Man Utd v Crystal Palace
Man Utd have not made the best of starts under David Moyes, having not scored in their past two games and now been subject to ridicule after their manoeuvrings in the transfer window. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are off and running after a first win in their last game.
United shouldn’t panic, however, given they earned the same number of points from the equivalent fixtures last season and certainly weren’t outplayed by Liverpool or Chelsea. It would certainly be a huge surprise if they went a third game without scoring. Since 2010/11, they’ve won 17 of 18 home matches against teams that finished in the bottom six (as we expect Palace to do) and they averaged 3.39 goals per game in those matches. 72% of the 18 matches resulted in Win/Win doubles and 78% saw the Red Devils win by at least two goals, with half by three or more. Furthermore, they’ve won 14 of 15 home games against promoted teams since 2008/09, with 11 wins to nil.
Crystal Palace are yet to concede before half-time but while QPR and Wigan, last season, both stopped United from scoring in the first half at Old Trafford they both ended up losing by at least two goals and we’d expect the same here in that eventuality. The win to nil looks a great price at evens and we’d split stakes between that and Man United on the Asian Handicap -2.0 at 2.07.
Given how Palace have kept things tight early on so far this season and United strong record of winning to nil against promoted teams we’d be wary of backing over-goals with Over 2.5 as short as 1.5. However, we’d expect the champions to take advantage as Palace tire and Over 1.5 goals in the second half looks a great price at 1.8.
Levante v Real Sociedad
After losing their first half this season 6-0, at Barcelona, Levante have been fairly solid. They’ve conceded just two further goals in 2.5 games since and are looking tough to beat under Joaquin Caparros.
Levante have lost just 5/18 home games since the start of last season excluding against the Big Two. Furthermore, they’ve W7-D2-L4 when hosting top-half non-Big Two teams since 2011/12. These teams were both promoted three years ago but Sociedad are still looking for a win in their head-to-heads and have lost on their last three trips to the Valencian club.
Sociedad have Champions League distractions next week and they are missing a couple of key defenders. Inigo Martinez and Carlos Martinez are both injured and since the start of last season Sociedad have W16-D11-L2 when both have been playing but just W3-D2-L7 otherwise. Given this, Levante are excellent value and can be backed at 1.9 on the Asian Handicap +0.25.
Sociedad qualified for the Champions League on the back of an attacking fluid style last season and eight of their last 17 matches have had +3.5 goals. This contradicts Levante’s style, but in the six meetings between the teams since 2010/11 both teams have always scored and four of the matches have had +2.5 goals. With Sociedad having scored in 11 of their last 12 away games and with a weakened defence we’d also expect Levante to score. 10 of Levante’s last 13 home games when they’ve conceded have had +2.5 goals and that looks the value at 2.14.
DC United v LA Galaxy
DC United have had a pretty wretched season and sit nine points behind the second worst team in the league. They have, however, made the US Open final, due to be played at the end of the month, and that is where their focus is now. LA Galaxy meanwhile, have been in excellent recent form and while they suffered a surprise defeat last weekend, Form Labs followers will know that was mostly a result of their star players being away on international duty. This week, Keane, Donovan and Gonzalez are all set to return.
LA have W7-D2-L2 with Donovan and Keane both playing this season, compared to W6-D2-L8 otherwise, and both have scored five times in their last four appearances. Furthermore, this tends to be a good fixture for them as they’ve not lost in their last eight meetings with DC since 2008. With DC having lost eight of their last 12 home matches and LA having won five of their last eight trips to bottom-six teams the value is clearly on the away team. LA Galaxy are well worth backing at 2.05.
We advised under-goals last week on the basis that LA’s stars were missing, but this week we should probably expect goals. DC have actually scored in six of their last eight matches, and five of their last six at home. Half DC’s last 10 home games against top-half teams have had +3.5 goals, as have five of LA’s last six trips to bottom-half teams. Over 2.5 goals looks great value at 1.92.
Weekend match previews
Betfair sent this, this evening.
