You may recall I did a post about the foibles of Beverley and some of them may come into play in this race.
I can't have York Glory at 6.0 that's a stupid price in such a competitive event. It's even more ludicrous when you consider there are 15 runners on such a tricky course. The draw is critical here with a low number being best and a high one being a real handicap. I am not saying something drawn high cannot win but it will take a supreme effort or a strange occurrence to permit it.
So on York Glory I would not be surprised to see it drift closer to 7.0 and even though you may get a crazy move to ~ 5.50-5.60 I would be looking to lay at that price as I feel it will drift back out.
Normally I would suggest a Lay to Back strategy but the high starting price means it could be a sweat if York Glory breaks well and takes up a good position close to the lead. He is drawn well in stall 4 but this may cause him a few problems. He is not the type of horse to lead and in my humble opinion I don't think this turning track will suit. This is just my opinion having looked at his form and running style. All his wins have come on a straight track where he can adopt his preferred hold up style and then come with a late run.
In my post about Beverley I mentioned how front runners have a distinct advantage and it takes a good horse to come from behind. York Glory is a decent horse but he's not head and shoulders above his rivals so it will take a supreme effort for him to sit behind and then come with a late run. I am not saying he can't I am just saying at the price he is not value.
There will be plenty of early pace in this race as grabbing the rail and the front is crucial. There are speed horses in the shape of Borderlescott, Cheviot, Doc Hay, Tangerine Trees, Inxile, Ballista and Masamah to name a few! If a horse is in behind his momentum may be checked and to get going again requires energy which is will not be in abundance in the closing stages.
So with so much to go wrong in a sprint field of 15 horses would you want to take 6.0 about a horse? I know I wouldn't!
There will be a few ways to play this. You could lay York Glory and preset a back at a price of your choice. If he gets a clear run you may suffer but if he is baulked, misses the break etc then his price will drift out. This could be a tight and potentially messy finish so we could look at a lay the field strategy setting our lay orders at 1.71 for example. You can decide what price you want to lay at but remember this is on C4 so faster pictures are available to the masses and this can effect the minimum in running price.
You could actually Dutch the low drawn horses say from 1-5 and if they get a good start they will have a distinct advantage and their price should contract. York Glory is in 4 but he likes to be held up so perhaps exclude him from your Dutch list.
It will be interesting to see how this race pans out, I think we may get at least two runners below 2.0 in running and perhaps three. I am going to lay York Glory because I know long term I will make money opposing this type of horse at such a low price.
Good luck if you play, sensible stakes and enjoy it!
JG
2:30 Beverley - possible chances in this puzzle
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convoysur-2
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great post jolly ,
thanks for the heads up.
tell me please where is to get info on front runners -hold up horses,i hear on the commentry all the time this one will make the pace front running,this one will come late etc..where is the easiest place to find this info ?thanks
Marc
thanks for the heads up.
tell me please where is to get info on front runners -hold up horses,i hear on the commentry all the time this one will make the pace front running,this one will come late etc..where is the easiest place to find this info ?thanks
Marc
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JollyGreen
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I know a lot of them from memory where I have watched them race before. The easiest way is to look at their past results as horses tend to run in certain ways. The in running comment from the Racing Post will usually say something like "Led" or "prominent" or "held up in rear" etc. Once you have seen this a few times for a horse you will know their usual style.
You can use Timeform or another ratings service which also details their running style but sadly that costs money!
You can use Timeform or another ratings service which also details their running style but sadly that costs money!
It's interesting that it steamed in to just below 4.0 pre-off (and went odds-on in play).
Do you think it may have improved in training on its previous ability, and that the move was due to insider money? I'm not suggesting anything untoward may have happened, btw.
Jeff
Do you think it may have improved in training on its previous ability, and that the move was due to insider money? I'm not suggesting anything untoward may have happened, btw.
Jeff
JollyGreen wrote: I can't have York Glory at 6.0 that's a stupid price in such a competitive event.
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JollyGreen
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JeffFerru123 wrote:It's interesting that it steamed in to just below 4.0 pre-off (and went odds-on in play).
Do you think it may have improved in training on its previous ability, and that the move was due to insider money? I'm not suggesting anything untoward may have happened, btw.
JeffJollyGreen wrote: I can't have York Glory at 6.0 that's a stupid price in such a competitive event.
This is a 5 year old horse rated 109 so he will not have improved since his last run. He is what he is, a solid horse with a loony price!
That wasn't insider money that was mug money from lemmings who will now say he was unlucky a la Graham "Meerkat" Cunningham on C4. I predicted how he would need to be lucky BEFORE the race not after the race like the idiots on C4!
JG
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JollyGreen
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Nice one mate...please send commission cheques to...PeterLe wrote:That will pay for the takeaway and cinema tomorrow dave!
3 under 3...
Edit : 3 under 1.55 !
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JollyGreen
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I really do have to at times!
I've had a few messages and a friend who is in a local pub also got in touch. Apparently I was lucky with this result
As Gary Player said "the more I practice the luckier I get!"
My mate in the pub was showing my post to some of the regulars who like a bet. They all said I was lucky because York Glory nearly won. Need I remind them he didn't win and I did point out he would need a lot of things to go in his favour for him to win.
I am not sure what some people want?
I said..
1. You could lay York Glory with a view to backing in running because if he misses the break....Well his price went to 15.0 and they had barely gone 1 furlong!
