Wawrinka doing the business after an early break, if you know your players you'll know he always starts slow.
U.S Open 2013
What a match V Willaims v Zheng was, I got caught on the wrong side of it but hey thats what you get for getting emotionally involved in a last set tiebreak. What A Match!!!
Wawrinka doing the business after an early break, if you know your players you'll know he always starts slow.
Wawrinka doing the business after an early break, if you know your players you'll know he always starts slow.
Finally up and about after last nights action and another profit was made thanks to Mayer, Wawrinka, Karlovic & Gojowczk.
A note to self (see above post), that's the second time in a grand slam I've been stung after getting emotionally involved in a match, I need to remember I'm working and speculating and I can't afford to get caught up in the emotions of the match, I need to stay impartial.
I'll try and get some previews up later as there should be some good opportunities today but I'm out until just after the first matches start at 1600gmt so I'll leave you with this little gem, Sela, Haider-Maurer and Tomic are ranked outside the top 50 and played 5 set matches in the previous round. Players outside the top 50 who play a 5 set match in the previous round have a very poor return on investment in Grand Slams. Something to bare in mind.
Have a good day.
A note to self (see above post), that's the second time in a grand slam I've been stung after getting emotionally involved in a match, I need to remember I'm working and speculating and I can't afford to get caught up in the emotions of the match, I need to stay impartial.
I'll try and get some previews up later as there should be some good opportunities today but I'm out until just after the first matches start at 1600gmt so I'll leave you with this little gem, Sela, Haider-Maurer and Tomic are ranked outside the top 50 and played 5 set matches in the previous round. Players outside the top 50 who play a 5 set match in the previous round have a very poor return on investment in Grand Slams. Something to bare in mind.
Have a good day.
stevequal wrote:Is now the time to lay Dan Evans at 1.5 having taken the third. It always seems wrong to bet against a fellow country man, particularly an emerging English tennis player.
I hope you did'nt lay Evans, he was always going to win, see my above post about 5 set matches.
Here's a couple of pointers for later Steve.
Giorgi is way to low @ 1.85 versus Hsieh, she has a low projected hold, doesn't break as often as Hsieh and her yearly hard court record is not as good.
A reduced lay of Kohlschreiber against Roger Vasselin if he wins the first set would'nt be a bad play as there projected holds and stats are very close, in fact Roger Vasselin has the better break stats.
Not one to trust so keep stakes small but Davydenko is currently around 4's and thats a good price, if you fancy a lower liablilty then lay Dodig if he wins the first set.
Hope this helps mate.
Giorgi is way to low @ 1.85 versus Hsieh, she has a low projected hold, doesn't break as often as Hsieh and her yearly hard court record is not as good.
A reduced lay of Kohlschreiber against Roger Vasselin if he wins the first set would'nt be a bad play as there projected holds and stats are very close, in fact Roger Vasselin has the better break stats.
Not one to trust so keep stakes small but Davydenko is currently around 4's and thats a good price, if you fancy a lower liablilty then lay Dodig if he wins the first set.
Hope this helps mate.
Interesting stuff Peter, I don't think Murray will win this year as there's to many big guns in the top half of the draw and Murray's schedule is crazy I mentioned it in yesterdays post, due to him playing his 1st round match on the 3rd day he'll have to play 7 matches in 13 days, which means back-to-back matches without a day of rest at some point if he makes the final.Euler wrote:Good interview on SS1
Yep I agree with that. I Don't trade tennis but I've enjoyed reading this thread and seeing how Redhead profiles the matches.small fry wrote:Really enjoying this thread, not trading just watching the markets but your calling it right near ever time.
Good job Redhead
Redhead, if you don't mind me asking, how long have you been trading and do you concentrate mainly on the tennis markets?
Regards
Peter
PS we have Jolly on the horses, redhead on the Tennis, we just need someone on the footie now!
Morning lads,
Thanks for the kind words, things are working out nicely this week so far I must agree, though I did hit a loss yesterday for the first time in four days so i'm not a trading terminator just yet
.
To answer Peter I've only been trading since February this year and have ironed out the creases in my trading mindset relativity quickly by playing with real money(there's nothing like losing to hammer something home) and diving head first into all sorts of off the wall statistical research regarding tennis(a sport I've always loved) which in my opinion has an official statistical problem (imagine if they had hawkeye on every court collecting data
).
I also trade on the NBA as I love basketball and I find that it has swings similar to tennis I suppose due to its similar fast scoring nature, for instance you'll often find teams who are down 10+ points after the first quarter trade at silly prices considering there's 3/4 of the game left, in the playoffs the Chicago Bulls were playing the Brooklyn Nets. Down by about 14 points with roughly 4 minutes left the Bulls were matched at 1000, they won.
So there are my chosen sports and watching them is a pleasure(which is always important when your trading), its finding the edges thats the hard part.