Man Utd v Crystal Palace: At Old Trafford
Man Utd last failed to score in consecutive home games back in August 2007, and when Ian Holloway managed Blackpool his side scored twice in both Premier League matches against Man Utd. Tip: Back Both teams to Score.
Everton v Chelsea:
Chelsea have won just two of their last 10 Premier League trips to Merseyside (W2 D2 L6), and the Toffees have failed to win any their first four league matches only three times in the last 43 seasons. Tip: Lay Chelsea.
Southampton v West Ham:
Southampton have scored just four goals in their last eight Premier League matches, while West Ham failed to register a shot on target in their last top flight match. Tip: Back Under 2.5 Goals.
Man Utd v Crystal Palace: At Old Trafford
Man Utd last failed to score in consecutive home games back in August 2007, and when Ian Holloway managed Blackpool his side scored twice in both Premier League matches against Man Utd. Tip: Back Both teams to Score.
Everton v Chelsea:
Chelsea have won just two of their last 10 Premier League trips to Merseyside (W2 D2 L6), and the Toffees have failed to win any their first four league matches only three times in the last 43 seasons. Tip: Lay Chelsea.
Southampton v West Ham:
Southampton have scored just four goals in their last eight Premier League matches, while West Ham failed to register a shot on target in their last top flight match. Tip: Back Under 2.5 Goals.
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FootballFormLabs
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Spurs v Chelsea
Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.
Four of the last six meetings between these teams have finished all-square and if we look at the 10 head-to-heads since 2008/09 there hasn’t been much between the two sides with a W2-D5-L3 record for Spurs.
Spurs have lost just one of their last 15 home matches, during which only Everton have managed to score twice at White Hart Lane. Furthermore, The Lillywhites have won four and lost just two of their last 10 home games against top-six sides.
Chelsea have not found their net in their opening two away games this term and they seem to be paying the price for Jose Mourinho’s decision to ignore their most creative player, Juan Mata. Since joining the club Mata has missed only 10 away games and The Blues have the unenviable record of not winning any of them (W0-D5-L5) – scoring just five goals in the process. Since the opening 30 minutes on the first day Chelsea have looked far from convincing and Spurs look great value at 1.91 on the Draw No Bet.
Of their combined games this season, nine of 10 have had fewer than three goals (6/10 -1.5). Again we’d point to seven of the 10 away matches Mata’s missed, and 8/11 anywhere since the start of last season, having fewer than three goals. Contradicting this is the strong record of both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals, both teams have against top-six teams. -2.5 goals was decent value at 1.95 earlier in the week but that’s come down to a best price of 1.83 and at that price we’d leave it alone and stick to the match outcome markets.
Hoffenheim v Schalke
Hoffenheim have offered plenty of excitement this season with their opening six games seeing a massive 30 goals. They’re unbeaten at home this season, and against an inconsistent Schalke side they’ll look to extend that run. Schalke have lost two of their three away games and were thrashed at home last weekend by Bayern.
It’s surprising to see Hoffenheim as outsiders here given they’ve never lost at home to Schalke, who are without a couple of important players. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is still injured, and in the 14 matches he’s missed since the start of last season Schalke have lost six times. This includes five defeats in the eight away games he’s missed, during which they’ve scored only six goals. Furthermore, Schalke have lost nine of their last 16 away matches, including five of their last six trips to middle-third teams.
Hoffenheim have improved since last season, and even then they had a respectable record of W3-D1-L3 record hosting teams that finished 3rd-9th. They had to play 120 minutes in midweek but the extra 30 shouldn’t overly affect them with no significant injury worries. At 2.1 they look a really solid bet on the Draw No Bet market.
Hoffenheim have scored before half-time in all their six games this season, and their last 14 matches have all featured at least three goals (8/14 +3.5). Schalke’s scoring power might be reduced without Huntelaar but three of the five games he’s missed this season have had +2.5 goals, as have seven of their nine away games since the start of last season when conceding in the first half (W0-D2-L7). This match finished 3-2 to Hoffenheim last season and a repeat looks possible with over 3.0 goals a good looking 1.962 with Pinnacle.