2. You could lay the field at 1.71.....THREE runners went below that mark with the actual prices being 1.01 1.16 and 1.19!!
3. You could Dutch the low drawn horses 1-5 (perhaps exclude York Glory) The winner came from stall 2 the 3rd came from stall 1 and York Glory who may have been left out came from stall 4
Admittedly I did say the price would reverse from 5.50 and that was wrong but I cannot account for lemmings wanting to follow others over the cliff.
So with any of those strategies you could not fail to make a profit.
To quote a phrase "You can lead a horse to water..."
at times!I've had a few messages and a friend who is in a local pub also got in touch. Apparently I was lucky with this result
As Gary Player said "the more I practice the luckier I get!"My mate in the pub was showing my post to some of the regulars who like a bet. They all said I was lucky because York Glory nearly won. Need I remind them he didn't win and I did point out he would need a lot of things to go in his favour for him to win.
I am not sure what some people want?
I said..
1. You could lay York Glory with a view to backing in running because if he misses the break....Well his price went to 15.0 and they had barely gone 1 furlong!
2. You could lay the field at 1.71.....THREE runners went below that mark with the actual prices being 1.01 1.16 and 1.19!!
3. You could Dutch the low drawn horses 1-5 (perhaps exclude York Glory) The winner came from stall 2 the 3rd came from stall 1 and York Glory who may have been left out came from stall 4
Admittedly I did say the price would reverse from 5.50 and that was wrong but I cannot account for lemmings wanting to follow others over the cliff.
So with any of those strategies you could not fail to make a profit.
To quote a phrase "You can lead a horse to water..."
I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's curious that his OR figure has risen since April: http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_ ... horse_formJollyGreen wrote: This is a 5 year old horse rated 109 so he will not have improved since his last run.
Why can he not have improved still further since his last race three weeks ago? That's not a rhetorical question; I'm just curious.
Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's interesting to note that the RP observed that 'YORK GLORY is also well drawn in stall 4'.JollyGreen wrote:I am not saying something drawn high cannot win but it will take a supreme effort or a strange occurrence to permit it.
Given the negatives that you highlight, it's also curious that York Glory had the highest RPR. It would be interesting to know if that figure is purely derived from the horse's stats, or if someone's opinion is also factored in.
Jeff
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JollyGreen
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Jeff
The draw in a sprint is only an advantage if the horse is going to fly from the stalls, grab the rail and lead the race, especially at Beverley! I said York Glory was drawn in 4 and mentioned him when dutching stalls 1-5 and added you may wish to exclude him as he would not front run. He was tardy out of the stalls and he went 15.0 after the first furlong.
He may well have been top rated according RPR (I just checked retrospectively) but many things need to be considered when looking for the best horse. The draw could cost him a few pounds, the turning course, the uphill finish etc etc. So in my view there were 3-4 pounds between 7-8 horses. If you look at OR you will see there was not much in it. So then you must factor in age, running style, draw, course, pace, etc.
On a wide course with a straight run he would've won but at Beverley he was slow away, a danger I highlighted, he would be behind horses etc. You then need EVERYTHING to fall your way as one problem levels the playing field.
These are sprinters, they are beyond 3 years old, they can improve but NOT in the three weeks since their last run. If they could improve and it is a big IF then it may be 1lb or a 2lb at most and I would be very sceptical about that happening. So since April his finishing rating has been 94 103 100 110 114 83 103 so he peaked with an RPR of 114 22/06/13 and this is adjusted for weight carried. That's similar to the ratings I use (don't ask) and it shows he is not going to have much more improvement in him.
You will only find massive improvement if the horse has suffered a minor injury and is now 100%. Perhaps it was a hard horse to train, perhaps it had a slight breathing issue. When these problems are sorted you may get an improvement in 3 weeks. This horse runs like clockwork, he's predictable so the 3 week improvement isn't happening. It doesn't mean they won't win with him but it will take time.
JG
The draw in a sprint is only an advantage if the horse is going to fly from the stalls, grab the rail and lead the race, especially at Beverley! I said York Glory was drawn in 4 and mentioned him when dutching stalls 1-5 and added you may wish to exclude him as he would not front run. He was tardy out of the stalls and he went 15.0 after the first furlong.
He may well have been top rated according RPR (I just checked retrospectively) but many things need to be considered when looking for the best horse. The draw could cost him a few pounds, the turning course, the uphill finish etc etc. So in my view there were 3-4 pounds between 7-8 horses. If you look at OR you will see there was not much in it. So then you must factor in age, running style, draw, course, pace, etc.
On a wide course with a straight run he would've won but at Beverley he was slow away, a danger I highlighted, he would be behind horses etc. You then need EVERYTHING to fall your way as one problem levels the playing field.
These are sprinters, they are beyond 3 years old, they can improve but NOT in the three weeks since their last run. If they could improve and it is a big IF then it may be 1lb or a 2lb at most and I would be very sceptical about that happening. So since April his finishing rating has been 94 103 100 110 114 83 103 so he peaked with an RPR of 114 22/06/13 and this is adjusted for weight carried. That's similar to the ratings I use (don't ask) and it shows he is not going to have much more improvement in him.
You will only find massive improvement if the horse has suffered a minor injury and is now 100%. Perhaps it was a hard horse to train, perhaps it had a slight breathing issue. When these problems are sorted you may get an improvement in 3 weeks. This horse runs like clockwork, he's predictable so the 3 week improvement isn't happening. It doesn't mean they won't win with him but it will take time.
JG