i would suggest you have a look at mugsgames website and utube site - it will hopefully help you to start getting to hang of the horse racing markets - there iss er lot of good straight up on the level advice and real tradesConsty1 wrote: Then there's horse racing...the bain of my life! I've worked bloody hard at this, recording races where I can, playing around with a ton of indicators and I just can't make it happen for me. Honestly I wish I'd never bothered trying to learn it, it's the first time in my life where I realised that hard work actually doesn't pay off. I'm going to keep sticking at it though, I've worked to hard to just throw in the towel.
Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!
consty1....
best advice i can give, is this and it worked for me, dont listen to what people say on forums, even this one (with many people,not all)...
Yes you get a few genuine people, but most are not at all sincere, open or helpful, and they will de-rail your efforts with bad advice/mumbo jumbo, and downright p taking...
good luck
best advice i can give, is this and it worked for me, dont listen to what people say on forums, even this one (with many people,not all)...
Yes you get a few genuine people, but most are not at all sincere, open or helpful, and they will de-rail your efforts with bad advice/mumbo jumbo, and downright p taking...
good luck
I think Haichless you are being a bit unfair to the many experienced traders on the forum who have given sound advice over the years. I address the remainder of the post to Consty1.
I frequently communicate my experience both in the forum and via email contact but I do find that a lot of BA users new to the scene are often confused about the process of trading and fail to recognise that every market requires a different approach. At its simplest level markets are either "event driven" and follow very specific patterns or they are "opinionated" where the odds can appear to move in strange and unpredictable ways.
Event driven markets such as Soccer move approximately in line with Poisson until an event such as a goal is scored and then the market will reset itself before resuming a poisson -1 state. Tennis is another example where points scored and games won determine a very easy to follow distribution. Even in-running horse racing is event driven and the odds move directly in accordance with how well the horse is running. All of these Event Driven markets present a challenge to traders and gaining an edge, usually with some combination of related events in different markets, is perfectly possible and by its very nature all the events that move such markets are predictable and can be managed to procure a profit. They appeal to traders who find it easy to understand how the relationship between events and odds are written in stone.
Opinion driven markets like pre race trading or Reality shows can therefore confuse the novice trader because "it appears" there are few or no "events" that affect the odds. The fact of the matter is that in these markets odds movements can appear to be random yet learners still attempt to trade them in the same way they do Event driven models ie searching for "reasons". So many novices look for logic in the form of an event that would cause a pre race favourite to suddenly shorten or drift but that search usually proves fruitless, frustrating and costly. From time to time you may observe a horse sweating or bolting and see that that "event" has an effect of the horses odds; however trading markets that frequently move independent of an event or that move without the observer "knowing" what event caused the movement requires a completely different approach.
The truth is that NO ONE will ever know all the events that cause such markets to move in the manner they do, so like Roy Walker (Catchphrase) used to say, "trade what you see"....
I frequently communicate my experience both in the forum and via email contact but I do find that a lot of BA users new to the scene are often confused about the process of trading and fail to recognise that every market requires a different approach. At its simplest level markets are either "event driven" and follow very specific patterns or they are "opinionated" where the odds can appear to move in strange and unpredictable ways.
Event driven markets such as Soccer move approximately in line with Poisson until an event such as a goal is scored and then the market will reset itself before resuming a poisson -1 state. Tennis is another example where points scored and games won determine a very easy to follow distribution. Even in-running horse racing is event driven and the odds move directly in accordance with how well the horse is running. All of these Event Driven markets present a challenge to traders and gaining an edge, usually with some combination of related events in different markets, is perfectly possible and by its very nature all the events that move such markets are predictable and can be managed to procure a profit. They appeal to traders who find it easy to understand how the relationship between events and odds are written in stone.
Opinion driven markets like pre race trading or Reality shows can therefore confuse the novice trader because "it appears" there are few or no "events" that affect the odds. The fact of the matter is that in these markets odds movements can appear to be random yet learners still attempt to trade them in the same way they do Event driven models ie searching for "reasons". So many novices look for logic in the form of an event that would cause a pre race favourite to suddenly shorten or drift but that search usually proves fruitless, frustrating and costly. From time to time you may observe a horse sweating or bolting and see that that "event" has an effect of the horses odds; however trading markets that frequently move independent of an event or that move without the observer "knowing" what event caused the movement requires a completely different approach.