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Last season Atletico came into the first derby of the season having lost just one of their opening 13 games. They lost 2-0 and then lost the second derby later in the season to make it eight consecutive derby defeats in the league. They did, however, win the Copa del Rey final against their rivals in May, courtesy of an extra-time winner so will hope they have now ended the hoodoo which had seen them go 25 games, and almost 14 years, in all competitions without beating Real Madrid.
This time Atletico have won their opening six games while Real have been unconvincing in winning five. However, Atletico have not played a team currently in the top half yet while Real are unbeaten in 34 home games including 20 wins in their last 21 at the Bernabeu. 16 of those 20 wins were by more than one goal and while Atletico have lost only five away games since the start of last season four were by more than one goal. 1.7 looks a huge price on Real and we’d back them on the Asian handicap -1.0 at 2.2.
Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.
Four of the last six meetings between these teams have finished all-square and if we look at the 10 head-to-heads since 2008/09 there hasn’t been much between the two sides with a W2-D5-L3 record for Spurs.
Spurs have lost just one of their last 15 home matches, during which only Everton have managed to score twice at White Hart Lane. Furthermore, The Lillywhites have won four and lost just two of their last 10 home games against top-six sides.
Chelsea have not found their net in their opening two away games this term and they seem to be paying the price for Jose Mourinho’s decision to ignore their most creative player, Juan Mata. Since joining the club Mata has missed only 10 away games and The Blues have the unenviable record of not winning any of them (W0-D5-L5) – scoring just five goals in the process. Since the opening 30 minutes on the first day Chelsea have looked far from convincing and Spurs look great value at 1.91 on the Draw No Bet.
Of their combined games this season, nine of 10 have had fewer than three goals (6/10 -1.5). Again we’d point to seven of the 10 away matches Mata’s missed, and 8/11 anywhere since the start of last season, having fewer than three goals. Contradicting this is the strong record of both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals, both teams have against top-six teams. -2.5 goals was decent value at 1.95 earlier in the week but that’s come down to a best price of 1.83 and at that price we’d leave it alone and stick to the match outcome markets.
Hoffenheim v Schalke
Hoffenheim have offered plenty of excitement this season with their opening six games seeing a massive 30 goals. They’re unbeaten at home this season, and against an inconsistent Schalke side they’ll look to extend that run. Schalke have lost two of their three away games and were thrashed at home last weekend by Bayern.
It’s surprising to see Hoffenheim as outsiders here given they’ve never lost at home to Schalke, who are without a couple of important players. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is still injured, and in the 14 matches he’s missed since the start of last season Schalke have lost six times. This includes five defeats in the eight away games he’s missed, during which they’ve scored only six goals. Furthermore, Schalke have lost nine of their last 16 away matches, including five of their last six trips to middle-third teams.
Hoffenheim have improved since last season, and even then they had a respectable record of W3-D1-L3 record hosting teams that finished 3rd-9th. They had to play 120 minutes in midweek but the extra 30 shouldn’t overly affect them with no significant injury worries. At 2.1 they look a really solid bet on the Draw No Bet market.
Hoffenheim have scored before half-time in all their six games this season, and their last 14 matches have all featured at least three goals (8/14 +3.5). Schalke’s scoring power might be reduced without Huntelaar but three of the five games he’s missed this season have had +2.5 goals, as have seven of their nine away games since the start of last season when conceding in the first half (W0-D2-L7). This match finished 3-2 to Hoffenheim last season and a repeat looks possible with over 3.0 goals a good looking 1.962 with Pinnacle.
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
Last season Atletico came into the first derby of the season having lost just one of their opening 13 games. They lost 2-0 and then lost the second derby later in the season to make it eight consecutive derby defeats in the league. They did, however, win the Copa del Rey final against their rivals in May, courtesy of an extra-time winner so will hope they have now ended the hoodoo which had seen them go 25 games, and almost 14 years, in all competitions without beating Real Madrid.
