Beverley 14:00 - possible interest in this race

[JollyGreen]

Hi to all

I don't really have too much time to write a post, mainly because I'm not feeling too good!

Anyway, this race is a strange one with Narborough set as favourite with the bookies and 2nd fav on Betfair. It has received support and I am at a loss to know why.

His last run was awful after a couple of promising prior runs so you have to say he isn't a superstar or one you would want to put too much faith in. When you then realise he is drawn 11 of 14 it makes his task even harder. You will recall from my in running tips for Beverley that a low draw is preferable and front runners do well. This horse meets neither of those requirements.

The things I could consider would be the possible going, perhaps they feel this horse needs a bit of cut in the ground so perhaps the recent rain may have helped? You also have to be wary because it's a 2yo and improvement can come. He has had 8 runs so on both counts it's a leap of faith. I am not saying he cannot win, I am saying he is the wrong price IMHO which presents a trading opportunity.

There are numerous ways to play this market.

1. If they support Narborough down to 6.2 - 6.4 I would expect it to drift back out. If the money keeps coming from the lemmings then sit back and wait. Try and get the lower end of the range - easier said than done I know so let me explain. If they push this in to 6.0 and still the money comes then you should be able to see it dry up, perhaps 5.6? I would then look at lay as when others realise the draw is pants they will also be looking to step in. You may get a decent pre-race trade.

2. Lay to back. This horse has been drawn wide so it will take a supreme effort to travel around the outside and still have enough in hand to win. I think you would be very unlucky to not get a bigger price in running.

3. Lay the field below 2.0 e.g. 1.70 as these sprint races often throw up low priced horses that do not win.

I have not looked for the front runners but if you have that data to hand you can Dutch them. You can often Dutch the low drawn horses 1-5 as they have a distinct advantage.

Sensible stakes and enjoy.

[LinusP]

I managed to get Narborough at 8.4 this morning as there was some early money for it, when it finds the bottom I might overlay it with the profit. I am not to bothered with what happens as I only get a tenner matched.

Thanks again Jolly for the info

[convoysur-2]

hi jolly
i just got in from work so i missed your beverly post ,just looked at the results and yes you called it again.
he was beaten from a wide draw,
and stall 1 won the race,
keep em coming,,
Marc

[JollyGreen]

I still cannot understand how this horse was backed so heavily into 1.63 when I could see he was beaten at the 1f marker!