To make a profit with trading you have to able to predict the market with a greater than random chance.
Ferr123 asked if you can go into the market randomly and still make profit. I think now that you can BUT only if you can read the market so that you can exit for a smaller loss (if the market goes against you) or maximise your profit (if the market goes for you).
However it makes more sense to try and read the market before entering AND while you are in to determine the best exit. I have often changed my mind and gone for damage limitation mode, but sometimes if the reason you entered the market is still valid, it pays to stick to your guns.
But the essential is that you have to have a feel for where the market is going at some point.
Discuss Trading Mistakes & receive Feedback
I've just noticed a spot that catches me a lot. I tend to let my profits run too long in general and I'd say I lose a significant amount of profit by not anticipating the reversal enough but sometimes it's just impossible to get out once it's bounced!
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
hi consty and los
getting it right is very hard,but one thing to keep in mind is that when the drift is coming to an end the big boys that layed all the way up also see the end coming ,difference is that they have to dump alot of money back into the market to close the trade ,thats why u will always see it bounce back 3-4 thicks,
at least thats the way i see it.and when there is a slight reversal the sheep follow.
Marc
correct me if im wrong lads ???
getting it right is very hard,but one thing to keep in mind is that when the drift is coming to an end the big boys that layed all the way up also see the end coming ,difference is that they have to dump alot of money back into the market to close the trade ,thats why u will always see it bounce back 3-4 thicks,
at least thats the way i see it.and when there is a slight reversal the sheep follow.
Marc
correct me if im wrong lads ???
If you see a steep run up like that the faster it goes up the quicker people will bail when the run is exhausted. You have the double whammy of people in profit and people panicing to get out.
I tend to look for the weight of money to break down to signal an exit, but......
My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.
I tend to look for the weight of money to break down to signal an exit, but......
My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.
I would go for position in queue. Very often the odds will only touch positions like 4.1/6.2/10.5 before coming back so having the position in advance could be the difference between getting matched and not.Euler wrote:If you see a steep run up like that the faster it goes up the quicker people will bail when the run is exhausted. You have the double whammy of people in profit and people panicing to get out.
I tend to look for the weight of money to break down to signal an exit, but......
My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.
You could potentially look at other runners too, how far will they go and where is the corresponding movement likely to go to on the horse you are trading?
EDIT: A huge order can come in and take your exit positions early, and you can get back involved when the market resettles.
If I were thinking along the same lines I'd say the closing order is placed roughly closer to the point where the sharp drift commenced - simply due the mean reversion principle.Euler wrote:My closing orders are already in the market shortly after I enter it. Discuss amongst yourself to work out why.
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Here's an example from a trade I did today in the 4:50 at Fontwell.
A clear example to demonstrate how I catch a reversal. I was a bit late in catching the top around 7.4, but nonetheless I still did alright by entering at 7.
My entry point was determined by watching the other runners ease off a bit and the same point about WOM that Peter pointed out earlier. My exit point was placed beyond 5 ticks and I looking to scale out based on how low the price would go.
$9 green for using only $35 stake. That's sunshine to me!
These types of trades, as I pointed out earlier may not always work out in favor, but all I'm really keen on doing is keeping that risk:reward ratio in control (i.e. if it doesn't work out then exit for 3 ticks else let it run for atleast 5 ticks or further if possible) so that over a series of such trades this strategy can be net positive.
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Yes, I use WOM, but sparingly. But I'll certainly ignore it in weak or erratic markets because such type of markets move and turn way too often that looking at WOM can lead to frustration.L.o.S wrote:do you use WoM a lot?
If you watch some of Mug's videos you'll see he doesn't even use it very much (if any at all) and still does a fantastic job with entry and exits. So I guess it might be a personal preference thing, but WOM is a decent guide in steady trending markets.
Jeff made a good suggestion to post up videos of my trades so that other traders can see where I'm going wrong.
So here a video of one of the trades that I totally stuffed up today despite trying to do the right things.
Occasionally I get a good trade here and there, but I think this video is a perfect illustration of where my loses come from (and how I think about Entry and Exits) and how I end up net negative for most days.
http://goo.gl/nFVyH
All constructive comments much appreciated.
Forgot to mention earlier that there's an audio commentary narrating what I'm seeing, thinking, and trying to do in the market.
So here a video of one of the trades that I totally stuffed up today despite trying to do the right things.
Occasionally I get a good trade here and there, but I think this video is a perfect illustration of where my loses come from (and how I think about Entry and Exits) and how I end up net negative for most days.
http://goo.gl/nFVyH
All constructive comments much appreciated.
Forgot to mention earlier that there's an audio commentary narrating what I'm seeing, thinking, and trying to do in the market.
Last edited by switesh on Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Hi Switesh
Nice video.
Have a look at 3.41. You'd tried for a plausible counter-trend trade. I'm not sure whether there was compelling evidence of a big market counter-move, but it was arguably worth a punt, and you ended up with just a small loss. However, at this stage loads of money has been matched between 2.4 and 2.56. That tells me that the market has decided, at least for now, that it's happy to stay in that range. If you try to trend trade in a ranging market, there's a good chance you'll end up constantly getting stopped out for a loss, so it might have been better waiting till the market had exited that range before re-entering the fray.
Also, I wouldn't be afraid of trading with the trend. I know it's tempting to think that the market is about to snap back and leave you in the red - and it might - but it's not unknown for the laws of gravity to work on markets that have already been steaming!
