New Trader + blog

[Yirkaa]

Hey Guys,

I just wanna introduce myself a bit. I am Yirkaa and I am trading for about a 1,5 month now. I am using Bet Angel for 16 days and it opend up whole lot of possibilites for me. I decided to try trading after reading Jim Makos blog about statictical analysis on horse markets. I tried to apply it to my papertrading and to my surprise I was in profit since the day one.

Paper trading is 1 thing and real money other but after reading Adam Heatcote's blog I was decided. I know he was probably a genius but if I could achieve 10% of his profits I would be happy as a clam

My first days were somewhat encouraging. I made steady profits for 5 days or so but then got wiped out on one day. I wasnt going in play or anything. Everything just wentt the other way and I did some loss chasing.

After that I stumbled upon a MugsGame's blog and watched all of his videos. I pretty much try to adopt his style a now. I never was interested in scalping because my early papertrade succes was from big swings so why change something that works?

I decided to make for myself a challenge (original I know ) and you can track my progress and thoughts about trading on here. http://yirkaatrading.wordpress.com/
I will be happy for any comments. I am not gonna be on this forum much because I know I overthink and overcomlicate things a lot and there is just too much information around. Reading all would just made me spin in circles and turn my brain into jelly. I wanna believe that trading is simple

Thanks for reading

[JollyGreen]

Good luck!!

[Yirkaa]

Thanks JollyGreen. I seem to have fair amount of it so far

[Zenyatta]

Very small stakes you're using so far

If you start using big stakes, beware, because the devils get big and mean. Trust no one. The guys on this forum may seem friendly, but they'd sell their own mothers for a ton of cash, an amusing clock, and a stack of French porn. Big players will try to fleece you mercilessly, using systematic price manipulation of the most cynical kind to get at your cash.

[PeterLe]

Very small stakes you're using so far
The guys on this forum may seem friendly, but they'd sell their own mothers for a ton of cash.....

Zen, a bit strong and to a new forum member may give the wrong impression.
There are LOTS of good advice listed on here each week by seasoned traders..I learn new things every week. There is an eco system and no doubt the best traders take from the newest. That's part of life and any new trader must know that. If nothing else it should inspire the newest to move up that food chain as fast as possible to survive.

Regards
Peter

[kelpie]

I also think that's a bit strong.

There is really good advice on this exchange, and absolutely, plenty of times, David trumps Goliath. Even if Goliath won't admit it!!

Unrelated, I know, but I'm remembering Private Walker in Dad's Army being told by Captain Mainwairing that he's sell this grandmother. Private Walker: "Nah. There's no market for her..."

[Kalumpus]

I am not gonna be on this forum much because I know I overthink and overcomlicate things a lot and there is just too much information around. Reading all would just made me spin in circles and turn my brain into jelly. I wanna believe that trading is simple

Wise words! - cut out the noise, slowly figure what works for you.

[steven1976]

Whilst I 100% agree with your sentiments zenyetta that there are people that using manipulation in many ways, some of which I have no issue with and other ways in which I hope Betfair eventually spot and crack down on it. In general the advice people offer is honest. I don't think you get people leading anyone directly down one road of saying offer lay money at 10s and you will win. I do this for fun and I post as honest as I can.

If you have a real understanding of horses like mugsgame or Jolly then the way I understand they trade is from swing trading due mainly to their knowledge of horses and they have reasons for taking a position. Sometimes jolly even posts up here and there are many people benefited from his posts (me included) as I'm happy to sit on a position for much longer knowing there will be other traders doing the same. Mugs blog shows not just winning trades but even some big loosing trades so his advice I believe is always sincere. I also use some his ideas in regards to laying short term favourites just before the off on longer races over jumps knowing I can take a loss and lose only say 30% of my stake later in the race as the odds can't go to much further down to quick whilst the upside can be quite big.

I've also started doing well on a piece of advice Euler gave some time ago about backing horses that have gone on some of these big drifts pre race. I find sometimes at the off they go out further as it feels like someone is temporarily holding a price even higher to sell out a position. If say a horse has gone from 3s to 5s pre race and then at the off they jump to 8s, I've found it beneficial to have a small back as it feels like someone is just trading with artificial money to hold a price up against the bigger money they may have on the lay side at say 8s.

