People do that already, but it's better to be at the screen and in control because a loose horse could send it haywire. A injury in the warm up before a football match etc. People sat at their desk have an edge over those who are not. Sports markets are very different from financial markets, despite sharing some similarities. I don't scalp on Betfair the same way I would in financials.JayBee wrote:Another question to ask the scalpers would be, If you could encapsulate what you do logically and craft a bot from it so that you don't have to sit at a screen all day growing a spare tyre, would you do so? Or are your "gut feelings" that random and unquantifiable? Even feelings that depend on x or y count as fuzzy logic, which too is quantifiable.
Scalping - Momentum, Reinforcement and Speed
In conclusion...
I am not here to learn how to be a scalper. I have worked with pit traders at the LIFFE and understand that a Betfair scalper is no different to a LIFFE trader working on their own account. They are not there to hedge institutional liabilities, they are there to make profit off market sentiment. They get "the feeling" and jump in.
My original post was just thinking out loud, what I believe to be underlying market force for most scalpers, i.e. jumping on the bandwagon that has no driver and no destination.
I have no interest in being a scalper. I know that the best scalpers make a handsome profit. I also know that the majority of scalpers are hobbyists and that most earn little more than pocket money and have jobs to support themselves with.
If I have hurt the feelings of aspiring scalpers then I say give it a go but do understand the underlying mechanisim, namely herding and first in gets the largest profit and last out is left holding the baby. You might want to look at swing trading and opposing obvious scalping movements, which can be less risky.
I am not here to learn how to be a scalper. I have worked with pit traders at the LIFFE and understand that a Betfair scalper is no different to a LIFFE trader working on their own account. They are not there to hedge institutional liabilities, they are there to make profit off market sentiment. They get "the feeling" and jump in.
My original post was just thinking out loud, what I believe to be underlying market force for most scalpers, i.e. jumping on the bandwagon that has no driver and no destination.
I have no interest in being a scalper. I know that the best scalpers make a handsome profit. I also know that the majority of scalpers are hobbyists and that most earn little more than pocket money and have jobs to support themselves with.
If I have hurt the feelings of aspiring scalpers then I say give it a go but do understand the underlying mechanisim, namely herding and first in gets the largest profit and last out is left holding the baby. You might want to look at swing trading and opposing obvious scalping movements, which can be less risky.
As I have posted before, I agree with Jaybee that "scalping" in the pre race markets is an almost impossible task and not one that novice traders should attempt.
However, having looked at the website, I see a man scratching his head and I am sure from the articles that it must be the author. To criticise a process, ie scalping, you first of all have to understand the definition of the word. PeterLe is absolutely correct in his assertion that the odds do not have to move to be able to scalp; in fact if the odds do move then you are patently NOT scalping since the essence of this form of trading, by technical definition, requires that you buy and sell at the current back and lay odds.
The articles then illustrate by way of example some helpful trader going about his business of demonstrating how to trade in Betfair employing a form of range trading. I do not know whether Caan Berry is or is not a successful trader but there is no evidence to suggest that he is doing anything wrong but obvious evidence that he is patently not “scalping”. Is he employing a Martingale system of betting? Absolutely not, if you understand the Martingale system at all.
The more I read on the web site the more I form the conclusion that the author has little or no idea about pre race horse markets and quotes many erroneous examples making significant judgements about such markets. For example claiming that the markets are Brownian in nature and that they move in a totally random pattern just confirms the sort of statements that novices, until they get a basic grasp, make about pre race markets. All pre-race horse markets have a pattern, a form of movement that is repeated ad nauseam and a set of drivers that operate in every single market.
The author also claims that “just because a horse in a betting market suddenly starts rising in price does not mean that it will mean revert and start shortening again. At any time if the price of a horse goes up then the next price move will either be up, down or it will remain stationary with equal probability of each”
I could post a thousand detailed examples why this statement is nonsense but it only takes a rudimentary understanding of pre race charts to conclude that the patterns observed and repeated over and over again are simply not the product of some random particle suspended in fluid.