Jeff
Nice video.
Have a look at 3.41. You'd tried for a plausible counter-trend trade. I'm not sure whether there was compelling evidence of a big market counter-move, but it was arguably worth a punt, and you ended up with just a small loss. However, at this stage loads of money has been matched between 2.4 and 2.56. That tells me that the market has decided, at least for now, that it's happy to stay in that range. If you try to trend trade in a ranging market, there's a good chance you'll end up constantly getting stopped out for a loss, so it might have been better waiting till the market had exited that range before re-entering the fray.
Also, I wouldn't be afraid of trading with the trend. I know it's tempting to think that the market is about to snap back and leave you in the red - and it might - but it's not unknown for the laws of gravity to work on markets that have already been steaming!
Jeff
PS It might be better to close by taking money from the queue rather than offering, particularly when you have a horse like Papradon, which is moving against your position with determination. Yes, you might get matched, but when you offer to lay in a rapidly drifting market, don't be too surprised if you don't get lots of takers.
Jeff
Jeff
This is going to be ugly SW
My observations - Let me say firstly that critiquing a video after the event in hindsight is the easiest thing to do. If you don't have your own money in jeopardy then it's so much easier. I don't want to micro trade this. But here are the main points as I see them with the (limited) info I can see on the screen.
1) The trend on the fav was well started when the video started. There was no threat to it, everything else was drifting. You sat and watched it and hoped it retraced. I was filling up my wallet with cash as fast as I could. If you walk by a an ATM and there is cash pumping out of it onto the road, do you stop and help yourself to a few quid or do you wait until the repairman comes and then stick your card in to withdraw your cash?
2) The 2nd fav was never an option to back. There were never any clear signals that it was going to come back. Look at the Betfair graph.
3) The 3rd fav moving in was being facilitated by the drift on the 2 outsiders. The fav was taking the book percentage of the 2nd fav.
4) Remember the way the horses line up in a jumps race will impact the last seconds of a market.
I don't think you made any horrendous mistakes. Other than missing the biggest gamble of the day, and backing the 2nd fav when it was drifting
I still think you have information overload.
My preferred set up would be:
Look at the long term BF graphs before I start to trade to understand where the market is up to that point.
Have the ladders across the screen like you have already.
Access to live betting show info from sportinglife.com (I talk about this all the time in my videos)
The ladders will show exactly what is going on. (This is how I trade when I use my Mac and I can get 7 ladders across the screen)
SW this sounds like I'm taking the piss, but you know I am trying to help you. You're the hardest working and most deserving guy I know. You're so close, but I think your problem is you over analyse. This means you pick up every little ebb and flow in the market and miss the stuff that is obvious. My message to you is "Less is More" - try it.
My observations - Let me say firstly that critiquing a video after the event in hindsight is the easiest thing to do. If you don't have your own money in jeopardy then it's so much easier. I don't want to micro trade this. But here are the main points as I see them with the (limited) info I can see on the screen.
1) The trend on the fav was well started when the video started. There was no threat to it, everything else was drifting. You sat and watched it and hoped it retraced. I was filling up my wallet with cash as fast as I could. If you walk by a an ATM and there is cash pumping out of it onto the road, do you stop and help yourself to a few quid or do you wait until the repairman comes and then stick your card in to withdraw your cash?
2) The 2nd fav was never an option to back. There were never any clear signals that it was going to come back. Look at the Betfair graph.
3) The 3rd fav moving in was being facilitated by the drift on the 2 outsiders. The fav was taking the book percentage of the 2nd fav.
4) Remember the way the horses line up in a jumps race will impact the last seconds of a market.
I don't think you made any horrendous mistakes. Other than missing the biggest gamble of the day, and backing the 2nd fav when it was drifting
I still think you have information overload.My preferred set up would be:
Look at the long term BF graphs before I start to trade to understand where the market is up to that point.
Have the ladders across the screen like you have already.
Access to live betting show info from sportinglife.com (I talk about this all the time in my videos)
The ladders will show exactly what is going on. (This is how I trade when I use my Mac and I can get 7 ladders across the screen)
SW this sounds like I'm taking the piss, but you know I am trying to help you. You're the hardest working and most deserving guy I know. You're so close, but I think your problem is you over analyse. This means you pick up every little ebb and flow in the market and miss the stuff that is obvious. My message to you is "Less is More" - try it.
MG - I think that's a fair review.
Switesh - I'd suggest you try the following, just as an experiment, and perhaps with small stakes. Where you would normally enter the market with a back, enter with a lay, and vice versa. You might be surprised by the results.
I honestly think that the big mistake you're making is opposing the trend. Whilst Peter and others can do it successfully, trying to emulate their success without knowing exactly what they do could prove costly. Most financials technical analysis books will tell you not to try to pick tops and bottoms, and there's probably a lesson to be learned there. They refer to it as trying to catch a falling knife for a reason!
Jeff
Switesh - I'd suggest you try the following, just as an experiment, and perhaps with small stakes. Where you would normally enter the market with a back, enter with a lay, and vice versa. You might be surprised by the results.
I honestly think that the big mistake you're making is opposing the trend. Whilst Peter and others can do it successfully, trying to emulate their success without knowing exactly what they do could prove costly. Most financials technical analysis books will tell you not to try to pick tops and bottoms, and there's probably a lesson to be learned there. They refer to it as trying to catch a falling knife for a reason!
Jeff