The final grand slam of the year is upon us from Monday and looking at the draw on both sides there's plenty of former champions wanting another bite at the U.S. Open Trophy, but who's got what it takes and crucially who's drawn who as we try and plot the route to the final.
ATP
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic's draw could be quite tricky and he's not in the best of form as he's not won a tournament since April, he could meet Dimitrov (No. 25) in the third round and then Del Potro (No. 6) in the quarter-finals, both of whom have beaten him in Masters events this year. However, the 2011 champion has a 23-4 hard court record this year and should work himself nicely into the tournament and be there or thereabouts late into the second week.
Juan Martin Del Potro
Has a possible left wrist injury to take into account as he admitted playing through pain in the recent Cincinnati tournament, the draw hasn't been kind to Del-Po either as he has to get through Hewitt, Haas then Djokovic to get to the semi's. He loves the hard court and has a 19-6 record this year on the surface, but as his draws tough and his wrist questionable i'm going to overlook my favourite player this time.
Andy Murray
Murray has a relatively straightforward draw until the 4th round but after that he'll need to step it up as a potential clash with Berdych awaits and then it keeps getting tougher with Djokovic and Nadal possibly in wait for the semi and final respectively. 22-4 on hard court this year he's looked a little out of sorts since his Wimbledon triumph but as the current title holder you can be sure Lendl's going to have him mentally ready for this but I have a feeling too many 5-setter's from the quarters onwards may be his undoing.
David Ferrer
The world number 4 has proven he can go deep in the tournament as he has reached the semi-finals at Flushing Meadows twice before, his hard court record this year sits at respectable 18-6 and the draw he been given looks plain sailing as the only upset I can see until the semi-finals is a potential quarter with Gasquet or Raonic. A back to lay looks on the cards.
Rafael Nadal
Rafa's on fire at the moment and has a lot of momentum coming into this Grand Slam with back to back Masters titles to his name, his hard court record for the year is 16-0 (that's right he's unbeaten) but he has a tricky first week to negotiate, Harrison is a potential banana skin in the first round, Pospisil in round 2 and, especially, Isner in round 4 are tough draws and potential 5 setters. After saying all that though if he can get into the second week the draws much kinder to him compared to his rivals and he could be the freshest man come the final.
Roger Federer
Federer is seeded seventh and is in rankings freefall due to a decline in his performance this year. He returns to Flushing Meadow in a bid to reclaim the US Open he dominated five years in a row between 2004-08. The first seed he could meet would be No. 26 Sam Querrey in the third round who an on form Federer would dispatch with ease. In the fourth round he would likely face Kei Nishikori or Bernard Tomic before a quarter-final with Rafa. It's more than possible if he beats Rafa he gets to the final, its a big if but his career could yet end with a Grand Slam win.
Verdict
I believe the winner will come from the bottom half of the draw as the top half will beat each other up en-route. The only play i'm making at the moment is a back to lay of David Ferrer @ 90.
U.S Open 2013
Cheers Kelpie. 
I've gone through the men's draw for a few hours now and it's to close to call a final two players, there's just to many imponderables, I believe that the winner of the potential Nadal - Federer quarter final will get to the final, but as far as the top half goes there's just to many possible 5 setters awaiting for the guys who get to the quarters and beyond and tournament fatigue plays a big part in Grand Slams.
WTA preview to follow
I've gone through the men's draw for a few hours now and it's to close to call a final two players, there's just to many imponderables, I believe that the winner of the potential Nadal - Federer quarter final will get to the final, but as far as the top half goes there's just to many possible 5 setters awaiting for the guys who get to the quarters and beyond and tournament fatigue plays a big part in Grand Slams.
WTA preview to follow
WTA - US Open Preview.
Let's take a look at the women’s draw for the US Open and try and isolate the semi-finalists.
Serena Williams
Serena in my opinion is the biggest threat to Serena anywhere before the final as she’s been handed a peach of a draw with many possible dangers(Hampton, Stephens, Kerber, Bouchard & Baby Rad) in her part of the draw taking each other out before the quarter-finals. Her 2013 hard court record stands at 30-4 and shows she still has the heart and desire to win, it’s just at 31 she has to take note of her body and not get caught up in unnecessary 3 setters, as she ran out of steam in the 3rd set of the final against an inspired Azarenka in Cincinnati recently.