I am sure the author appreciates, as we all do, that there are many forms of trading the pre-race markets and whether some traders take a short term or long term view to ply their strategy, all that matters is that their method works.
To label every trading style as “scalping” is not only blinkered but is a generalisation too far.
However, having looked at the website, I see a man scratching his head and I am sure from the articles that it must be the author. To criticise a process, ie scalping, you first of all have to understand the definition of the word. PeterLe is absolutely correct in his assertion that the odds do not have to move to be able to scalp; in fact if the odds do move then you are patently NOT scalping since the essence of this form of trading, by technical definition, requires that you buy and sell at the current back and lay odds.
The articles then illustrate by way of example some helpful trader going about his business of demonstrating how to trade in Betfair employing a form of range trading. I do not know whether Caan Berry is or is not a successful trader but there is no evidence to suggest that he is doing anything wrong but obvious evidence that he is patently not “scalping”. Is he employing a Martingale system of betting? Absolutely not, if you understand the Martingale system at all.
The more I read on the web site the more I form the conclusion that the author has little or no idea about pre race horse markets and quotes many erroneous examples making significant judgements about such markets. For example claiming that the markets are Brownian in nature and that they move in a totally random pattern just confirms the sort of statements that novices, until they get a basic grasp, make about pre race markets. All pre-race horse markets have a pattern, a form of movement that is repeated ad nauseam and a set of drivers that operate in every single market.
The author also claims that “just because a horse in a betting market suddenly starts rising in price does not mean that it will mean revert and start shortening again. At any time if the price of a horse goes up then the next price move will either be up, down or it will remain stationary with equal probability of each”
I could post a thousand detailed examples why this statement is nonsense but it only takes a rudimentary understanding of pre race charts to conclude that the patterns observed and repeated over and over again are simply not the product of some random particle suspended in fluid.
I am sure the author appreciates, as we all do, that there are many forms of trading the pre-race markets and whether some traders take a short term or long term view to ply their strategy, all that matters is that their method works.
To label every trading style as “scalping” is not only blinkered but is a generalisation too far.
I'm always surprised when people say that, as I've always found scalping one of the simplest things to explain. I can easily frame an objective with scalping and what you need to do, when and how.James1st wrote:As I have posted before, I agree with Jaybee that "scalping" in the pre race markets is an almost impossible task and not one that novice traders should attempt.
Where would you recommend people start?
I agreeJames1st wrote:All pre-race horse markets have a pattern, a form of movement that is repeated ad nauseam and a set of drivers that operate in every single market.
Are you consistently profiting from it, if you don't mind me asking?switesh wrote:Scalping's not that hard.
But what if the people you're up against have bots?switesh wrote: How quick & accurate are you to the draw. This is something the trader has absolute control over and can master with sufficient practice.
In the split second it takes you to spot a pattern and click your mouse button, the bot has already entered its money into the market.
So do you think that, if I have an average internet connection, it's possible I'll stand no chance against people who have cable internet connections, particularly if they have a more direct route to the Betfair server than I do?switesh wrote:How fast is your responsive counter.
Jeff
Last edited by Iron on Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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steven1976
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I would seriously recommend starting on other sports with a definite direction. This way you can feel and see things more clearly. The horse racing markets move so quick and are quite often dressed up in fancy lights and have no definite direction until any money arrives. People can get themselves bogged down on the horses looking for the perfect position.
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steven1976
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Playing against the bots is not that hard to be honest Jeff. The problem to most though if they want to scalp is they have a few big disadvantages. 1st, I talked about a lot (self matching bets) and the second is money, 3rd they believe someone else is going to come in and rescue that loosing position.
Just been reading JayBee's article.
I disagree with him re. survivorship bias. There are people who have profited from scalping for so long that the chances of it being due to randomness are astronomically small.
Back in January, I submitted a comment to Jaybee about his original article, which outlined my concerns about scalping:
- How do you decide which markets are and aren't suitable for scalping? I want something precise and mathematical, not a method that relies upon some almost mystical feel for the markets!