The truth is that NO ONE will ever know all the events that cause such markets to move in the manner they do, so like Roy Walker (Catchphrase) used to say, "trade what you see"....
Good post James and I can relate to looking for a reason for why the horse racing markets move, I still do it from time to time.
This thread was pretty much the start of my trading journey and I certainly wouldn't regard myself as a novice anymore. I'm pleased that I've been able to become profitable trading football. I think it was Le Tiss who told me to trade the sports you enjoy, and for me at least I've excelled when doing this. I'm looking forward to a big football season next term.
I feel like I'm really close with horse racing. I get a lot right, it's just the little details that are slowing me down at the minute and finding that level of consistency. Mugs blog is definitely helpful and has got me thinking about certain scenarios in a different light. At the same time it's important in my eyes to create your own style and strategy and just take snippets of info from other sources rather than try to mimic someone else.
My advice if there's any newbie traders browsing this thread is to concentrate on the sport you have a passion for and be prepared to study bloody hard. It won't feel like a chore when all your hard work is based around the sport you love.
This thread was pretty much the start of my trading journey and I certainly wouldn't regard myself as a novice anymore. I'm pleased that I've been able to become profitable trading football. I think it was Le Tiss who told me to trade the sports you enjoy, and for me at least I've excelled when doing this. I'm looking forward to a big football season next term.
I feel like I'm really close with horse racing. I get a lot right, it's just the little details that are slowing me down at the minute and finding that level of consistency. Mugs blog is definitely helpful and has got me thinking about certain scenarios in a different light. At the same time it's important in my eyes to create your own style and strategy and just take snippets of info from other sources rather than try to mimic someone else.
My advice if there's any newbie traders browsing this thread is to concentrate on the sport you have a passion for and be prepared to study bloody hard. It won't feel like a chore when all your hard work is based around the sport you love.
It almost certainly was me, because I've given that advice to a fewConsty1 wrote: I think it was Le Tiss who told me to trade the sports you enjoy, and for me at least I've excelled when doing this. I'm looking forward to a big football season next term.
It simply stems from my rollercoaster ride of profit/loss in the early days. I kept detailed recordings of all my trades with various excel analysis. As a result patterns emerged. I found my main bulk of success was on the sports I loved, the sports I watched the most, had most knowledge on and found form studying enjoyable, not a chore.
I don't like horse racing, I have little knowledge on it & couldn't look at horses parading around a ring & pick out the most impressive looking. My horse racing trading was in the red, I only had success on the major races, like today's Derby.
I think that is a good starting point for newbies. Increasing your confidence is massively important, and invariably it's easier to achieve this on markets that you have knowledge on
hi guys,
Just spent last couple of hours reading this thread and some of the links in here, some great advice and somethings I can relate to already after just a couple of days trading. I'm finding the horse racing really hard, no matter what I do it always seems to go against me. Where as in the football markets are pretty straightforward the odds only going one way until something like a goal happens and I have had some success with this by scalping the draw or 1.5 goals markets etc.
I have a real passion for horse racing so I really want to succeed in trading it. Going back to the start of this thread and the Consty1's frustrations with his horse racing trading, I can see myself going in the same direction, the markets just seem to move so randomly.
Still its early days yet but "Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!"
Just spent last couple of hours reading this thread and some of the links in here, some great advice and somethings I can relate to already after just a couple of days trading. I'm finding the horse racing really hard, no matter what I do it always seems to go against me. Where as in the football markets are pretty straightforward the odds only going one way until something like a goal happens and I have had some success with this by scalping the draw or 1.5 goals markets etc.
I have a real passion for horse racing so I really want to succeed in trading it. Going back to the start of this thread and the Consty1's frustrations with his horse racing trading, I can see myself going in the same direction, the markets just seem to move so randomly.
Still its early days yet but "Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!"
It may appear random, but it isn't. The market appears to have random reasons for moving, there are so many variables in racing we will never know the reasons. Some are obvious, like a horse misbehaving. Most are not. The market has to stay in balance. I tried to explain in in my blog artical http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/education ... -a-market/ It save me typing it all out again.kroni wrote:hi guys,
Just spent last couple of hours reading this thread and some of the links in here, some great advice and somethings I can relate to already after just a couple of days trading. I'm finding the horse racing really hard, no matter what I do it always seems to go against me. Where as in the football markets are pretty straightforward the odds only going one way until something like a goal happens and I have had some success with this by scalping the draw or 1.5 goals markets etc.
