The trend is your friend until the end.
I know you are a 'trendy' trader but I've always been counter trend for the simple reason that pre-off it's impossible for trends to continue for ever on sports markets. Else you could have favourites going off at 1.01 all the time. There has to be a point at which they become lay bets for normal punters.
Happy to accept that there will be persistant steamers and drifters, but my strategy is simply to watch these and wait to see if they break down. If that never happens, I just shrug my shoulders and move on. Not point in opposing something for the sake of it, you have to have evidence it will reverse.
On the flip side you often follow a steamer for example and see it heavily back, pause, profit taking kicks in then it resumes. If I see that I wont oppose and follow the trend.
Discuss Trading Mistakes & receive Feedback
True, but would you agree that pre-off horse racing markets have a tendency to trend, and that they generally trend in one overall direction (with a few reversals along the way)?Euler wrote:The trend is your friend until the end.
Are you referring to the 'buying in the dips' principle?Euler wrote:On the flip side you often follow a steamer for example and see it heavily back, pause, profit taking kicks in then it resumes. If I see that I wont oppose and follow the trend.
Jeff
I sometimes laugh at the responses in the forum, one thing is constant, find the markets you are good in.
Horse racing is good for a lot of people, but not for others.
Numerous markets are best for other people. One thing is find the markets that work for you. everybody is different. This means what works for one person will not work for the next.
Strange concept, but here's hoping
Iknow
Horse racing is good for a lot of people, but not for others.
Numerous markets are best for other people. One thing is find the markets that work for you. everybody is different. This means what works for one person will not work for the next.
Strange concept, but here's hoping
IknowNow I under the principle of most trading i.e going in and coming out sometimes repeatedly either in profit or loss, but I need to get my head round something.
So if I back a favourite in a horse race(which I thought shouldnt be a favourite) and let it go in play and then trade out for a profit mid race does that make me a gambler or a trader?
Simarily if I 'lay' a footy team against the win and then trade out after the opposite team score (so green) does that make me a gambler or trader?
What does the forum think. Has no baring on anything whatsoever its just psycological to me thats all and I would appreciate opinions.
Roger
So if I back a favourite in a horse race(which I thought shouldnt be a favourite) and let it go in play and then trade out for a profit mid race does that make me a gambler or a trader?
Simarily if I 'lay' a footy team against the win and then trade out after the opposite team score (so green) does that make me a gambler or trader?
What does the forum think. Has no baring on anything whatsoever its just psycological to me thats all and I would appreciate opinions.
Roger
Firstly, thanks for taking the time to share your comments James.
I've attached an image showing a similar trade setup from a race I traded today at Haydock. It didn't quite work out as I expected but it was a trade with positive expectancy. And that's what I'm usually after.
I've also attached charts/notes that I've made over the months looking for similar patterns in the market. They're 50:50 setups, but by backing at a low risk Entry point (usually right at its peak) and trying to maintain a decent risk:reward ratio I expect over a number of trade this strategy should work in my favor.
At that point the market was 50:50 and usually if it's at the peak then I'm happy to take a half chance on the basis of maintaining a decent risk:reward ratio. In this particular trade it didn't work out. But that was Ok. I was prepared to take a 2-3 tick loss. What caught me out was a very sharp drift that left me chasing for an exit.James1st wrote:I just want to ask you one question and that is "why" did you decide that the hesitation at ~7.6 was an indication that a reversal was imminent?
I've attached an image showing a similar trade setup from a race I traded today at Haydock. It didn't quite work out as I expected but it was a trade with positive expectancy. And that's what I'm usually after.
I wan't entirely certain that a reversal was due but I felt that the drift had exhausted and opposing it but keeping the downside to 2-3 tick loss was acceptable.James1st wrote:From the chart I cannot see why you felt that 7.6 was a) a reversal point and b) a good entry point for a reverse trade.
I've also attached charts/notes that I've made over the months looking for similar patterns in the market. They're 50:50 setups, but by backing at a low risk Entry point (usually right at its peak) and trying to maintain a decent risk:reward ratio I expect over a number of trade this strategy should work in my favor.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Thanks Jeff.
You're right, I'm not deluding myself that practice will help cross the barrier. I've learnt long back that the wrong practice does no good, no matter how long or hard I work. What I'm more interested in is simply channeling my energy to finding out where I'm wrong regardless of P/L. i.e. by being open about my trade entry/exit specifics and trying to understand the mistakes so that the practice sessions to follow can be made that slightly better.Ferru123 wrote:There's little you need to get right to cross the barrier from loss to profit, so you need to ask yourself why you are still making a loss. It's possible that, through practice, you will eventually cross the barrier, but I consider that highly unlikely. If your existing approach was going to yield a profit, it would have done so by now. I think what you need is a paradigm shift, and to consider in particular your psychological approach to trading.