Agnieszka Radwanska
The consistant Aga should come through the top section of her draw as all the dangers are in the bottom half (Jankovic, Puig, Cirstea, Makarova & Li) but her game has all the tools to beat anyone at any time, anywhere and she also boasts the best WTA yearly hard court record of 36-9 so her quarter-final opponent (one of the above) should hold no fears. Serena awaits in the semi.
Simona Halep
Has a fantastic draw in by far the easiest section of the woman’s tournament, she’s hitting form at the right time and looks to have only Wozniacki(who Simona comfortably beat last night in the semi-final at Yale) to beat in the quarter-finals en-route to the semi’s. At her current price of 100 she looks a cast iron back to lay. My only concern is possible fatigue as she’s playing a final tonight but a few 2 set victories early next week should set her up nicely.
Victoria Azarenka
It looks pretty straightforward for Vika until the quarter finals where she could meet Stosur or Kvitova, she’s coming into this Slam full of confidence after beating Serena (for the 2nd time this year) in the Toronto final and boasts a yearly hard court record of 25-3. I expect her to make the final if she plays like she did in Cincinnati but still fresh in my memory is her woeful performance at Carlsbad where she couldn’t find her serve at all.
Verdict
These are my potential semi-finalists for the WTA and the only play is again a back to lay, Simona Halep @ 100.
Let's take a look at the women’s draw for the US Open and try and isolate the semi-finalists.
Serena Williams
Serena in my opinion is the biggest threat to Serena anywhere before the final as she’s been handed a peach of a draw with many possible dangers(Hampton, Stephens, Kerber, Bouchard & Baby Rad) in her part of the draw taking each other out before the quarter-finals. Her 2013 hard court record stands at 30-4 and shows she still has the heart and desire to win, it’s just at 31 she has to take note of her body and not get caught up in unnecessary 3 setters, as she ran out of steam in the 3rd set of the final against an inspired Azarenka in Cincinnati recently.
Agnieszka Radwanska
The consistant Aga should come through the top section of her draw as all the dangers are in the bottom half (Jankovic, Puig, Cirstea, Makarova & Li) but her game has all the tools to beat anyone at any time, anywhere and she also boasts the best WTA yearly hard court record of 36-9 so her quarter-final opponent (one of the above) should hold no fears. Serena awaits in the semi.
Simona Halep
Has a fantastic draw in by far the easiest section of the woman’s tournament, she’s hitting form at the right time and looks to have only Wozniacki(who Simona comfortably beat last night in the semi-final at Yale) to beat in the quarter-finals en-route to the semi’s. At her current price of 100 she looks a cast iron back to lay. My only concern is possible fatigue as she’s playing a final tonight but a few 2 set victories early next week should set her up nicely.
Victoria Azarenka
It looks pretty straightforward for Vika until the quarter finals where she could meet Stosur or Kvitova, she’s coming into this Slam full of confidence after beating Serena (for the 2nd time this year) in the Toronto final and boasts a yearly hard court record of 25-3. I expect her to make the final if she plays like she did in Cincinnati but still fresh in my memory is her woeful performance at Carlsbad where she couldn’t find her serve at all.
Verdict
These are my potential semi-finalists for the WTA and the only play is again a back to lay, Simona Halep @ 100.
small fry wrote:Simona Halep is into 50 already
I'm happy with my position on Halep so far, I have a word of warning though, as Simona's never been past the 4th round of a Grand Slam you may want to hedge then depending on how many sets she's played in the current tournament, how well she's hitting the ball and crucially how her backs holding up as I noticed she was holding it a little towards the end of her annihilation of Kvitova on Saturday.
Stay Lucky.
First Round Matches
The two streamed ATP matches due to start at 1600gmt seemed to have thrown up some value and early opportunities to build the bank.
Evans v Nishikori
9.4 - 1.11 (current prices)
Nishikori is always a risky favourite, already this year he has suffered losses at 1.13, 1.28, 1.37 as well as retiring four times, this equals too much of a risk for me to back, so we lay with a view to trading out at break-point Evans. Both players have a low projected hold and swings a plenty could well occur.
Ramos v Tomic
4.0 - 1.31 (current prices)
This match all hangs on where Tomic's heads at, as he struggles to focus for prolonged periods and almost always allows his opponents to stay in matches with a lack of killer instinct, the fast court should suit him but Ramos is a tough opponent with not a lot of flaws in his game. I expect him to be competitive so if we take a price now or above 4.0 early in the match with a view to trading out at about 2.50ish.