I have a real passion for horse racing so I really want to succeed in trading it. Going back to the start of this thread and the Consty1's frustrations with his horse racing trading, I can see myself going in the same direction, the markets just seem to move so randomly.
Still its early days yet but "Please tell me there's a moment it just clicks into place!"
In football there is structure to the market (in play) the 1.5 market will decay unless a goal or sending off. You know exactly what it is going to do. The Racing markets are the hardest to trade, no question. The learning curve is steep and harsh. I wish you all the best. MG
thanks MG, just been watching your video's and have to say they are great and explained really well. I think I understand it a whole lot more now. You do make it look so easy. The problems I think I've been having is reacting to just to small movement in the markets which could just be the slack in the book as you explained. I'll give it another go this afternoon and see how I go.
well, I think I did ok today with abit more knowledge under my belt, was still a losing day and I made mistake of going in running afew times but also got lucky once when it went in running.
another few questions I have:
How do you prepare for a days trading on the nags?
Do you go through the races before hand looking for the opportunities for later in the day, and what would you look for in the race?
I had a look in the morning on oddschecker to maybe identify some steamers but It didn't really go my way as maybe its too late by then and they kind of drifted out abit.
Would you not look at any races at all beforehand and just move from race to race every 10 minutes through the afternoon trading when you see a good opportunity?
another few questions I have:
How do you prepare for a days trading on the nags?
Do you go through the races before hand looking for the opportunities for later in the day, and what would you look for in the race?
I had a look in the morning on oddschecker to maybe identify some steamers but It didn't really go my way as maybe its too late by then and they kind of drifted out abit.
Would you not look at any races at all beforehand and just move from race to race every 10 minutes through the afternoon trading when you see a good opportunity?
Welcome to the world of trading.
If you haven't already done so,download the betangel manual and read through, refer back to what sections interest you.
Study forum videos and betangel videos. Then, this is only a suggestion; Start with finding a newspaper (tabloids tend to be the best) that shows each races form and past runnings of each horse. Practice putting together a strategy (eg 1st favourite for a win, laying the 3rd favourite to lose).
Keep records of what you do, so you can spot any trends of what you are doing (rightly or wrongly)
Start with small stakes and few (eg 1-3) offset ticks.
(Preferably with offset greening up). Winnnigs at fist are small (a few pence).
Gain experience by practice first of all, pick what and how you would have traded on a race. See how it played out. Real time experience is priceless.
I know its boring, but it works, from this you build up your strategies that will work for you.
Goodluck.
If you haven't already done so,download the betangel manual and read through, refer back to what sections interest you.
Study forum videos and betangel videos. Then, this is only a suggestion; Start with finding a newspaper (tabloids tend to be the best) that shows each races form and past runnings of each horse. Practice putting together a strategy (eg 1st favourite for a win, laying the 3rd favourite to lose).
Keep records of what you do, so you can spot any trends of what you are doing (rightly or wrongly)
Start with small stakes and few (eg 1-3) offset ticks.
(Preferably with offset greening up). Winnnigs at fist are small (a few pence).
Gain experience by practice first of all, pick what and how you would have traded on a race. See how it played out. Real time experience is priceless.
I know its boring, but it works, from this you build up your strategies that will work for you.
Goodluck.
In essence it has already clicked to anyone who has ever made a profit on any trade at any time. The system works and we all get it.
In essence you need to maximise your gains and minimise your losses.
No one on here has fully maximised their gains and completely minimised their losses but what they have done is increased their % of maximised wins and decreased their % of minimised losses.
So on a 10 trade day they have 8 winning trades and 2 losing trades, they dont allow those 2 losing trades to so hugely affect their winning trades.
In monetary terms lets say the 8 winning trades glean a profit of £50 the two losing trades result in a loss of £30 so at the end of the trades they are £20 up and are satisfied.
If you look at newer traders they are winning say 8 trades and hitting a £20 profit (not maximising enough) and here is the killer their losing trades are resulting in losses of £30 so a loss on the day of £10.
The two losing trades are wiping out any profits you make, and this pattern continues until you learn to maximise and minimise.
If we were to take a poll on what % of traders were in profit at any time of a trading day then i expect it would be much higher than the % of traders who were in profit at the end of the trading day.
When you were at school you took exams, you passed 8 of them and failed 2 of them. The failure of the 2 although not ideal didnt affect the passing of the 8.