I scalp sparingly (only at the quality meetings) other than that it's mostly looking for bigger moves. Though, counter to what you said, it's not my psychology or the fact that I let my loses run and cut profit. I wish you could see me trade live. I usually cut out for a loss almost every time and hence I get lots of small loses that not only bring down my strike rate to below acceptable levels but also become a cumulative large loss at end of day. By they way, I rarely exit a trade for few ticks. Once I have a positive expectancy on a trade by 3-5 ticks I'm happy to let it run till off or scratch if it turns back.Ferru123 wrote:From your contributions to the 'Chart of the Day' thread, my guess is that you are fond of trend trading. I imagine that where you lose money isn't because you lack the fine judgement needed to assess the market to the nth degree; it's that, like many traders, you cut your profits and let your losses run.
As I live on the other side of the world to you, that's not going to happen soon!switesh wrote:I wish you could see me trade live..
However, why not post a video in the forum and ask for feedback?I would be interested in seeing a video of you trading, particularly as I find your inability to make a profit puzzling. You're clearly a smart guy who has spent a lot of time studying the markets, and you've just told me that you don't let your losses run, yet you must be doing something to consistently make a loss. Maybe recording a video, sticking it on YouTube, and then putting it in the forum might reveal where you're going wrong.
Jeff
Thanks for you comments Walshy.
Most traders (especially beginners) may find it suitable to trade with minimum stakes. However I'm not a beginner, despite making a daily loss. I know it sounds weird. And my personal take on this is that the staking must be 'just right' so that I don't get too relaxed about my loses (by using minimum stakes), and I must be able to feel the pain of a loss, but also not to a degree where my heart is racing (by over staking). Hence by using my current stakes I can free myself of emotional baggage and at the same time be mindful of my loses.
Yes, my current compounding loses are a heavy price for a trading education. But rather that cutting down on stakes, I'm just trying to trade with the same free & competitive spirit everyday hoping the odd occasional good day(s) will keep me playing the game longer.
I think you make a very good point here - "Why trade with stakes above minimum".walshy wrote:The one point I'd like to make is if you expect to make a loss on most days, why are you trading with stakes above minimum? Currently your losses are the price of your trading education so why pay more for it than you need too.
Most traders (especially beginners) may find it suitable to trade with minimum stakes. However I'm not a beginner, despite making a daily loss. I know it sounds weird. And my personal take on this is that the staking must be 'just right' so that I don't get too relaxed about my loses (by using minimum stakes), and I must be able to feel the pain of a loss, but also not to a degree where my heart is racing (by over staking). Hence by using my current stakes I can free myself of emotional baggage and at the same time be mindful of my loses.
Yes, my current compounding loses are a heavy price for a trading education. But rather that cutting down on stakes, I'm just trying to trade with the same free & competitive spirit everyday hoping the odd occasional good day(s) will keep me playing the game longer.
Put yourself in the shoes of the bookmakers/market makers, and imagine you are being paid for your decisions.
You would be more risk averse and more cautious in your analysis if you were being paid to get the market correct.
As a matter of fact any paid employment would suffice in focusing your efforts. If you were a rocket scientist or mechanic you would have been trained to such a high level, every day would receive on the job training and would be continuously learning - yet still you wouldn’t know everything and would make mistakes.
Every variable quoted above by other traders and loads more need to be taken into consideration before a back/lay decision is made. It takes me around 4 to 5 hours of work before racing starts on a day like today, then another 3 hours of trading to eke out a profit.
I find the only way I can compete with the market is to treat it in the same way as the odds compilers, they are working full time on the markets (and have more bodies to do this)and I am trying to compete with them, so I must work full time on it on the days I am trading.
99.9% of my trading is horses and it’s taken me 25 years of punting and trading to get to a regular profitable position, and I still get horses/markets wrong but as long as I get more right than wrong then the profits accumulate.
My one nugget of advice is to specialise in 1 sport and then just trade on races or matches that you are 100% sure of, then even if you are wrong you can justify the trade to yourself.
You would be more risk averse and more cautious in your analysis if you were being paid to get the market correct.
As a matter of fact any paid employment would suffice in focusing your efforts. If you were a rocket scientist or mechanic you would have been trained to such a high level, every day would receive on the job training and would be continuously learning - yet still you wouldn’t know everything and would make mistakes.
Every variable quoted above by other traders and loads more need to be taken into consideration before a back/lay decision is made. It takes me around 4 to 5 hours of work before racing starts on a day like today, then another 3 hours of trading to eke out a profit.
I find the only way I can compete with the market is to treat it in the same way as the odds compilers, they are working full time on the markets (and have more bodies to do this)and I am trying to compete with them, so I must work full time on it on the days I am trading.
99.9% of my trading is horses and it’s taken me 25 years of punting and trading to get to a regular profitable position, and I still get horses/markets wrong but as long as I get more right than wrong then the profits accumulate.
