Why is it that a lot of races have a very short priced favourite but with the other horses at much bigger odds? Often, the short priced favourite doesn't appear to run that much better than the rest. I would think if it is so short, it must be twice as fast but more often than not, it only wins by a small amount.
So, are these races good or bad to trade? I would think if they are so short they can not lose so all the others are good to lay then back...but are they short for a reason or not?
Short priced favourites
I imagine that the difference between a good horse and a great one is quite subtle (just as, with human athletes, a fraction of a second can be the difference between winning the race and coming nowhere).redtra wrote:Why is it that a lot of races have a very short priced favourite but with the other horses at much bigger odds? Often, the short priced favourite doesn't appear to run that much better than the rest. I would think if it is so short, it must be twice as fast but more often than not, it only wins by a small amount.
Depends on your style of trading. They're good if you're a trend trader.redtra wrote:So, are these races good or bad to trade?
Yes. The market sometimes gets it wrong with individual horses, but overall the prices at the off are extremely accurate.redtra wrote:I would think if they are so short they can not lose so all the others are good to lay then back...but are they short for a reason or not?
Jeff
thanks Jeff, fascinating stuff. It's puzzled me for some time why they are like that so it's good to know there is a valid reason.
Just a thought, but if the markets are accurate at the off, then all the time leading up to that point is a kind of journey where the price is honing in to where it should be. So the nearer the off, the less importance we should place on the weight of money, at that moment, because it moves too quick for the wom to respond?
Just a thought, but if the markets are accurate at the off, then all the time leading up to that point is a kind of journey where the price is honing in to where it should be. So the nearer the off, the less importance we should place on the weight of money, at that moment, because it moves too quick for the wom to respond?
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convoysur-2
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i have been wondering lately how many favourites win 2 and 3 year old maiden races they can start off really short,just watching i dont think many actually win,how would i find the proper figures on this ? where ?
marc
marc