U.S Open 2013

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Euler
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Y, just started looking at the other matches after Djokovic won the first on a TB.

Had my eye on your match. Why has Sabine done so badly in the first?
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Redhead
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Euler wrote:Y, just started looking at the other matches after Djokovic won the first on a TB.

Had my eye on your match. Why has Sabine done so badly in the first?


A combination of Sabine missing shots and Makarova playing a blinder early doors. Sabine looks to have her eye in now, the next games crucial.
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Redhead
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Makarova takes the set, can't see Sabine coming back to be honest, she may put up a fight but Makarova wins in two i'd imagine.

I've just layed Bogomolov Jr in the tiebreak considering he played a 5 setter last round, lets see how that one pans out.
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Shamrock
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Great thread Redhead. In Australia so I get to read it a day late, but your on the money so keep it going.
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Redhead
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Just got back in, made the coffee and settled down at the controls, Simone looked good didn't she?

Looking at what possible opportunities we have with the live matches now, would I back Ivanovic if she lost the first set, possibly over 1.9 as she carries a risk of self implosion a bit like Lisicki, other than that it looks like Petra's hating the conditions against Riske and Pennetta got her match sown up which is a bit annoying as I was in to late to get her over 2.5.

No previews I'm afraid as I've been busy all-day, looking over my spreadsheet tho' I see my old mate Dan Evans is looking good to trade lower in play against Robredo, get in and out early tho' as Tommy is clutch later on in matches, who remembers his three epic 5 setters at the French Open this year? Both there projected holds are low so there should be swings.

Other players worth a second look are Lopez(over 3.20) & Kohlschreiber @ 3.70.

Hopefully i'll pop in and out of this thread all evening.

All the best in the markets people.
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Redhead
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Set to Ivanovic then, I must admit though I lost my bottle and got out at a small loss when McHale was serving for the match. There's a lesson to be learnt from that I'm sure, still there's a 3rd set now to try and turn red to green we'll have to see if any oppotunities crop up, McHale has a low projected hold so laying her serve is an option. Lets work those ladders!!!
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kelpie
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Forget the trading for a moment

Jeeps, that Azarenka has wedged a couple of pizzas in her tummy bundle.
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Redhead
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A couple of breaks already in the Robredo v Evans match, a long way to go yet with Evans just holding off a break point to make it 2-2. Both players are looking to give 100% here as it's in their nature. Robredo's class against Evans determination and growing confidence, lets see what happens.
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Redhead
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I'm impressed with Evans attitude, his first serve is letting him down a bit but if that picks up to about 65-70% I can definitely see him winning a set, maybe two. Whether he has the guile to beat Robredo though is another matter.
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Redhead
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Evans blew that tie-break he got to tight and skied two forehands, he seems to have the mental fortitude to mount a comeback so i've taken some of his bigger price, Tommy's off for a toilet break, gamesmanship if you ask me giving Dan time to think about throwing away the first set.
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kelpie
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Williams starting at 1.1 versus Stephens. Good chance for a 20 tick lay, I'd say. Sloane should nudge Her Fattiness out to 1.3 at least once.
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Redhead
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Williams V Stephens
Sloane has got better as the week has gone on, brushing aside her last two opponents after struggling in the 1st round. Serena has not yet been tested in three matches this week and you could say that this is her first workout. Their off-court baggage lends even more intrigue to the match up but Serena has only been beaten in back to back slam meetings by 3 people in her career and Stephens is not going to become the 4th though we can watch with interest as Sloane will push her and we may be able to get a bigger price on Serena.

Suarez Navarro V Kerber

Suarez Navarro is my nemesis; she always comes into hard court matches with low projected service holds yet wins, Kerber loves playing here and is having her best tournament run of the year, my stats say lay Suarez Navarro but her good record versus left handers and myself being sore from the wounds to my wallet inflicted by Carla dictates a wide swerve.

Radwanska V Makarova
Despite the fact that she hasn't dropped a set, I haven't been too impressed with Aga’s form so far this week and the US Open is the only grand slam that Radwanksa has failed to reach at least the quarters but surely she can't lose against someone to whom she's never conceded a set, can she?
Every now and then Makarova goes on a good run and her game can trouble anyone on its day as wins over Serena and Azarenka have proven but the difference in mental strength between these two players is vast and Aga should take this, her projected hold is higher and she breaks more than Makarova too.

Jankovic V Li
Through the first three rounds, no player bar Simona Halep has been more impressive than Li, the way she dispatched Laura Robson with efficient ease was classy and she’s yet to drop a set. Jankovic, who has a low projected service hold (Li’s is average) is no mug though and this will go to three sets as she’s extremely good at manufacturing break points and Li (though not this week yet) usually implodes at least once during matches. I’m not calling a winner on this as it’s a coin flip but I’m predicting swings.


Over to the men’s matches and a brief run through; the value appears to be with Smyczek at over 2.60 but tread carefully as both men have played 5 setters in the last round, in fact Granollers has played two in two. Marcel is adept at long matches and has a 65% win percentage in matches 3 set’s or over, but the call has to be Smyczek to trade lower and Tim must fancy his chances with the crowd behind him as last American man standing. Projected holds are close as are break point chance %.
Over to Haas V Youzhny, Tommy's serve is such a big weapon the 12th seed hasn’t lost a set yet, he is much more mentally strong than Youzhny who quite regularly falls apart when something goes wrong and if we can get over 1.7 I’m all over it. Haas has the better hold percentage and breaks more than Youzhny as well.
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Redhead
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Stan's to short here @1.35 V Baghdatis, a lay to back is a good play. 8-)
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Redhead
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Wawrinka broken, bingo :mrgreen:
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kelpie
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Had the same thought. Wawrinka at 1.35 is not justified yet. 15 tick lay is safe.
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