Today's Horse Racing
Today was the worst day all week. Each day this week ive done well and increased my bank nicely but then today came along!
Not sure why, but it was like just starting out again with prices moving all over the place, so I did what i know i shouldn't do and lt some go in play...just for a bit...and that was that. Luckily in the back of my mind were things i read from jollygreen about discipline and so didn't lose all my bank. So at least i don't have to put any in this week which i am pleased about.
Think i am getting there but its a choppy sea at times.
Not sure why, but it was like just starting out again with prices moving all over the place, so I did what i know i shouldn't do and lt some go in play...just for a bit...and that was that. Luckily in the back of my mind were things i read from jollygreen about discipline and so didn't lose all my bank. So at least i don't have to put any in this week which i am pleased about.
Think i am getting there but its a choppy sea at times.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
I think it's been happening for a lot longer than you realise jimbo however these days it's more noticeable as less people are in the horse markets due to sports book or just sick of the market turning against every entry position. Therefore it feels more aggressive than in the past.jimrobo wrote:this is just whats its like now in the markets day in day out. I am convinced something is sucking the liquidity out of the markets. Whether its betfair themselves or a 3rd party it is definitely being manipulated.
The market makers old argument will be that they provide liquidity but I believe what they are doing will damage the eco system as I don't imagine many new people will try horse pre race trading and go away and tell 5 friends about it. Instead, they will lose a few hundred quid and give up on it.
Manipulating a market by putting in big numbers is one thing but when they are just eating up their own money it can cause a crowd to follow as they see money being matched rather than pulled out of the market and for me this is a line that bf should stop. I'd imagine it's also in bf interests to investigate it as I'd imagine there is some money slipping out that they would like to tax on a higher level.
Peter, I've just read your recent blog on risk management and it is fantastic,thanks,...going to read it over a few times to let it all sink in. This week for me ive had some very good days but friday spoiled it all and after reading your blog, its because i didn;t do the things you talk about very well...tried but not well enough! So I now know risk management is the thing i have to work on so the blog couldn't have come at a better time.Euler wrote:It's really messy today
Just one question about it, If the first trade of the day is good, do you find all trades are then good but if the first is bad, are they all bad after that? This then determines your approach for the day?
This particular behaviour is new, though we've seen variances of it come and go before.steven1976 wrote:
I think it's been happening for a lot longer than you realise jimbo
Tbh I'd say the level of manipulation was quite a bit higher years ago when more people were trading and when many of us were starting out than it has been this year, at least until the last few weeks. The higher the percentage of people that trade compared to those that bet the easier it becomes for 'them'
steven1976 wrote: I'd imagine it's also in bf interests to investigate
Having traded both Thursday & Friday there was definitely signs of much higher levels of manipulation on the Friday, which I believe is why so many of us struggled. I was definitely panicing in many certains situations (exiting too quickly with a loss) whereas Thursday felt much more steady especially towards the end of the day. I don't believe it's anything sophisticated, just someone with a lot of money trying to frighten the markets. Some days their in the market and some days their not. I just think it's more noticeable, because their comfortable to now participate the larger markets like Newmarket. Maybe the larger markets are now weaker.
Also, if you look at the three afternoon meetings on either day, Pontefract & Perth offered a better quality of races on Thursday, whereas Haydock & Worcester offered mainly class 5 races on the Friday. Newmarket on the Friday obviously looked the most appealing market in the morning, but the lower odds on the favourite made it open to manipulation (in my opinion) and I suspect like other people the drifts on the favourites hurt any potential profit.
Also, if you look at the three afternoon meetings on either day, Pontefract & Perth offered a better quality of races on Thursday, whereas Haydock & Worcester offered mainly class 5 races on the Friday. Newmarket on the Friday obviously looked the most appealing market in the morning, but the lower odds on the favourite made it open to manipulation (in my opinion) and I suspect like other people the drifts on the favourites hurt any potential profit.
