York 14:30 Group 2 23/08/13

[JollyGreen]

This is not the type of race I would get involved with but as I am feeling slightly better today I thought I would pass on my thoughts. I will keep this fairly brief....mind you I tend to waffle!!

The favourite Simenon is now 3.25 so I will close out having laid it at 2.88, I still think there is more room for a drift so there should be an opportunity. I could see this getting to around 3.5 BUT you would need to see Ahzeemah touching 5.0 for this to occur. You may find a bit of money for Times Up and this could touch around 5.4-5.6 from its current 6.0. These are basic triggers I would look for when trying to predict a move. Now obviously any move for another runner will create a similar trigger so look for support and this could force the favourite out.

So why have I already traded the drift? Well IMHO I think the favourite is way too short. I would price him at around 3.75 and look to get him in the book. I feel that his form suggests this 2m is too short for him to show his best. I also believe his price is low due to the last time out performance in the Ascot Gold Cup on 20/06/13 where he was a close second to the Queen's Estimate. There was a lot of media attention due to the owner so that tends to stick in a lot of minds! If you watch that race he had to battle and he doesn't really do anything but gallop. That was 2m4f and I think this drop back to 2m is unsuitable. Now obviously I can be wrong but at this price I am willing to take him on.

If you look at his form he has yet to win over 2m on the flat. He has won over hurdles at 2m but generally on slower ground where his stamina came into play. He has won over 2m4f and 2m6f on today's type of going but that was off a mark of 95 last year June '12. He races off 115 today having failed to win a race! That worries me as a backer so I have to think he is vulnerable!

He is now 6 years old so there is unlikely to be a sudden change to either his form or style of running. He is not likely to be improving much at this age so I have to question why he is suddenly going to enjoy a drop back to 2m racing off a career high mark? I am not saying he cannot win, you all know my by now. I am saying that at anything below 3.75 he is of no value. In fact I would only be interested in taking a small chance if he was 4.0 and that seems unlikely.

So how can you benefit from this? Well I think if you can lay him at anything around the 3.00-3.30 mark either pre-race or in-running you should find a chance to back him at a higher price. Why? Well this horse is not a speedster, he gallops and wears down his rivals. Over 2m4f that is fine and that was displayed in the Ascot race. However, this is over 4f less and on fast ground so he should be vulnerable to horses with more speed. He will need a near perfect race to be seen at his best. For example, he will need a strong gallop run at a true pace so he can then use his stamina to quicken (gallop stronger and longer) beyond his rivals. Now he could well do just that but you have to think in a small field of 7 runners there will be some shenanigans as horses try to settle and run the race that suits them. This horse needs cover and so this small field may also work against him as he may struggle to find it.

There are a lot of concerns and negatives so 3.25 is ridiculously low IMHO. I am happy with my early trade but will watch this race with interest.

Caucus pulled hard last time and I wonder if they may change tactics on this today by letting him bowl along in front. There a lot of hold up horses in this field so they'll all be looking for a lead to allow them to come with a late rattle. I would expect Azheemah and perhaps also Caucus to be kicking for home from around 3-4f and I wonder if Simenon will have the pace to go with them.

Good luck if you play, keep stakes sensible and enjoy. I would also welcome all views on this race.

JG

[gazuty]

Good stuff.

Glad to see that your health has improved to the extent you can provide excellent analysis again.

Hope you keep feeling better.

[steven1976]

Love your posts jolly, shame I always seem to be overseas with a rubbish connection to take advantage.

[gpickster]

Thanks for sharing that analysis fella.
I see the price has drifted to 3.45 pre-off
G

[JollyGreen]

Thanks for the replies and the kind words.

I must give praise to Johnny Murtagh who very nearly pulled it off with the near perfect ride. I mentioned that he would need a strong pace and cover but the small field was unlikely to offer that. So Murtagh was smart and he set the early pace and slowly built it up.

It also highlights to me just how stupid some of the other jockeys are as they allowed that to happen. I knew others would come to him and at about 3-4f from home he'd already touched 7.0

You could see that basically they just galloped and ground out a finish and he could never quite get there. That's why his price was wrong IMHO he did not have everything in his favour.

Aside from the actual race, I wasn't far off with my pre-race analysis, he went to 3.45 pre-race. I will try and ensure it is 3.5 next time

[steven1976]

When jolly talks the markets move!

[convoysur-2]

good to have you back jolly,
great post as always .
Marc