a_c
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im1uhS-9g8g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIwfLtP8gzA
Thanks Steve
I love your on-screen message at 5:25 on this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AWCxvpDgf8
Jeff
I love your on-screen message at 5:25 on this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AWCxvpDgf8
Jeff
I think it depends on your trading/betting strategy. For me Irish racing - flat & jumps- the most profitable, but then I'm predominately an in-play layer. Lingfield, Kempton, Wolverhampton I struggle with, likewise Chester. Southwell aw always seems to deliver, as do most of the jumps tracks, the quirkier ones best of all - weekends & evenings not to be missed.