My one nugget of advice is to specialise in 1 sport and then just trade on races or matches that you are 100% sure of, then even if you are wrong you can justify the trade to yourself.
lord wrote: 99.9% of my trading is horses and it’s taken me 25 years of punting and trading to get to a regular profitable position, and I still get horses/markets wrong but as long as I get more right than wrong then the profits accumulate. .
Sounds like the 10,000 hour rule. http://www.gladwell.com/outliers/index.html
From Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outliers_(book).
"A common theme that appears throughout Outliers is the "10,000-Hour Rule", based on a study by Anders Ericsson. Gladwell claims that greatness requires enormous time, using the source of The Beatles' musical talents and Gates' computer savvy as examples.[3] The Beatles performed live in Hamburg, Germany over 1,200 times from 1960 to 1964, amassing more than 10,000 hours of playing time, therefore meeting the 10,000-Hour Rule. Gladwell asserts that all of the time The Beatles spent performing shaped their talent, and quotes Beatles' biographer Philip Norman as saying, "So by the time they returned to England from Hamburg, Germany, 'they sounded like no one else. It was the making of them.'"[3] Gates met the 10,000-Hour Rule when he gained access to a high school computer in 1968 at the age of 13, and spent 10,000 hours programming on it.[3]"
Just one trade for me today then i gave up!
2.15 Nottingham I backed grandad chunk because it was steaming for ages. Then it drifted well out, so I traded out for a small loss. Then I backed the one which was now steaming in...relation alexander and looked as though it would do well. But then it drifted right out, so I had a loss on it. At the same time, grandad chunk steamed all the way in...then I gave up and went for a bike ride perplexed!
Should I have accepted the first loss and went onto the next race or what?
2.15 Nottingham I backed grandad chunk because it was steaming for ages. Then it drifted well out, so I traded out for a small loss. Then I backed the one which was now steaming in...relation alexander and looked as though it would do well. But then it drifted right out, so I had a loss on it. At the same time, grandad chunk steamed all the way in...then I gave up and went for a bike ride perplexed!
Should I have accepted the first loss and went onto the next race or what?
That's a classic newbie mistake, to keep changing your mind.
I look for an opportunity and if it's not there I forget it. If I do something and get it wrong I accept it, but still look for another opportunity. But one thing I don't do is change my mind on what I am trading and why.
Imagine you are trading a football match, the home team is 1.23 so you back them. The away team score, so you back them, the home team equalise so you back the draw. In the extra time the home team score and you lose.
If you just backed them you would have won. If you would have backed the away team, you could have traded out for a profit. If you backed the draw you could have traded out for a profit. So in fact there were very few situations where you could actually lose. But in this scenario because you kept changing your mind you ended up losing multiples of your original stake when in fact there were multiple opportunities to profit.
On racing its easy to keep focused because if you don't see the set up you are looking for, there is another opportunity that is probably just around the corner.
I look for an opportunity and if it's not there I forget it. If I do something and get it wrong I accept it, but still look for another opportunity. But one thing I don't do is change my mind on what I am trading and why.
Imagine you are trading a football match, the home team is 1.23 so you back them. The away team score, so you back them, the home team equalise so you back the draw. In the extra time the home team score and you lose.
If you just backed them you would have won. If you would have backed the away team, you could have traded out for a profit. If you backed the draw you could have traded out for a profit. So in fact there were very few situations where you could actually lose. But in this scenario because you kept changing your mind you ended up losing multiples of your original stake when in fact there were multiple opportunities to profit.
On racing its easy to keep focused because if you don't see the set up you are looking for, there is another opportunity that is probably just around the corner.
Euler wrote:That's a classic newbie mistake, to keep changing your mind.
I look for an opportunity and if it's not there I forget it. If I do something and get it wrong I accept it, but still look for another opportunity. But one thing I don't do is change my mind on what I am trading and why.
Imagine you are trading a football match, the home team is 1.23 so you back them. The away team score, so you back them, the home team equalise so you back the draw. In the extra time the home team score and you lose.
If you just backed them you would have won. If you would have backed the away team, you could have traded out for a profit. If you backed the draw you could have traded out for a profit. So in fact there were very few situations where you could actually lose. But in this scenario because you kept changing your mind you ended up losing multiples of your original stake when in fact there were multiple opportunities to profit.
On racing its easy to keep focused because if you don't see the set up you are looking for, there is another opportunity that is probably just around the corner.
Thanks for pointing out my mistake euler, really appreciate that because it didn't occur to me that is was a mistake, I just assumed it was all part of trading. Now I see clearly if i had stayed with the original selection, and accepted the ebbs and flows, it would have ended in profit. By switching selections, I was actually chasing a loss, and making things difficult.
This shows I am over complicating my trades so from now on I will do things a bit differently to simplify them. Looking forward to trying something new!