Umh! Wolves changes everything
Heres one for discussion. Since yesterday I have been trying one of new searches for the 'holy grail' on every race albeit on practice (I know would be different live). Strike rate upto about 90% and turnover far outways losses. Great I say then along comes Wolves and everything goes tits up. This may re-inforce what I have seen others mention on the forum that Wolves is just a hand shake between jockeys! Does anyone make a success at Wolves?
Yes it would be interesting to hear his thoughts. The stradegy I am trying is a 'form; of laying the field. By this method I wouldnt of thought it would have made that much difference except every race tonight at Wolves has returned a loss. Could just be a bad run I suppose but a little coincidental though eh! If there is an explanation I am sure it would be over my head though but just thought I would post and see others thought.
If you look at tonight's racing at Wolves out of the 8 races, only 2 favorites won and most were quite short odds.
Time/Distance/Fav SP/ Fav Win or Lose/Fav Lowest in play odds
17:45 /5f /3.63 /L /1.2
18:15 /5f /2.69 /L /1.6
18:45 /5f /1.7 /W
19:15 /7f /3.05 /L /2.3
19:45 /1m4f /3.11 /L /2
20:15 /1m4f /1.37 /L /1.11
20:45 /1m4f /3.06 /L /2.28
21:15 /1m4f /2.94 /W
Time/Distance/Fav SP/ Fav Win or Lose/Fav Lowest in play odds
17:45 /5f /3.63 /L /1.2
18:15 /5f /2.69 /L /1.6
18:45 /5f /1.7 /W
19:15 /7f /3.05 /L /2.3
19:45 /1m4f /3.11 /L /2
20:15 /1m4f /1.37 /L /1.11
20:45 /1m4f /3.06 /L /2.28
21:15 /1m4f /2.94 /W
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I will need to give some thought to this. To me, Wolverhampton provides low grade racing which is unreliable or as Euler says "Bingo on legs"
The big area of concern for a trader is the amount of trackside trading. This course was probably the first for the "laptop boys" and although I have heard they have stopped trading from the hospitality boxes they still frequent the on-site hotel. So how will this affect pre-race markets?
Well IMHO I think it is a combo of trades from paddock inspection, when the horses move to the start and when the race takes place. The first two cause irregular price movements pre-race which could explain why they seem harder to trade. Okay, I know this occurs at other courses but we must bear in mind Wolves offers weak markets so they are more susceptible to spikes etc. due to the lack of volume.
As Euler mentioned, we did meet up and I was amazed when shown the favourites data for this course. If there are decent judges at the course it could explain some of the data but that would be a big if IMHO! I will speak to some of the guys I know who trade from the course and see what they offer.
JG
The big area of concern for a trader is the amount of trackside trading. This course was probably the first for the "laptop boys" and although I have heard they have stopped trading from the hospitality boxes they still frequent the on-site hotel. So how will this affect pre-race markets?
Well IMHO I think it is a combo of trades from paddock inspection, when the horses move to the start and when the race takes place. The first two cause irregular price movements pre-race which could explain why they seem harder to trade. Okay, I know this occurs at other courses but we must bear in mind Wolves offers weak markets so they are more susceptible to spikes etc. due to the lack of volume.
As Euler mentioned, we did meet up and I was amazed when shown the favourites data for this course. If there are decent judges at the course it could explain some of the data but that would be a big if IMHO! I will speak to some of the guys I know who trade from the course and see what they offer.
JG