You must look at trading in the same way, dont let the losses adversly affect your bank/profits in too big a way.
In essence you need to maximise your gains and minimise your losses.
No one on here has fully maximised their gains and completely minimised their losses but what they have done is increased their % of maximised wins and decreased their % of minimised losses.
So on a 10 trade day they have 8 winning trades and 2 losing trades, they dont allow those 2 losing trades to so hugely affect their winning trades.
In monetary terms lets say the 8 winning trades glean a profit of £50 the two losing trades result in a loss of £30 so at the end of the trades they are £20 up and are satisfied.
If you look at newer traders they are winning say 8 trades and hitting a £20 profit (not maximising enough) and here is the killer their losing trades are resulting in losses of £30 so a loss on the day of £10.
The two losing trades are wiping out any profits you make, and this pattern continues until you learn to maximise and minimise.
If we were to take a poll on what % of traders were in profit at any time of a trading day then i expect it would be much higher than the % of traders who were in profit at the end of the trading day.
When you were at school you took exams, you passed 8 of them and failed 2 of them. The failure of the 2 although not ideal didnt affect the passing of the 8.
You must look at trading in the same way, dont let the losses adversly affect your bank/profits in too big a way.
Thought I'd dig this thread up for nostalgic reasons and to remind myself how much of a novice I was back then!
If I could do one thing different from the opening of this thread to now it's that I'd have never even looked at horse racing. It's just incredibly difficult. I've had prolonged periods of good profit (and life time I'm well in profit), especially last year, but sustaining that edge is what's always hindered me. If I was to total the amount of hours I've studied and been active in these markets it would be obscene, and a bit depressing. So yea I pretty much pulled the plug on horse racing a few months back, occasionally I'll dip my toes but it usually doesn't take long for me to be reminded as to how hard these markets are.
I trade almost predominantly football now and do well. When a football market moves, be it pre match or in play, 9 times out of 10 I know why it's moved and this appears to be key to me as a trader. With football I feel like I'm ahead of the market as opposed to feeling behind the market with horse racing.
So yea my 3 years experience (I didn't even think I'd been trading for this long) has told me to trade a sport you enjoy and have a passion for instead of trading something that you've heard can make you the most money. Oh and be prepared to work your arse off for a lengthy period, you have to want it.
If I could do one thing different from the opening of this thread to now it's that I'd have never even looked at horse racing. It's just incredibly difficult. I've had prolonged periods of good profit (and life time I'm well in profit), especially last year, but sustaining that edge is what's always hindered me. If I was to total the amount of hours I've studied and been active in these markets it would be obscene, and a bit depressing. So yea I pretty much pulled the plug on horse racing a few months back, occasionally I'll dip my toes but it usually doesn't take long for me to be reminded as to how hard these markets are.
I trade almost predominantly football now and do well. When a football market moves, be it pre match or in play, 9 times out of 10 I know why it's moved and this appears to be key to me as a trader. With football I feel like I'm ahead of the market as opposed to feeling behind the market with horse racing.
So yea my 3 years experience (I didn't even think I'd been trading for this long) has told me to trade a sport you enjoy and have a passion for instead of trading something that you've heard can make you the most money. Oh and be prepared to work your arse off for a lengthy period, you have to want it.
Well done consty, its not an easy gig these days.
I hate to say it (as I hate being defeated), but I think if I had only found Betfair in the last three years, I may have given it up by now.
Its only because I did exceptionally well in the first 4 years or so, it has carried me and spurned me on to find new edges.
I often think -"If I had spent this many hours on a business rather than trading, would I have been better off?"
Anyway well done..
I hate to say it (as I hate being defeated), but I think if I had only found Betfair in the last three years, I may have given it up by now.
Its only because I did exceptionally well in the first 4 years or so, it has carried me and spurned me on to find new edges.
I often think -"If I had spent this many hours on a business rather than trading, would I have been better off?"
Anyway well done..
Cheers Peter. I was speaking to a trading mate on Twitter earlier and we both said we wouldn't have started knowing what we know now. But there's no point looking in to the past, I've got this far and have developed good profits with football so I'm not going to stop now.
If I can make the type of profits in football over the next year which I think are realistic then I'll probably be saying that trading was all worth the effort!
If I can make the type of profits in football over the next year which I think are realistic then I'll probably be saying that trading was all worth the effort!