Now it is not often you find me suggesting a favourite of interest but today I have found one. I looked at the early markets and was disappointed by the price on offer as it was too short at 2.10-2.20 IMHO.
Sugar Hiccup absolutely dotted up last time and they seem to have found the key to this progressive 5yo. It would appear the ground is the key but I suspect she may have had a minor ailment which has now been resolved. That's just my view and I could be wrong.
If I was pricing this race then I would have this horse at around 2.10 - 2.20 so for the market to offer 2.70 is a real bonus. I never worry about a drifting price and Summer Dancer yesterday demonstrated why. That horse drifted like the Kon Tiki to around 11 pre-race and then went 1.69 in running and with a clearer run may have won.
Anyway in this race the money has come for the Vaughan horse. My Oh Mount Brown has been out of action for 413 days so must have suffered an injury of some kind. I know this stable has a lot of horses which are gambled and this appears to be another one. I could not bet a horse based on trust i.e. now fit and well to win the race. I need to see a horse perform in the flesh so I can make a judgement.
How do we play this?
I have taken an interest at various prices around 2.70-2.76 as I feel this is a steal. The drift is caused by the early money for My Oh Mount Brown and not because Sugar Hiccup is unfancied IMHO.
So how can we benefit?
This horse travels like a dream and apart from some jumps to the left at Newton Abbot she seems more than capable of winning this. Last time she cruised around Fontwell and won with any amount in hand. So this horse is likely to front run again which should mean the price will contract quite quickly. Even if she is held up off the pace, she won't be too far away and as she travels well then the price should still contract albeit not as a quickly. The other benefit is the price on offer at the moment, 2.76 is too big IMHO and if the money runs out for My Oh Mount Brown then we could see this price head back to around 2.26-2.30 pre-race and may go even lower if punters get stuck in. This gives very little risk to our capital as either way we should get a price contraction offering us a profit.
If the price should drift crazily then just check if My Oh Mount Brown is being supported strongly. Please don't use huge stakes, just be aware this horse has the form to win this race comfortably whereas we have to take a lot on trust about My Oh Mount Brown.
I will be looking trade out at around 2.26-2.30 if it is offered pre-race and if it looks likely to trade lower I may hold on for a better price.
Good luck, sensible stakes and enjoy!!
PS Just one concern. They have watered the ground at Southwell but I am hoping it will dry out by 15:10. The early races will show if the ground is drying, listen to the comments on ATR from jockeys trainers etc. It's not a huge concern but she clearly likes Good/Firm ground.
Southwell 15:10 - race of interest
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JollyGreen
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Thank you for sharing this. I have traded out as I am worried about the mention of "soft" I am happy as it went back to 2.50 and the profit is good. I laid My Oh Mount Brown at 4.7 and it drifted nicely!Zapata wrote:Thanks for sharing your knowledge JG.
Joe Cornwall: "Good to soft"
Jack Quinlan: "Good ground - little soft on top bend"
Last edited by JollyGreen on Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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steven1976
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Brilliant Jolly!
I actually got into it early and had a nice green that I had to have a go with inplay,when they were trying to hold the market up in play. hope a few people filled their boots on that one.
I actually got into it early and had a nice green that I had to have a go with inplay,when they were trying to hold the market up in play. hope a few people filled their boots on that one.
JollyGreen wrote:Thank you for sharing this. I have traded out as I am worried about the mention of "soft" I am happy as it went back to 2.50 and the profit it good. I laid My Oh Mount Brown at 4.7 and it drifted nicely!Zapata wrote:Thanks for sharing your knowledge JG.
Joe Cornwall: "Good to soft"
Jack Quinlan: "Good ground - little soft on top bend"
I also reduced my stake considerably but still picked up enough for a beer. Thanks again.
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JollyGreen
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Thanks to Zapata, Golfer and Steven, I did okay from that one!!
I have to ask one question. How could that horse be a 3.50-4.00 shot after 2 furlongs? Who in their right mind was shoving that price out after such a short distance? The horse Numen went off as if the Devil himself was after him so McCoy was not going to attempt to go with him. As I wrote in my initial post, "she won't be too far away" and that was exactly what happened!
I am not one for after timing but I did take some of my green and back it in running.
Okay so the finish seemed close but I think the ground didn't really suit her. There is some soft in it and this horse needs it like a road! Despite that the form looks good because the first two pulled a long way clear!
Hope you all made some money!
JG
I have to ask one question. How could that horse be a 3.50-4.00 shot after 2 furlongs? Who in their right mind was shoving that price out after such a short distance? The horse Numen went off as if the Devil himself was after him so McCoy was not going to attempt to go with him. As I wrote in my initial post, "she won't be too far away" and that was exactly what happened!
I am not one for after timing but I did take some of my green and back it in running.
Okay so the finish seemed close but I think the ground didn't really suit her. There is some soft in it and this horse needs it like a road! Despite that the form looks good because the first two pulled a long way clear!
Hope you all made some money!
JG
Last edited by JollyGreen on Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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convoysur-2
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just got home now,,
missed it again..but thanks for posting jolly..
Marc
missed it again..but thanks for posting jolly..
Marc
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JollyGreen
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convoysur-2 wrote:just got home now,,
missed it again..but thanks for posting jolly..
Marc
There was big opposition IP but I'm not sure just how much was actually matched on the initial drift (hitting double figures?)
Was it a genuine drift, did it smash a fence/pull etc or was it spoofed out. Seems a huge risk to manipulate IP markets but I wouldn't bet against it.
Aftertiming, don't think you have anything to worry about in that department.
Was it a genuine drift, did it smash a fence/pull etc or was it spoofed out. Seems a huge risk to manipulate IP markets but I wouldn't bet against it.
Aftertiming, don't think you have anything to worry about in that department.
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JollyGreen
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It didn't hit a hurdle and only looked a bit tentative at a couple. I don't think the ground was fast enough for her and we would have seen a different result on her preferred fast ground.
I have some friends who are full time IP punters. Rather than suggest which of them knows what they are doing suffice it to say some of them make stupid calls and lose lots of money!
I have some friends who are full time IP punters. Rather than suggest which of them knows what they are doing suffice it to say some of them make stupid calls and lose lots of money!
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JollyGreen
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Thank you Cat that means a lot! I will try to keep them coming.cat wrote:JollyGreen,although I was not involved in the race you mentioned - may I say thank you for your generous sharing of your racing knowledge.I thoroughly enjoy reading your posts.
