When I looked at this card I had to double check I was not still asleep. I was amazed to find Makari trading at 2.64 on Betfair and so stepped in with a decent lay order. Now most of you on here know me by now but I will reiterate I am NOT saying this horse cannot win. I am saying the price is crazy based on a number of things.
His sire was basically a sprinter as was his Grand Sire Fairy King. The progeny of these sires are predominantly sprinters and they usually require firm ground. Well today he tackles 2m 1/2f on soft ground!
His action suggests Good ground will suit, it is not totally round and he does not have a high knee action. I am surprised to see him stand his ground but it could be his trainer feels the need to get a run into him.
He has run 7 times in total with 4 NHF (Bumper) races and 3 hurdles. He has managed to win just once at Fakenham on Good/Soft ground. Now Fakenham is a tight track which drains very well and I believe the ground that day was more Good then Good/Soft. Even in that race he had to work hard to win and I personally think he stole it from the front when his jockey very cleverly kicked away. It's a short run in at Fakenham and the rest couldn't get to him.
I have noticed he is poor at his hurdles, he tend to almost bunny hop them and does not appear to be a natural. He doesn't bend his back very well which means he tends to stutter into them and then having jumped he lands on all fours. This costs him ground and so he is always at a disadvantage.
So that is a lot of negatives if you want to back a horse at 2.66 - 2.70. I for one would rather take him on.
So are there positives? Well his trainer is good so I am sure he has been schooling him at home. He has won a race albeit a poor one. I think a lot of people will be betting on a combination of potential and his trainer. When he came second in a Novice hurdle at Southwell he was beaten by Robbie who has now risen to a mark of 132 and won off it. So if we use strict handicapping as a yardstick then 113 is fair. However Makari made his handicap debut off 112 and was beaten by the best part of 20 lengths!!
I know he can probably win but he needs to improve his jumping, handle the ground and he needs to stay the 16.5f. That is a lot to expect when the price is 2.70. Now if he is priced at 4.5 then okay you could take a chance on him but he's not going to be that price.
I reckon that with his poor jumping and his stamina/ground worries this has to trade bigger in running. I think a back to lay should offer a decent profit. Remember, only you can decide which price to trade out at. You may find he travels okay for a long way but I think with 2 hurdles to go you'll see pressure being applied...if not sooner!
Good luck, small stakes and enjoy!
JG
Horse to oppose? Huntingdon 14:20
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Nope me neither. I have a rather large 4 figure red on this one and I had intended to trade out in running. Looks for prayer mat and hopes his form analysis is correct!!PeterLe wrote:Dont think Betfair will be back up for this one JG?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Well talk about getting it wrong! The only good thing was I had a chance to get out when he went 3.25 early. After the usual crap service from Betfair I was happy to trade out for a profit and then wrap things up. I will not be bothering again this afternoon!
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
They are taking quite a while to settle the 2pm
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
they said they are manually trying to settle the markets. Could be some time next year unless they have a good calculator