Getting frustrated with the markets
Do you think, Euler,to do that it's best to trade only in higher grade races...or can it be done in all races?Euler wrote:Let the market be your slave and not your master.
Just like Dmbusa i have been caught out a lot the last few days and i notice they are all pretty low grade races. I wonder if in a low grade race there is no clear price so they jump around a lot?
It's much more likely you will have problems in lower quality markets. I had a very messy day yesterday, generally getting something out of most markets but got whapped on two or three which ruined the day. But that's nothing to do with my inability to trade, it just wasn't a great day.
75% of markets are lower quality so you restricted your potential quite a bit by only trading those markets. But the characteristic will generally be big wins and losses and a bumpy P&L. Where it catch most people out is the volatility force people to cut a loss or profit quickly which steals a lot of potential. So your mindset has to shift a bit depending on what you see on the card. Today looks OK, but I'll only know when I start trading it.
I'll have to look at my results but I'm pretty sure most of my profit is crunched into 2/3 days a week.
75% of markets are lower quality so you restricted your potential quite a bit by only trading those markets. But the characteristic will generally be big wins and losses and a bumpy P&L. Where it catch most people out is the volatility force people to cut a loss or profit quickly which steals a lot of potential. So your mindset has to shift a bit depending on what you see on the card. Today looks OK, but I'll only know when I start trading it.
I'll have to look at my results but I'm pretty sure most of my profit is crunched into 2/3 days a week.
that's great advice to alter our mind set depending on the day and good to know it's not my trading at fault...which is a relief after all this time and effort! My day was similar yesterday, out of 17 trades, i had 9 winners, 6 losses which were all within reason...but 2 big losses which came out of the blue.
Today i am going to carry on as normal but use smaller stakes if necessary.
Today i am going to carry on as normal but use smaller stakes if necessary.
Have just watch a replay of the TV coverage of one of the races that went badly wrong, and it appears that at the time I was opening my trade the TV pundit was saying how the horse had no chance of winning due to going, distance, etc. Would have picked that up if I had had the sound on, but find it too distracting.
I'll actually be raising stakes today as the markets look like they will be a bit safer today and more 'tradeable'. But do whatever you need to feel more confident. Looking at the card, I reckon it will be less easy to get into trouble today.
I actually vary my aggression in the market by day and by hour. By keeping records over a very long period of time I figured there were times when my trading seemed more effective than others. So, for example, I'm always rubbish on the first race of the day, it's my worst by far, but I've learnt subsequently that this was because it has so long to accrue volume and the average volume is very weak. QED it's more risky because there is less money and it's more volatile, I can't get out quickly if it goes wrong.
I actually vary my aggression in the market by day and by hour. By keeping records over a very long period of time I figured there were times when my trading seemed more effective than others. So, for example, I'm always rubbish on the first race of the day, it's my worst by far, but I've learnt subsequently that this was because it has so long to accrue volume and the average volume is very weak. QED it's more risky because there is less money and it's more volatile, I can't get out quickly if it goes wrong.
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JollyGreen
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- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I find a lot of novice traders have a strong urge to be involved in the markets. I sometimes watch them and they are jumping into trades when I would be sat waiting and watching. When I ask them why they joined they generally reply along the lines of "I didn't want to miss out" or "I feel I should be involved"
I also get asked can I watch you trade a few races? I will occasionally do this and then I get asked "why are you not doing anything?" or "what if you joined there?" or "why not lay the 2nd favourite?"
I usually tell them it's like a gunfight in the old Wild West. "There's no point being the fastest gun and firing first if you miss the target!" We all know what happened when you missed!!
It can take a few seconds to make a profit so if you actually watch the markets and wait for an opportunity it will help in a few ways.
1. You'll not lose as often
2. Even if you don't trade because you cannot see a trend you haven't lost money.
3. You know because of point 2 that perhaps you need to improve your market reading skills.
The good news is if you follow this advice points 1 and 2 will mitigate your losses and allow you to improve your market reading skills without losing a fortune.