Over to the early games in the WTA.
Cetkovska v Arvidsson
1.64 - 2.52 (current prices)
Cetkovska hasn't played a match on a hard court for over a year and her 18 month stats from 7 hard court matches are extremely unimpressive, they do not justify a price of 1.64, the trouble is Arvidsson has a poor service game and may not be able to win the match but she gives us a possible entry point as we can lay Cetkovska if Cetkovska break's Arvidsson in first 3 serve games of the 1st set.
Exit point: Its up to you really and how risk adverse you are i'm out at set for Cetkovska.
Matches start in 45 min's and hopefully I'll be popping in and out of this thread all evening.
Good luck in the markets people and stay lucky.
The two streamed ATP matches due to start at 1600gmt seemed to have thrown up some value and early opportunities to build the bank.
Evans v Nishikori
9.4 - 1.11 (current prices)
Nishikori is always a risky favourite, already this year he has suffered losses at 1.13, 1.28, 1.37 as well as retiring four times, this equals too much of a risk for me to back, so we lay with a view to trading out at break-point Evans. Both players have a low projected hold and swings a plenty could well occur.
Ramos v Tomic
4.0 - 1.31 (current prices)
This match all hangs on where Tomic's heads at, as he struggles to focus for prolonged periods and almost always allows his opponents to stay in matches with a lack of killer instinct, the fast court should suit him but Ramos is a tough opponent with not a lot of flaws in his game. I expect him to be competitive so if we take a price now or above 4.0 early in the match with a view to trading out at about 2.50ish.
Over to the early games in the WTA.
Cetkovska v Arvidsson
1.64 - 2.52 (current prices)
Cetkovska hasn't played a match on a hard court for over a year and her 18 month stats from 7 hard court matches are extremely unimpressive, they do not justify a price of 1.64, the trouble is Arvidsson has a poor service game and may not be able to win the match but she gives us a possible entry point as we can lay Cetkovska if Cetkovska break's Arvidsson in first 3 serve games of the 1st set.
Exit point: Its up to you really and how risk adverse you are i'm out at set for Cetkovska.
Matches start in 45 min's and hopefully I'll be popping in and out of this thread all evening.
Good luck in the markets people and stay lucky.
Well after an excellent day yesterday in terms of tennis and profit today's ATP card looks a little uninspiring to say the least.
One match to have caught my eye is Mayer v Monaco scheduled to start at 2030gmt, in my opinion the market is the wrong way round and Mayer should be favourite, both men have low projected service holds with Mayer's slightly better than his opponents. Monaco is deadly when a break down, he's in the top 5 in the world at recovering a break but when matches go the distance he seems to down tools and has a terrible deciding set record where as Mayer is extremely clutch in these situations.
This all points to selectively laying the server and if it goes the distance and we've got a profit, lumping it all on Mayer in the 4th or 5th set.
One match to have caught my eye is Mayer v Monaco scheduled to start at 2030gmt, in my opinion the market is the wrong way round and Mayer should be favourite, both men have low projected service holds with Mayer's slightly better than his opponents. Monaco is deadly when a break down, he's in the top 5 in the world at recovering a break but when matches go the distance he seems to down tools and has a terrible deciding set record where as Mayer is extremely clutch in these situations.
This all points to selectively laying the server and if it goes the distance and we've got a profit, lumping it all on Mayer in the 4th or 5th set.
Cheers lads, its nice when things go well. I'm struggling with a few matches at the moment, currently 1-4 wining/losing trades with 4 open positions to dig me out my hole.
Later on i'm thinking of laying Lu in his match with Gimeno-Traver as he's just to short.
Donna Vekic is a top class prospect and if she gets broken early or trades over 1.7'ish in the first set i'm all over it.
The match I mentioned earlier with these other two should give us plenty to sink our teeth into this evening.
Stay Lucky
Later on i'm thinking of laying Lu in his match with Gimeno-Traver as he's just to short.
Donna Vekic is a top class prospect and if she gets broken early or trades over 1.7'ish in the first set i'm all over it.
The match I mentioned earlier with these other two should give us plenty to sink our teeth into this evening.
Stay Lucky
A bit up and down yesterday, I struggled with the early matches and got stung by Klizan's lack of effort and Petzschner's retirement but at least Vekic, Mayer and Kamke pulled me into small profit so I shouldn't be to harsh on myself as a profits a profit.