This time Atletico have won their opening six games while Real have been unconvincing in winning five. However, Atletico have not played a team currently in the top half yet while Real are unbeaten in 34 home games including 20 wins in their last 21 at the Bernabeu. 16 of those 20 wins were by more than one goal and while Atletico have lost only five away games since the start of last season four were by more than one goal. 1.7 looks a huge price on Real and we’d back them on the Asian handicap -1.0 at 2.2.
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FootballFormLabs
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Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of their home games. Everton have drawn half their 22 away games since the start of last season, including six of their last nine trips to top-half teams. Furthermore, in the past three seasons they’ve lost only 9/17 trips to top-six finishers, with seven draws. This suggests there is some value on the draw.
However, we expect Sergio Aguero, and probably David Silva, to return to the side that lost at Aston Villa. City’s win rate with Aguero is 72%, compared to just 54% without, while Silva’s is almost the same. In the 28 home games Aguero has started and completed at least an hour, City have won 25 times, including 16/19 hosting top-half teams. Furthermore, 15 of those 19 home games were against teams that also finished in the top half and 12 resulted in City wins, with 10 by one or two-goal margins. Dutching City to win by one goal at 3.7 or two goals at 5.25 returns at 2.17 and that looks the best bet in the match outcome markets.
Everton’s last two games have both finished 3-2 and Roberto Martinez’ Wigan side were generally an attacking side that delivered high-scoring games. Six of City’s last nine home games against top-half teams have finished with +2.5 goals. The Toffees have scored in 14 of their last 15 games against City and since 2011/12, 16/18 home games that City have conceded in have had +2.5 goals, with 13 having four or more. Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet here at 1.8.
Leverkusen v Bayern
This represents both teams third-toughest league fixture of the season and with both teams in excellent form it should be a good game. Leverkusen were exposed a bit at Old Trafford recently, but they have a decent record against the Bavarian giants. Since 2009/10 they’ve lost just 3/8 meetings, including only one of four at home.
Since the start of last season Leverkusen have won 16 of 21 home games with just two defeats. However, those defeats were in their two games against Bayern and Dortmund. Bayern, meanwhile, have won 19 of their last 22 away games, without being beaten. The champions have not been at their most fluid this season and rank only sixth for goals scored. However, they remain very hard to break down under Guardiola, and the only time they’ve conceded more than once in their last 25 away matches was on the final day last season.
We’d expect Bayern to win, but coming off a tough Champions League game it won’t be easy, and to win by exactly one goal at 4.0 looks the best value. This would have won in half Leverkusen’s last six home games against top-six teams and in three of Bayern’s 10 trips to top-six sides since 2011/12.
With two such potent attacks the natural instinct is to expect goals. However, since 2011/12 just one of Bayern’s 10 trips to top-six teams has had more than three goals, and 7/10 have had -2.5 strikes. As have five of their last six games this season. Only one of the 10 meetings between these teams since 2008/09 has had more than three goals, with half having -2.5. Under 3.0 goals should be a good bet here at 1.86.
Juventus v AC Milan
Juventus and Milan have made contrasting starts to the season, with Juve already establishing an eight point advantage over their rivals.
Juve have won 14 of their last 17 home matches, and Carlos Tevez has already netted three league goals to give them an extra bite up front. Impressively, the Bianconeri have won all 10 of their home games against top-six finishers in the past two seasons, and seven were by more than one goal.
Milan have lost 7/10 trips to top-six finishers in the past two seasons and five by more than one goal. Their defence has been a major problem this season as they’ve conceded at least twice in all three away games. Do that here and they’ll lose – Juve have won their last 39 matches when scoring two or more goals, and we’d back them on the Asian Handicap -1.0 at 1.97.
