Aren't they just, I got out of Berdych way to early here but have a profit so can't complain, I'm now hoping he carrys on and pushes Nole's price up to 1.5'ish where its all in on the joker.Euler wrote:Two interesting matches, I'm struggling to keep everything under control.
Wimbledon 2013
The Later Quarter-Finals
Kubot v Janowicz
If you were generous you could call Lukasz Kubot a journeyman, if you were cynical you might think he has tanked an awful lot of matches, but he has always been a better player than his rankings or results suggested. Based on that assumption and based on the fact I think he must know a lot about JJ's strengths and weaknesses then I expect he will give it a real go.
He generates a very good groove in his matches and plays efficiently so if it does go the distance don't assume the older man will tire first. Either way they are both way better servers than returners so expect a few tb's and that means a slight lottery so more reason to think there's value to be found on Kubot @ 4.5.
My projected holds for the players are close to the ATP average with a slight preferance for JJ but Kubot breaks 11% more than JJ so for Janowicz to be sub 1.30 shout out lay, lay, lay.
Verdasco v Murray
Tabasco's big shot is his left FH but that goes into Murray's strength, his BH and that will be a great contest in itself to watch.
On the other wing I much prefer Murray's FH over Verdasco's BH although I hope Murray isn't too cautious with it and goes line rather than cross-court when the opportunity presents itself.
Having said that, if he doesn't get it deep or low, Verdasco will be in a great position to hit a crosscourt winner.
A big advantage for Murray is that his best shot, his line BH heads into Verdasco's weaker wing so expect to see Murray pull the trigger on that one as often as he can.
Murray's other major advantage is touch, he needs to use his superior touch to pull Verdasco off the baseline and bring him forward as Verdasco can be an error machine and that's a good, safe way of drawing them.
Verdasco will look to cash in on Murray's lack of aggression - the Scot is far too defensive at times and Verdasco's best chance is to play first-strike tennis.
He did that against Nadal at the Australian Open in that classic semi-final some years back and if he can do it again this is going 5 sets.
If you want a winner Murray has many things going for him here and will definetly trade bigger than 1.09, but for me the call is Tabasco as he will trade much shorter than his current price of 11 and there is scope for a good profit, well more than if you just layed Murray.
Kubot v Janowicz
If you were generous you could call Lukasz Kubot a journeyman, if you were cynical you might think he has tanked an awful lot of matches, but he has always been a better player than his rankings or results suggested. Based on that assumption and based on the fact I think he must know a lot about JJ's strengths and weaknesses then I expect he will give it a real go.
He generates a very good groove in his matches and plays efficiently so if it does go the distance don't assume the older man will tire first. Either way they are both way better servers than returners so expect a few tb's and that means a slight lottery so more reason to think there's value to be found on Kubot @ 4.5.
My projected holds for the players are close to the ATP average with a slight preferance for JJ but Kubot breaks 11% more than JJ so for Janowicz to be sub 1.30 shout out lay, lay, lay.
Verdasco v Murray
Tabasco's big shot is his left FH but that goes into Murray's strength, his BH and that will be a great contest in itself to watch.
On the other wing I much prefer Murray's FH over Verdasco's BH although I hope Murray isn't too cautious with it and goes line rather than cross-court when the opportunity presents itself.
Having said that, if he doesn't get it deep or low, Verdasco will be in a great position to hit a crosscourt winner.
A big advantage for Murray is that his best shot, his line BH heads into Verdasco's weaker wing so expect to see Murray pull the trigger on that one as often as he can.
Murray's other major advantage is touch, he needs to use his superior touch to pull Verdasco off the baseline and bring him forward as Verdasco can be an error machine and that's a good, safe way of drawing them.
Verdasco will look to cash in on Murray's lack of aggression - the Scot is far too defensive at times and Verdasco's best chance is to play first-strike tennis.
He did that against Nadal at the Australian Open in that classic semi-final some years back and if he can do it again this is going 5 sets.
If you want a winner Murray has many things going for him here and will definetly trade bigger than 1.09, but for me the call is Tabasco as he will trade much shorter than his current price of 11 and there is scope for a good profit, well more than if you just layed Murray.
Scrap that, Murray won the 3rd set and Verdasco's off court to sort his head out, he has a history of choking so maybe this is going 5. I'm in a good position right now whoever wins its just a case of playing it carefully and maximising profits.Redhead wrote:I did the same when Murray was at 2's, but am considering putting half of that back onto Verdasco, Murray's mindset could still be a bit fragile and Verdasco is playing very well.