My advice to anyone looking to scalp who does not know anything about horses would be do not trust all them flashing lights. If you want to trade the numbers, make sure you already know your exit points and your next entry points. I scalp, and a single scalp includes at least 3 positions around the money (usually 2 on the back side and 1 on the lay unless low odds less than 1.8) as I expect the first one to always go against me. Therefore I'll get involved with small stakes no matter what the current price is as I'm quite sure the market will react the same regardless of where the charts are or have been or the odds. I'd imagine I'm one of the most active in terms of number of trades when I play but I only play with very small stakes. If someone goes and sticks 10k up against me dropping the market I'll simply get out and start over again in front of them as I'm not just going to wait for them to sell out my money as I might as well get stuck back in and keep going to the off.

What I've learnt using small stakes is never rely on thinking the market will come back and help you. If you put in your scalp positions in to the market and as you get a back matched if it feels like new money has arrived behind you then it may be worth seeing if a swing develops, if not just get out.

So although I'm one of the strongest opinionated people against manipulation there is still good advice around. We don't have to listen to any of it or take as set in stone but if someone offers advice we can take it and see if there is anything in it for ourselves to test. If it doesn't work then we can just pass it off as some crazy bloke on a forum with crazy ideas.

[Galilee66]

Zenyatta,

That's an incorrect assessment of most of us on here - what would we want with an amusing clock??

G66

[herbie]

I find the general trading advice to be honest and open on this forum...the spoofers and manipulators will try to fleece you,but you can take advantage of that...the way they do it becomes really predictable after watching for a while.

I now make a profit. After years of pain on the inplay footy, I took advice from this forum, that the racing markets come along every few minutes, meaning I can learn and correct my mistakes.

The big things that changed my trading life are:

I taught myself to sit and watch the markets and not trade when I shouldnt. (I still break the rule)

I taught myself to watch the money being matched and not the money in the queues on the ladder.

I taught myself to workout my risk and manage my trade(Im still bad at this)

I taught myself excel, VBA programming to help create the above.

I am not a great trader, I can make a profit of £40 to £60 in a day, I would be better off spending my time working in my Missus' cafe down the road washing dishes some days, but I like the numbers and the challenge it gives me.
I have no interest in horses at all, I once had a go on one and thought it was like being on a motor bike that wouldnt do as I wanted it to do,but I love the numbers...and the game of trading.

I still make really stupid mistakes.

Most of what I know is from watching the numbers and reading this forum.
I have learnt what to do and what not to do from this forum.

We are like a big family on this forum, there are the kind ones, the idiots, the angry ones, the happy ones, the miserable ones, the positive ones, the negatives ones, the cocky ones, the desperate ones, the hungry ones and the ones that ramble.
Im sometimes some of these and sometimes nearly all of these.

Take from this forum what you will, it's better to have a place like this than sitting in a room all on your own trying to work it all out by yourself.

Good luck (you might need a bit of that as well)

herbie

[Yirkaa]

Hey Guys,

Honesty on forum
I do believe there are honest people and honest advices, there is just too much of it and I am well aware of fact that even thought somebody can write you full strategy that it means nothing. Some things you just have to figure out for yourself and then look back and see, "Oh, this guy was right and now I know why." Its called experience and you canť pass up experience on paper (or screen).

Why I use small stakes?
Well, I had a few months where I was punting and it was not unexceptional that I lost 300-400 pounds on some days. I had so large swings it really ate me up from inside. At one point I quadrupled my bank and then I hit it. I lost almost all in matter of 2 weeks. I was lucky to have my starting bankroll intact but I knew punting was not for me anymore. Thing is I am now as angry when I lose 5 pounds on a day trading than when I lost 500 pounds betting. I do not care about the money at this point. For me it is a progress bar and not money I am thinking of withdrawing. I am learning, not earning. My goal is to be able visit Peter Webb's course but I want to have some experience first and small stakes help me dicipline.

Answer to Herbie's post
If I can be trader like you and make daily over 40 pounds, I would be immensely happy because that would make for very healthy living in my country.

I love your part about things that changed your Trading life. I can see that I am focusing on right things and looking for money being matched became actually my biggest indicator after I ignored it for first few weeks.
Sitting and watching markets is so hard, hence the blog I am writing as I am trading. It really works for me well.
I am keeping records but I do not analyze risk/reward ratio because
a) I did not do enough trades yet.
b) I dont want to think too much as long as I am winning.

I am trying for the first time in my life to focus only on myself and not the other people and their PL or stake/reward ratio or whatever.

And my biggest respect and thanks goes to Mugs because without his videos I would be still in the dark