Interesting blog post from Peter:
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2013/07 ... um=twitter
I wonder how many people would have stuck with the system from bet 664 to bet 868 and beyond. Not many, I would imagine.
The reason I'm currently in the world of work (and not a pro gambler) is that my system hit a long losing streak, and I threw in the towel. I had good reasons for doing so, but eventually the system recovered and has since shown a good profit over several thousand bets.
Jeff
What value looks like
People often wonder why a strategy fails just as they start using it, but often it's just the swings and roundabouts that you normally see.
So you start a strategy it fails, so you stop. You start a strategy it works, so you increase stakes and it fails. But all it is doing in that zig zag pattern you see.
If you measure a strategy of return on capital it often looks and feels much smoother. So as long as you have a big enough bank you can ride out any short term variability. But few people do.
So you start a strategy it fails, so you stop. You start a strategy it works, so you increase stakes and it fails. But all it is doing in that zig zag pattern you see.
If you measure a strategy of return on capital it often looks and feels much smoother. So as long as you have a big enough bank you can ride out any short term variability. But few people do.
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Wainwright
- Posts: 108
- Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2012 1:10 pm
I'd be tempted to call that blog post "What Does Confidence Look Like On A Bigger Scale" 
- presumably the willingness to stick with a strategy that's down 15k after 150 events comes from the level of work put into it before event #1 on that chart (ie stats/backtest/small stakes etc) ?
- presumably the willingness to stick with a strategy that's down 15k after 150 events comes from the level of work put into it before event #1 on that chart (ie stats/backtest/small stakes etc) ?
I have a few strategies that map like that - and I do (have done) exactly as suggested - jump ship on the downs and increase stakes on the up - and promptly lose !
The next stage I usually go through is reviewing the strategy and backfitting to the history. This new wonder strategy then loses while the original one recovers and profits
It looks like many variance graphs to me - stocks and other financials - even poker players' results I have seen look similar when they are playing to EV.
I keep trying to think of ways to identify the starts of the big downs and the ups - if you stopped trading on the two major downs in the blog sample but caught the "ups" you could put another 85k on the top line and have a holiday in the gaps
Maybe there is something in Technical Indicators and various trend lines that might help identify those points and achieve that extra bonus ?
The next stage I usually go through is reviewing the strategy and backfitting to the history. This new wonder strategy then loses while the original one recovers and profits
It looks like many variance graphs to me - stocks and other financials - even poker players' results I have seen look similar when they are playing to EV.
I keep trying to think of ways to identify the starts of the big downs and the ups - if you stopped trading on the two major downs in the blog sample but caught the "ups" you could put another 85k on the top line and have a holiday in the gaps
Maybe there is something in Technical Indicators and various trend lines that might help identify those points and achieve that extra bonus ?