34 matches today to go through and looking at the WTA 2nd round there looks to be a lot of solid favourites, so lets try and unearth some value.
A resurgent Venus Williams looks good value at around 1.40 to take care of Jie Zheng as the Chinese player has a very low projected hold and will be broken in my opinion more than she holds.
Sabine Lisicki starts at 1.14 which is way to short for someone of her mindset, she often loses concentration during matches and when priced at 1.20 or below has lost at least one set in 7 of the last 11 matches she's played.
Sloane Stephens had better be ready for another battle, after surviving a third-set tiebreaker in the first round she’ll be tested again by baby Radwanska who has already beaten her in straight sets at Indian Wells earlier this year. Projected holds are close but Urszula breaks slightly more on this surface and if Sloane's not in the zone I can see baby Rad giving her plenty of trouble, any price above 2.70 is worth taking.
The match between Makarova and Mattek-Sands is a lot closer than the prices suggest as there stats make the girls very evenly matched and with both girls projected holds very high don't expect many swings in this one.
The ATP tournament is strangely still in the first round after three days and Andy Murray is not due on court until the last match this evening, this scheduling means Murray will have to play his seven matches in 13 days, which will require him to play back-to-back matches without a day of rest at some point if he makes the final, something to definitely bare in mind for later in the tournament.
Looking over the mens matches the first one to catch my eye was the battle of the big servers Daniel Brands v Kevin Anderson as Anderson is way short at 1.32, service holds are very high as you'd expect and they both have similar win-loss records on hard court, Brands had a good run in this tournament last year and can push Anderson close here.
Victor Hanescu versus Leonardo Mayeris interesting as Mayer has moved 20 plus ticks pre-match, I got caught on the wrong side of a pre match drift yesterday(Klizan) and am paying more attention today. A quick check through there stats suggests there both poor on a hard court, Hanescu has a very poor projected hold today and has only won 2-8 hard court matches in the last year, both of those were by retirement. Mayer's won 4-10 but more importantly he holds and breaks more than Hanescu and he seems to be more clutch in pressure situations, his current price of 1.76 is still worth taking or you could wait for a little higher in-play.
Best of luck lads
34 matches today to go through and looking at the WTA 2nd round there looks to be a lot of solid favourites, so lets try and unearth some value.
A resurgent Venus Williams looks good value at around 1.40 to take care of Jie Zheng as the Chinese player has a very low projected hold and will be broken in my opinion more than she holds.
Sabine Lisicki starts at 1.14 which is way to short for someone of her mindset, she often loses concentration during matches and when priced at 1.20 or below has lost at least one set in 7 of the last 11 matches she's played.
Sloane Stephens had better be ready for another battle, after surviving a third-set tiebreaker in the first round she’ll be tested again by baby Radwanska who has already beaten her in straight sets at Indian Wells earlier this year. Projected holds are close but Urszula breaks slightly more on this surface and if Sloane's not in the zone I can see baby Rad giving her plenty of trouble, any price above 2.70 is worth taking.
The match between Makarova and Mattek-Sands is a lot closer than the prices suggest as there stats make the girls very evenly matched and with both girls projected holds very high don't expect many swings in this one.
The ATP tournament is strangely still in the first round after three days and Andy Murray is not due on court until the last match this evening, this scheduling means Murray will have to play his seven matches in 13 days, which will require him to play back-to-back matches without a day of rest at some point if he makes the final, something to definitely bare in mind for later in the tournament.
Looking over the mens matches the first one to catch my eye was the battle of the big servers Daniel Brands v Kevin Anderson as Anderson is way short at 1.32, service holds are very high as you'd expect and they both have similar win-loss records on hard court, Brands had a good run in this tournament last year and can push Anderson close here.
Victor Hanescu versus Leonardo Mayeris interesting as Mayer has moved 20 plus ticks pre-match, I got caught on the wrong side of a pre match drift yesterday(Klizan) and am paying more attention today. A quick check through there stats suggests there both poor on a hard court, Hanescu has a very poor projected hold today and has only won 2-8 hard court matches in the last year, both of those were by retirement. Mayer's won 4-10 but more importantly he holds and breaks more than Hanescu and he seems to be more clutch in pressure situations, his current price of 1.76 is still worth taking or you could wait for a little higher in-play.
Best of luck lads
