Wimbledon 2013
I think Sabine could be a good lay 
It's her first GS final and 1.50 seems quite short, as Bartoli is playing well & looks composed
Lisicki drifted considerably before her match with Radwanska, so in laying 1.50 you might get a few tick movement before 2pm
It's her first GS final and 1.50 seems quite short, as Bartoli is playing well & looks composed
Lisicki drifted considerably before her match with Radwanska, so in laying 1.50 you might get a few tick movement before 2pm
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convoysur-2
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[quote="LeTiss 4pm"]I think Sabine could be a good lay .......
well i wouldent kick her outa the bed for farting ,,if thats what u mean..
well i wouldent kick her outa the bed for farting ,,if thats what u mean..
As a Scotsman myself, I really hope Murray can win Wimbledon at last. I've lost a lot of money betting on him to win it in the past. I'm sure he'll win it some time but I'm not sure if this is his year. Djokovic is playing extremely well, and if the Djok-Nadal, Djok-Del Potro matches teach us anything is that the best players just don't go away quietly in the big slams; they just keep fighting and fighting to the very end.Euler wrote:Nole is still a class above everybody though, it has to be said.
Not much to go on in the women's final today.
Four matches played together, 3-1 Sabine. 2-0 on clay, 1-1 on grass. Both times they have met before on grass was at Wimbledon. Last time Lisicki was favourite and won out 6-4 6-7 6-1.
Bartoli a bit older, but wiser, ranked higher and gives it her all. Lisicki is obviously firing on all cylinders at the moment.
From a trading perspective I found 356 matches where the favourite started at 1.50 and 50% of the time they drifted to 2.60. 76% of the time they come in to 1.10.
Four matches played together, 3-1 Sabine. 2-0 on clay, 1-1 on grass. Both times they have met before on grass was at Wimbledon. Last time Lisicki was favourite and won out 6-4 6-7 6-1.
Bartoli a bit older, but wiser, ranked higher and gives it her all. Lisicki is obviously firing on all cylinders at the moment.
From a trading perspective I found 356 matches where the favourite started at 1.50 and 50% of the time they drifted to 2.60. 76% of the time they come in to 1.10.
Morning Gents,
I've been pouring over the stats for todays final and here's some of my thoughts.
Betfair currently have Lisicki as a 1.51 favourite and that's short. Both have excellent grass court records, Lisicki's 26-9 (74%) and Bartoli's 50-17 (75%).
We can totally disregard the 3-1 head to head in favour of Lisicki with it being over 2 years old, there WTA finals records are both average with Lisicki 5-6 and Bartoli 8-12.
My projected holds are close with Bartoli actually in front. Lisicki is poor when she takes the first set (25-7 in the last year which is around 78%), so opposing her if she wins the first set looks a good play.
To me, Marion is the ultimate bully. She beats up on poor players, and those ranked outside the top 50, but struggles against quality competition. Lets take a look:
against top 10: 15-28 all time.
against top 20: 29-42 all time, 5-10 last year
against top 50: 24-26 in last 50
She must also realise that this is her last chance of winning a grand slam but I see at least three huge problems for Bartoli:
a) The Lisicki serve. Obvious, but don't understate the importance of this aspect. Lisicki has been delivering thunderbolts; with not only brute force but accuracy and angle. The amount of times she was able to dig herself out of 0-40, 15-40 and scattered break points against Williams and Radwanska - two of the best returners in the game - was incredible. Bartoli's compromised double-fisted reach, and short arm extension, it's unlikely that she'll be able to get any purchase on a large portion of the German's first ball. She'll need second balls, and will need to step in and play first-strike, problem is you're talking about a player in Lisicki who has fired 39 aces, landed 62% of first serves for a 68% success rate (vs 2xtop 50 players, 2x top 25 as well as #1 and #4) and has only been broken 14 times in 68 service games this tourny which is fantastic for WTA level especially considering 11 of those 14 were in marathon 3-set matches against the best player in the world Serena and the ever-consistent Radwanska.
b) Marion's own serve - risky technique and a lot can go wrong on an "off" day, or a windy day, and she's well known on tour for having an extremely flakey second serve in high-pressure games against big-hitting opponents. Lisicki should be able to punish that if the French lady struggles to land at least 65-70% of first balls, having said that she was a little timid in that department against Radwanska who was afforded the luxury of not serving one double fault across her 17 service games.
c) Hard for Bartoli to maintain any sort of dominance in general play (as I alluded to earlier she’s a bully), or get any rhythm. As evidenced in the Flipkens match, Marion loves the rhythm and being able to play at her own tempo. Despite her odd technique it's effective for her and if allowed to just smack balls from corner-to-corner she'll beat most.
But Lisicki has played smart the whole fortnight. Huge serves, big forehands (the inside-out working a treat) depth off both wings, drop shots, angles and is clearly moving as good as she ever has. She's having so much fun, and enjoyment brings success when you're not naturally good in the mental stakes. As soon as Lisicki's got Bartoli on the stretch, she'll be in control and isn't afraid of moving into the net on the grass surface, and should have far too many weapons and too much all-round game and movement for the Frenchwoman.
But....after saying all that if Sabine gets nervous and lets Marion dictate then we’ll be in for a 3-setter and possible trading epic.
All the best in the Markets this afternoon gents.
