Lisicki odds at various score lines - E&OE
1.91 0-0
2.06 0-1
1.84 1-1
1.88 1-2
1.77 2-2
1.99 2-3
1.83 3-3
1.60 4-3
1.34 5-3
1.35 5-4
1.39 6-4 0-0
1.15 6-4 1-0
1.31 6-4 1-1
1.35 6-4 1-2
1.62 6-4 1-3
1.39 6-4 2-3
1.64 6-4 2-4
1.83 6-4 2-5
1.99 6-4 2-6 0-0
2.68 6-4 2-6 0-1
3.50 6-4 2-6 0-2
8.00 6-4 2-6 0-3
5.10 6-4 2-6 1-3
2.40 6-4 2-6 2-3
1.84 6-4 2-6 3-3
2.38 6-4 2-6 3-4
1.84 6-4 2-6 4-4
1.43 6-4 2-6 5-4
1.95 6-4 2-6 5-5
2.76 6-4 2-6 5-6
1.85 6-4 2-6 6-6
2.48 6-4 2-6 6-7
1.88 6-4 2-6 7-7
1.20 6-4 2-6 8-7
Wimbledon 2013
kroni wrote:Indeed was a great match, as a trader how do you predict such happenings ups and down, all I seem to do is build up big red figure, and the only way I managed to get in green was what seemed just like gambling in the last few games.
Good question Kroni, now i've been watching tennis since a child but only trading on it since February this year, i'm far from the perfect trader and make all the mistakes mentioned in other threads but I'm slowly ironing them out of my trading mindset.
When I look at a tennis match I have a spreadsheet where I work out all relevant service hold and break point percentages for each player, I then apply them to the relevant surface, adjust for court speed etc and come up with a projected service hold, which I believe is key to making a profit on tennis.
Armed with this if I believe the prices are the wrong way round I'll move in pre-match, I then settle down to watch the match and note who's got the early momentum, who's hitting deep, who looks mentally ready etc.
Tennis is a game of swings which is perfect for trading, of course you get it wrong sometimes its the nature of the beast but that's where discipline comes into it in cutting your losses early and then waiting for the next entry point based on your stats and eyes.
Hope this helps mate but like I said I only have a few months experience trading.
LeTiss 4pm wrote:Amazing stuff, my blood was seriously pumping towards the end, god knows how family members can sit through it
Ha-Ha, I know it was sweaty palms time in my house as well and I sort of chickened out and greened up a few quid short, but alls well that ends well, I hope Sabine goes and wins it now, both her and Bartoli are headcases and could quite easily self destruct in the final but i'm definitely backing Sabine and waiting until in-play at over 2.0
some good points there thanks, the times I've got into trouble I think is when if backed at shortish prices, for example I backed Lisicki at around 1.35 at start of the second set, to this point it was pretty much 1 way traffic but that's where it changed so I did the completely wrong thing, that second set was a nightmare for me with so many breaks of serve I was trying to reduce my losses but just made it worse.
I have also tried laying at short odds like you say BJGardner, as the downside is relatively small, like yesterday I lay Murray at 1.1 at the start, which was great but somehow I only managed a small amount of green on him as left most the profit on Verdasco, I had plenty of chance to get nice green on both especially when Verdasco was 2 sets up bet I left it, is that me just being greedy?
I have also tried laying at short odds like you say BJGardner, as the downside is relatively small, like yesterday I lay Murray at 1.1 at the start, which was great but somehow I only managed a small amount of green on him as left most the profit on Verdasco, I had plenty of chance to get nice green on both especially when Verdasco was 2 sets up bet I left it, is that me just being greedy?
It's an experience thing. When you watch a match the momentum seems obvious, until it changes. When trading you read the match, but mainly from getting in at suitable times. I try and pick low laying points for either player or vice versa.
I laid Murray, but traded out too early, I really thought he would come back into it at one set down. But I did go in again with Verdasco at 2.00. As Murray HAD to win the third set.
I laid Murray, but traded out too early, I really thought he would come back into it at one set down. But I did go in again with Verdasco at 2.00. As Murray HAD to win the third set.
I also backed Sabine at the end of the first set(although I'd backed her pre-match as well) at 1.39 I think, then after she demolished Rad in her first service game in the 2nd set, the circumstances(Grand Slam semi-final & Rad being an above average player) dictated a small back bet on Rad at 5.something, Rad then held, then broke so I got out of my 1.39 back of Lisicki at a small loss at break point Rad. With hindsight I feel I got out of Rad a little early @ 3.something in the second set but my plan was to back Sabine at the start of the 3rd set until she turned into an unforced error machine late in the 2nd set.
So I waited, wondering what to do with my open position on the unforced error queen, I was quite fortunate as she went 0-3 down and I thought I've been following you all tournament and you have that will to win, damm I backed you at that score against Williams and you won and Rad is no Sabrina, so I had a bit of the 8.0 and the 5.something (half stakes) and the match swung back. I then panicked and greened up at 7-7 in the last (even though Sabine had just broken Rad) for a nice profit as my emotions were with Sabine and I did'nt trust myself to press the get out button at break-point or had she been broken which could have been disaster.
All in all an excellent trading match, bring on the boys tomorrow.
So I waited, wondering what to do with my open position on the unforced error queen, I was quite fortunate as she went 0-3 down and I thought I've been following you all tournament and you have that will to win, damm I backed you at that score against Williams and you won and Rad is no Sabrina, so I had a bit of the 8.0 and the 5.something (half stakes) and the match swung back. I then panicked and greened up at 7-7 in the last (even though Sabine had just broken Rad) for a nice profit as my emotions were with Sabine and I did'nt trust myself to press the get out button at break-point or had she been broken which could have been disaster.
All in all an excellent trading match, bring on the boys tomorrow.
Morning all, no trading for me today as it's school sports day from 1-30 till 3-30 and I'm on a promise to my daughter. So good luck in the markets today whoever gets involved and I'll leave you with some thoughts.
Djokovic - Del Potro
Projected holds favour Nole as does the break point win %, Del Po has the edge in saving break points tho'. In my opinion once Nole has a handle on the Del Po serve he'll run him all round the court to try and aggravate his knee injury and even with the doctors magic pills I think the joker will take this in maybe 4 sets.
Murray - Janowicz
The price on Janowicz is currently too high and he will trade lower than 5.3, the projected holds are a lot closer than the other match and remember Murray had a tough 5 setter the other day, also the last time these two met Janowicz won. Now i'm not saying he'll win again today because like the other match once Murray starts to read the 140mph Janowicz serve, he'll pull him apart, but until he does theres scope for Janowicz to come in and Murray to drift.
Good Luck in the markets folks.
Djokovic - Del Potro
Projected holds favour Nole as does the break point win %, Del Po has the edge in saving break points tho'. In my opinion once Nole has a handle on the Del Po serve he'll run him all round the court to try and aggravate his knee injury and even with the doctors magic pills I think the joker will take this in maybe 4 sets.
Murray - Janowicz
The price on Janowicz is currently too high and he will trade lower than 5.3, the projected holds are a lot closer than the other match and remember Murray had a tough 5 setter the other day, also the last time these two met Janowicz won. Now i'm not saying he'll win again today because like the other match once Murray starts to read the 140mph Janowicz serve, he'll pull him apart, but until he does theres scope for Janowicz to come in and Murray to drift.
Good Luck in the markets folks.