Thanks for the kind words, things are working out nicely this week so far I must agree, though I did hit a loss yesterday for the first time in four days so i'm not a trading terminator just yet
.To answer Peter I've only been trading since February this year and have ironed out the creases in my trading mindset relativity quickly by playing with real money(there's nothing like losing to hammer something home) and diving head first into all sorts of off the wall statistical research regarding tennis(a sport I've always loved) which in my opinion has an official statistical problem (imagine if they had hawkeye on every court collecting data
). I also trade on the NBA as I love basketball and I find that it has swings similar to tennis I suppose due to its similar fast scoring nature, for instance you'll often find teams who are down 10+ points after the first quarter trade at silly prices considering there's 3/4 of the game left, in the playoffs the Chicago Bulls were playing the Brooklyn Nets. Down by about 14 points with roughly 4 minutes left the Bulls were matched at 1000, they won.
So there are my chosen sports and watching them is a pleasure(which is always important when your trading), its finding the edges thats the hard part.
Just a quick heads up for those interested the three players I mentioned yesterday ranked outside the top 50 that won a five set match in the previous round only won one set between them. Today we're gifted with Bogomolov, Sousa, Devvarman and Karlovic.
Thought I'd post up some of my trading notes I make pre-game there not really previews just garbled notes I deem relevant, these and my spreadsheets form the base of my operation.
WTA
Robson V Li
Li will be cautious of Robson that’s for sure as Laura always step’s up her game against the Top 10 and beat Li here last year so she could have the Chinese star in all sorts of trouble. On the other hand I am worried by the wrist injury she's just come back from, it still clearly affects her backhand. Li should take this as she usually gobbles up big serving left handers and i’m sure she’ll trade higher in play.
Hampton V Stephens
Both girls are exceptional talents and this should be a really good game, they both have very close win % on hard court this year (62%-64%), there service and break stats are also very close , projected holds are high with Hampton just having the edge there. Sloane is just too short though and I’ll be laying.
Kanepi V Kerber
I can see Kanepi's power being too much for Kerber here, Kerbers serve has looked very suspect this week (she gave Bouchard 14 break-points chances in the last round) and it needs to improve against Kanepi or she’s going home. Projected holds are close, both girls are clutch in pressure situations.
Radwanska V Pavlyuchenkova
Pavlyuchenkova can give the top players a game thats for sure but her projected hold is low and the best we can hope for here is a higher price(over 1.5) on the witch if Pav puts her foot down early in the first.
Makarova V Lisicki
Ekaterina Makarova is worth a second look at 2.40+ here. Lisicki has an unimpressive 9-9 record on hard court this year but has looked good this week with her serve and I think the market has overrated her based in her Wimbledon exploits. Makarova has held and broken more in the yearly stats and looks to be an improved player mentally as well. Projected holds are above average with Kerber coming out on top. Possible false favourite in Lisicki.
Suarez Navarro V Zheng
Projected holds are very low for both players here and this could be a swing fest, a word of warning though Navarro should come with a trading wealth warning as she's so unpredictable and instead of rushing straight in and laying her serve wait until she's a break ahead.
WTA
Robson V Li
Li will be cautious of Robson that’s for sure as Laura always step’s up her game against the Top 10 and beat Li here last year so she could have the Chinese star in all sorts of trouble. On the other hand I am worried by the wrist injury she's just come back from, it still clearly affects her backhand. Li should take this as she usually gobbles up big serving left handers and i’m sure she’ll trade higher in play.
Hampton V Stephens
Both girls are exceptional talents and this should be a really good game, they both have very close win % on hard court this year (62%-64%), there service and break stats are also very close , projected holds are high with Hampton just having the edge there. Sloane is just too short though and I’ll be laying.
Kanepi V Kerber
I can see Kanepi's power being too much for Kerber here, Kerbers serve has looked very suspect this week (she gave Bouchard 14 break-points chances in the last round) and it needs to improve against Kanepi or she’s going home. Projected holds are close, both girls are clutch in pressure situations.
Radwanska V Pavlyuchenkova
Pavlyuchenkova can give the top players a game thats for sure but her projected hold is low and the best we can hope for here is a higher price(over 1.5) on the witch if Pav puts her foot down early in the first.
Makarova V Lisicki
Ekaterina Makarova is worth a second look at 2.40+ here. Lisicki has an unimpressive 9-9 record on hard court this year but has looked good this week with her serve and I think the market has overrated her based in her Wimbledon exploits. Makarova has held and broken more in the yearly stats and looks to be an improved player mentally as well. Projected holds are above average with Kerber coming out on top. Possible false favourite in Lisicki.
Suarez Navarro V Zheng
Projected holds are very low for both players here and this could be a swing fest, a word of warning though Navarro should come with a trading wealth warning as she's so unpredictable and instead of rushing straight in and laying her serve wait until she's a break ahead.