Sometimes you get lucky....very lucky!!

[JollyGreen]

I have had a bad run of days where I am feeling so I tend to relax in front of the TV or simply lie down and snooze.

Yesterday a very good friend came to visit me. I gave him his first sales job many years ago and we have stayed friends. He is fascinated by trading but has never really tried it. So anyway we were watching the racing build up and I talked to him about the recent propensity for horses to be backed into crazy prices. He has no concept of betting so I explained that you will lose if you bet two horses below 2.0; I then setup Bet Angel to LAY ALL at 1.6 and set the stakes at £50. I wanted to see if the finish was going to be close before I fired the bets into the market.

So at the 1F marker at Windsor I could see a potential fight to the line so I fired in the bets. UH OH.....I stupidly hit BACK ALL and then sat there in amazement as suddenly everything was green and there was a large amount on the eventual winner. I now had to explain to my mate that it was complete luck and was not likely to happen again any time soon!

[JollyGreen]

Just to add this was not the first at Windsor where the winner was matched at 1000. I wasn't that lucky but I did get some of my order matched at 44!!!

[LinusP]

With there being 8 runners, that could have gone very badly!

[JollyGreen]

With there being 8 runners, that could have gone very badly!

It could have been very bad but as I said I was very lucky and a total mistake on my part.

[BJGardner]

I think it was Gary Player who said the more I practice the luckier I get

[Zenyatta]

Jolly, my friend, you have stumbled on the Zenyatta method of success...hit buttons totally at random, subject yourself to games of pure chance, and do much better than anything consciously planned

A kick and a half to win big isn't it? I'd wager your feeling upon seeing the big unexpected green was a heady mixture of excitement/happiness/shock. Multiply that feeling 100x and you will know what it's like to win the national lottery.

[Golfer]

Anyone trading the 14.55 York IP?

I pretty sure someone just layed the whole field out to 500+, I wasnt quick enough to get any of the action unfortunately but that it looks sore for someone!

[PeterLe]

Anyone trading the 14.55 York IP?

I pretty sure someone just layed the whole field out to 500+, I wasnt quick enough to get any of the action unfortunately but that it looks sore for someone!

Ive just seen your other post in the Today thread...
Unless Ive got the maths wrong I dont see how a back at 1.01 (or whatever it was) can produce a lay above 100?
I know it happens a lot, but its not logical??! Nice if you can catch the odd one or two!

[LinusP]

Anyone trading the 14.55 York IP?

I pretty sure someone just layed the whole field out to 500+, I wasnt quick enough to get any of the action unfortunately but that it looks sore for someone!

Ive just seen your other post in the Today thread...
Unless Ive got the maths wrong I dont see how a back at 1.01 (or whatever it was) can produce a lay above 100?
I know it happens a lot, but its not logical??! Nice if you can catch the odd one or two!

Why not Peter, if there was a field of 20 horses and one is trading at 1.01 and the rest at 100 then the book percentage would be at 118%. They could all go up to 500 and the book percentage would still be at 103%, I assume a lot of market making bots work off the book percentage.

[PeterLe]

Hi
Its some time since I looked at this, but when I worked through some calculations using the Cross Matching Algorithm:-

1 / (N –∑ 1/(best to lay price of other runners))

(found here: - http://bdp.betfair.com/index.php?option ... &Itemid=62

I dont think it entirely reliant on te book price.
Now matter how low your bet is, I couldn't understand how it could affect odds above 100's. Ie if you placed a back bet at 1.01 you are asking for odds 100/1 against. This shouldn't manifest itself as a lay bet at 500 as the odds would be worse. Perhaps Ive got it wrong, but it goes against what XM is trying to achieve?

Maybe if there are any mathematicians amongst us they can confirm whether a large back bet at 1.01 will create a spike over and above 100 on other horses?

The approach I took was; forget what is theoretically possible and try it anyway. Virtually every day these days, there are spikes/trades available that in theory should never be presented in the first place

Regards
Peter

[LinusP]

Yes if it was a 2 runner market then a 1.01 back equals a 1/100 lay on the other, but if there is more than 1 runner it would have to be over 100 to satisfy the book percentage.

Im going to look into it again...