- Long term, if enough people start scalping, or if fewer impatient traders take money from the queue, then you may not be able to get enough money through the markets to compensate you for the times when the market moves strongly against you.
Jeff
I disagree with him re. survivorship bias. There are people who have profited from scalping for so long that the chances of it being due to randomness are astronomically small.
Back in January, I submitted a comment to Jaybee about his original article, which outlined my concerns about scalping:
- How do you decide which markets are and aren't suitable for scalping? I want something precise and mathematical, not a method that relies upon some almost mystical feel for the markets!
- Long term, if enough people start scalping, or if fewer impatient traders take money from the queue, then you may not be able to get enough money through the markets to compensate you for the times when the market moves strongly against you.
Jeff
Jeff, you should continue the discussion on here really as it will be of value to everybody, rather than taking traffic off the forum.
TBH I think Jaybee has got most of the article wrong, it's more of an attempt to justify a viewpoint rather than discus it, but it's quite easy to disprove most of it. But once a view is entrenched its almost impossible for people to see any other.
I can spot a suitable market many hours out and can you when to get involved, when to stop and exactly what to do and when. I wouldn't rank Speed isn't the most critical factor when scalping, though obviously having it is always going to be useful.
TBH I think Jaybee has got most of the article wrong, it's more of an attempt to justify a viewpoint rather than discus it, but it's quite easy to disprove most of it. But once a view is entrenched its almost impossible for people to see any other.
I can spot a suitable market many hours out and can you when to get involved, when to stop and exactly what to do and when. I wouldn't rank Speed isn't the most critical factor when scalping, though obviously having it is always going to be useful.
Jeff
On one of the earlier posts you had a link to 50 tips for traders; one of them was "Plan your trade,trade your plan"
That fits nicely with this topic.
You can't scalp every market effectively, some are intrinsically better than others (you wouldn't use the putter off the tee). I'm not actively promoting it, but Peter's course covers it in depth, so it would be unfair to those who have paid for the knowledge to state it all on here.
to get to break even (less commission) using scalping is easy, even on auto. To get beyond that, is very hard work, almost exponential in terms of time/reward. It is achieveable though
Regards
Peter
On one of the earlier posts you had a link to 50 tips for traders; one of them was "Plan your trade,trade your plan"
That fits nicely with this topic.
You can't scalp every market effectively, some are intrinsically better than others (you wouldn't use the putter off the tee). I'm not actively promoting it, but Peter's course covers it in depth, so it would be unfair to those who have paid for the knowledge to state it all on here.
to get to break even (less commission) using scalping is easy, even on auto. To get beyond that, is very hard work, almost exponential in terms of time/reward. It is achieveable though
Regards
Peter
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maycontainnuts
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From Jaybees blog
This seems to imply you are not aware that you only pay commission on your net profit at settlement?If a scalper is 50% successful then for every 1 tick of profit he also loses 1 tick on losing trades. Overall he will lose because a 1 tick loss loses more than a 1 tick win. There is also commission to be paid on winning trades, which also eats into profits. A scalper needs to have more ticks of profit than losses to overcome transaction fees (tick win/loss difference, commission, equipment and power costs). If a trader is merely guessing (with feeling rather than logic) then it is hard to see how a scalp trade can do better than 50%.
Yes, I scalp a lot on AUS racing. But I also let quite a few scalps turn into medium swings if I feel confident enough. That's the most I've improvised I thinkFerru123 wrote:Are you consistently profiting from it, if you don't mind me asking?
Been consistently profitable since last Oct when I started with only $25 stakes, and then kept pushing myself and gradually increasing my stakes until recent weeks where I deploy my entire small bank of $1500 on single trades or will split it into smaller lots of $XXX and deploy it in the market without getting my heart rate racing million miles a second.
My worst Red's and biggest panics (almost heart failures) have all been when I've been caught in-play because Aus markets have a VERY VERY VERY poor liquidity in-play and so I push the market trying to panic exit in-play. Even the best markets in Melbourne like Caulfield, Flemington, & Mooney Valley are no match for Lingfield for in-play volume.