I also get asked can I watch you trade a few races? I will occasionally do this and then I get asked "why are you not doing anything?" or "what if you joined there?" or "why not lay the 2nd favourite?"
I usually tell them it's like a gunfight in the old Wild West. "There's no point being the fastest gun and firing first if you miss the target!" We all know what happened when you missed!!
It can take a few seconds to make a profit so if you actually watch the markets and wait for an opportunity it will help in a few ways.
1. You'll not lose as often
2. Even if you don't trade because you cannot see a trend you haven't lost money.
3. You know because of point 2 that perhaps you need to improve your market reading skills.
The good news is if you follow this advice points 1 and 2 will mitigate your losses and allow you to improve your market reading skills without losing a fortune.
good!...I'm looking forward now trading today, but after yesterday i am going to start off gently until things settle down.Euler wrote:I'll actually be raising stakes today as the markets look like they will be a bit safer today and more 'tradeable'. But do whatever you need to feel more confident. Looking at the card, I reckon it will be less easy to get into trouble today.
Great points JollyGreen but i've read so much i am a bit confused on a couple of things. After just finishing trading in the zone, he seems to advise trading is based on probability, so it is good to trade every race. As long as the loss isn't great and you always accept a loss then the plus will out weigh the minus numbers.
Also, he suggests there is no need to understand markets, or wait for certain patterns...just simply trade with the flow.
Would love to know your thoughts on this because i am beginning to see certain patterns which i like to trade so i guess experience is a big part of it too. Maybe by "flow" he just means understanding?
Also, he suggests there is no need to understand markets, or wait for certain patterns...just simply trade with the flow.
Would love to know your thoughts on this because i am beginning to see certain patterns which i like to trade so i guess experience is a big part of it too. Maybe by "flow" he just means understanding?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
In my humble opinion you should only take note of the mental side of things in Trading in the Zone. The thought process should be the same but I would certainly disagree with the advice of going with the flow and trading every market. Betfair markets are a closed loop unlike financial so they behave differently; similar I will grant you but not the same.redtra wrote:Great points JollyGreen but i've read so much i am a bit confused on a couple of things. After just finishing trading in the zone, he seems to advise trading is based on probability, so it is good to trade every race. As long as the loss isn't great and you always accept a loss then the plus will out weigh the minus numbers.
Also, he suggests there is no need to understand markets, or wait for certain patterns...just simply trade with the flow.
Would love to know your thoughts on this because i am beginning to see certain patterns which i like to trade so i guess experience is a big part of it too. Maybe by "flow" he just means understanding?
If you follow a move i.e. go with the flow, then you are reacting to the market. Yes, you will get the odd good move but you will also find yourself getting hammered as it reverses on you. If you trade every market then you will also struggle especially if you are doing it on probability in the hope the profits will outweigh the losses. You can often try and trade each market but I would sooner abstain if I cannot make sense of what is happening.
Spot on!JollyGreen wrote:The thought process should be the same but I would certainly disagree with the advice of going with the flow and trading every market. Betfair markets are a closed loop unlike financial so they behave differently; similar I will grant you but not the same.
If you follow a move i.e. go with the flow, then you are reacting to the market. Yes, you will get the odd good move but you will also find yourself getting hammered as it reverses on you.
Thank you JollyGreen for your thoughts (an opinion i greatly respect) and they make total sense...and so easy to understand. I am pleased you suggest not trading in every race since I've noticed some are more difficult than others to trade in and as Euler points out...some are and require slightly different mind set.JollyGreen wrote:
In my humble opinion you should only take note of the mental side of things in Trading in the Zone. The thought process should be the same but I would certainly disagree with the advice of going with the flow and trading every market. Betfair markets are a closed loop unlike financial so they behave differently; similar I will grant you but not the same.
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
That's great!Euler wrote:I'd say the markets are like a nagging wife, no matter what you do it always seems to be wrong and she forces you into making bad decisions. So you need to develop a skill set to be able to ignore her constant harassment.
My new office will be NO WIFES ALLOWED!