Juventus have had only two home games so far this season, but both have had +2.5 goals, as have half their 10 home games against top-six finishers in the past two seasons. Significantly, though, six of Milan’s last seven trips to top-six finishers have had +2.5 goals, and half their 22 away games since the start of last season have had four or more strikes. Juve’s greater potency this season coupled with Milan’s ‘overs’ nature makes +2.5 goals look a good bet at 1.8.
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of their home games. Everton have drawn half their 22 away games since the start of last season, including six of their last nine trips to top-half teams. Furthermore, in the past three seasons they’ve lost only 9/17 trips to top-six finishers, with seven draws. This suggests there is some value on the draw.
However, we expect Sergio Aguero, and probably David Silva, to return to the side that lost at Aston Villa. City’s win rate with Aguero is 72%, compared to just 54% without, while Silva’s is almost the same. In the 28 home games Aguero has started and completed at least an hour, City have won 25 times, including 16/19 hosting top-half teams. Furthermore, 15 of those 19 home games were against teams that also finished in the top half and 12 resulted in City wins, with 10 by one or two-goal margins. Dutching City to win by one goal at 3.7 or two goals at 5.25 returns at 2.17 and that looks the best bet in the match outcome markets.
Everton’s last two games have both finished 3-2 and Roberto Martinez’ Wigan side were generally an attacking side that delivered high-scoring games. Six of City’s last nine home games against top-half teams have finished with +2.5 goals. The Toffees have scored in 14 of their last 15 games against City and since 2011/12, 16/18 home games that City have conceded in have had +2.5 goals, with 13 having four or more. Over 2.5 goals looks the best bet here at 1.8.
Leverkusen v Bayern
This represents both teams third-toughest league fixture of the season and with both teams in excellent form it should be a good game. Leverkusen were exposed a bit at Old Trafford recently, but they have a decent record against the Bavarian giants. Since 2009/10 they’ve lost just 3/8 meetings, including only one of four at home.
Since the start of last season Leverkusen have won 16 of 21 home games with just two defeats. However, those defeats were in their two games against Bayern and Dortmund. Bayern, meanwhile, have won 19 of their last 22 away games, without being beaten. The champions have not been at their most fluid this season and rank only sixth for goals scored. However, they remain very hard to break down under Guardiola, and the only time they’ve conceded more than once in their last 25 away matches was on the final day last season.
We’d expect Bayern to win, but coming off a tough Champions League game it won’t be easy, and to win by exactly one goal at 4.0 looks the best value. This would have won in half Leverkusen’s last six home games against top-six teams and in three of Bayern’s 10 trips to top-six sides since 2011/12.
With two such potent attacks the natural instinct is to expect goals. However, since 2011/12 just one of Bayern’s 10 trips to top-six teams has had more than three goals, and 7/10 have had -2.5 strikes. As have five of their last six games this season. Only one of the 10 meetings between these teams since 2008/09 has had more than three goals, with half having -2.5. Under 3.0 goals should be a good bet here at 1.86.
Juventus v AC Milan
Juventus and Milan have made contrasting starts to the season, with Juve already establishing an eight point advantage over their rivals.
Juve have won 14 of their last 17 home matches, and Carlos Tevez has already netted three league goals to give them an extra bite up front. Impressively, the Bianconeri have won all 10 of their home games against top-six finishers in the past two seasons, and seven were by more than one goal.
Milan have lost 7/10 trips to top-six finishers in the past two seasons and five by more than one goal. Their defence has been a major problem this season as they’ve conceded at least twice in all three away games. Do that here and they’ll lose – Juve have won their last 39 matches when scoring two or more goals, and we’d back them on the Asian Handicap -1.0 at 1.97.
Juventus have had only two home games so far this season, but both have had +2.5 goals, as have half their 10 home games against top-six finishers in the past two seasons. Significantly, though, six of Milan’s last seven trips to top-six finishers have had +2.5 goals, and half their 22 away games since the start of last season have had four or more strikes. Juve’s greater potency this season coupled with Milan’s ‘overs’ nature makes +2.5 goals look a good bet at 1.8.