But trading extremely close to the off also presents an opportunity sometimes, like a rose with thorns. For example, I once watched a market for 5 mins and saw/did nothing, then traded only last 30 secs of official off time + 30 secs of post-time and pulled out $35 green in that short span.
I was just executing orders and letting the market do the rest of the work.
Or as JayBee would say "I was looking for scraps and was fast to the draw."
My PL levels haven't scaled up as I hoped. I did get very close to my first 3 digit green on quite a few occasions but missed out every time. I don't force it though, I just look at markets where I can set myself up for bigger greens.
Overall though, my avg PL per/trade is quite small. Currently it's hovering around $5 per trade. So you can see that I'm no big trader either. Just small and steady.
Oh yes, there are quite a few bots, I can't see or spot all of them, but some are quite obvious in thin markets. On quite a few occasion I've opened a position and held my nerve and waited for bots to jump over me. When they do that I scale out (or exit) in small portions on the other side. Infact, just intuitively I feel bots somehow contribute to the fill rate so I just trade normally without worrying about them.Ferru123 wrote:But what if the people you're up against have bots?
In the split second it takes you to spot a pattern and click your mouse button, the bot has already entered its money into the market.
By connection speed I meant the BA Responsive counter (displayed on the bottom left of the BA main interface). If you can get that to be consistently less than or around 50 ms you'll be fine with scalping. Scalping with 375 ms turnaround makes the job harder even for the fastest gun in the west.Ferru123 wrote:So do you think that, if I have an average internet connection, it's possible I'll stand no chance against people who have cable internet connections, particularly if they have a more direct route to the Betfair server than I do?
Jeff
On a general note I'll also say that AUS markets have a slightly different feel to them, or atleast I seem to sense them differently than UK markets. Intuitively I feel them moving at a slower pace compared to UK markets. So shooting at a fast moving target is harder than one that moves slight slower.
I'd want it the other way around, and there's a good reason why. The markets have a certain energy or feel in the way they move. (day of week, or type of race, or construction of prices).Ferru123 wrote:I want something precise and mathematical, not a method that relies upon some almost mystical feel for the markets!
Jeff
Yesterday for instance, the flow (rush of money) in the market died out after the delay at Hamilton and that would've made it harder to find swings accompanied with volume.
I know you've got Adam Heathcote's Entry/Exit posts pinned to your wall. I think he mentioned in one of his posts (can't remember which one at the top of my head) that he traded the markets a lot just based on intuition. He emphasised the 'Feel' of the market as quite a vital quality to a good trader.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I'm with switesh. I much prefer an uncertain market to a controlled market. If I play on the horses which is rare now, I would only get involved in a short race of 5f or 7f and just 20 seconds before the off.
No doubt, but basing trading decisions on 'a certain energy or feel' isn't rigorous or scientific. In fact, it possibly amounts to gambling.switesh wrote: I'd want it the other way around, and there's a good reason why. The markets have a certain energy or feel in the way they move. (day of week, or type of race, or construction of prices).
I like the idea of trading like a casino, i.e. you have a well defined edge based on a theory of how the market behaves in a particular situation, which you've tested extensively, and when x happens, you do y. It might be boring, but I'm in the market to make money; if I want to be entertained whilst losing money, I'll go on a casino site.
Also, if you're trading using your gut:
- How can you be sure that you're going to do today whatever caused you to be successful in the past, when you can't define what you did in the past?
- How do you back test your approach?
- How do you avoid allowing your judgement to be affected by fear and greed, by things going on in the market, and by the mood you're in today? If you think you're immune from cognitive biases, you're wrong - I doubt anyone is.
No I don't - You're possibly thinking of PeterLe.switesh wrote:I know you've got Adam Heathcote's Entry/Exit posts pinned to your wall.
He did, although that doesn't mean it will work for everyone. And it may be that his use of intuition was limited and that he operated within the confines of well-defined approaches.switesh wrote:that he traded the markets a lot just based on intuition. He emphasised the 'Feel' of the market as quite a vital quality to a good trader.
Jeff