I'd appreciate your thoughts

[JollyGreen]

I am not really up to trading at the moment so I tend to research a few races and place some lay to back orders.

In the 16:10 Windsor I really didn't like the look of Gravitational, it certainly had no pull on me....ouch that is bad!

So I placed my lay bet and then decided I would not back it back in running. I just could not see this horse handling the ground based on his action. I watched the race closely and nearly choked when I saw it backed into 1.52

So how on this earth could anyone back that horse into 1.52 when I do not think it was ever better than 4th or 5th place? It sat in behind and at 3f out it never looked happy but perhaps I am blind?

So what do you guys think? I have heard there is a chance some people are money laundering and just backing things in running in the hope of finding the winner. I am not saying that is true but it could be one explanation.

I would appreciate another view.

JG

[steven1976]

My thoughts are and have been clear for a long time jolly. There is a lot of self matching bets that make up the market that look to take on money short term to sell off through fear. Therefore, I believe inplay a lot of the flashing lights are not real at all, big sums of money are used to look like the market is being pushed in a certain direction for people to panic and sell out. If you don't panic then the market eventually comes back slowly towards the last furlong. If for example you left an open lay at the off they will push down the price untill they feel anything actually touch them.

I find it easier to see in ausy racing if you leave a position open in a really weak market. You will see the spread they create is quite often just below a green position and use amounts that would need to take on quite a lot of risk. Room for thought anyway. The numbers flashing around in the horses seem never to change and yet on football markets the liquidity is getting so much lower so who is all the money in the horses?

[JollyGreen]

I watched a race at Limerick where they once again backed Kayf Blanco into ~1.50 and it finished 5th and beaten 10-12 lengths. The race at Musselburgh was another weird one because they pushed Commissioned out to a high of 12 in running and yet he was doing nothing wrong. He did go wide on the paddock bend but that's quite normal on such a tight track. Then he came with a very late run to win!

I get a lot of so called "experts" telling me it's because I don't have fast pictures but my reply to them is simple.....BOLLOCKS!! I can record the price data and then replay the race and quite simply there are either some bad race readers or people who don't worry about losing their money...perhaps both! IMHO if they see a horse get ridden they hit lay, if they see a horse leading they hit back. It seems they do this without any great knowledge of how a horse runs or how to ride a horse. I have watched where a horse is bustled along just to keep its position or to prevent it from being boxed in and suddenly the price shoots out.

Whatever it is, there is some crazy stuff going on.

[LinusP]

Wasn't Commissioned pushed out to 12 due to Deficit being backed as well, it seems most in-play guys back to 1.11 or 1.01 so if they are backing two horses at the same time it is going to bounce all over the place.

I personally don't think anyone is "controlling" inplay, there is just less liquidity around.

[Golfer]

Huge lumps being thrown around today(2k flasher, 2k that wanted to be matched and then 6-10k spread over a few prices)

This was happening towards the start/middle of a race, can't keep up at the end

[JollyGreen]

I personally don't think anyone is "controlling" inplay, there is just less liquidity around.

I agree I do not believe it is possible to control it. I personally believe a lot of people are chasing money and driving the price down. I am just surprised that it's lasting so long.

[steven1976]

Maybe nothing is opposing it?

[LinusP]

Yeh, if you put £100 at 8s you will get bots jumping over other bots to the point where it's trading at 5 before you know it. I had a profitable strategy working with min stakes, as soon as I upped it to £4 stakes it lost me money simply because someone was sticking £2 in front of me. It drives you mad.

[steven1976]

If you put 100 quid on the back side at 8s at the off in say a 3m race, I would imagine the odds will shoot out to about 14s and only ever come back in the last furlong if it had any chance at all.

[JollyGreen]

Despite it appearing like chaos, the in running market is pretty stable. I mentioned a few things to Peter in the past and he ran some data on it. He was also rather amazed at how efficient the in running market was/is!!

I still believe that some people are backing these horses in the belief they are going to win. Obviously someone is benefiting from this because they are happily laying them. I look at some races and cannot believe my eyes when they smash something down to ~1.5 and I can see it is beaten with more than 1f to go! Okay so you get the odd mistake but it happens far too often for it to make any sense.

[gutuami]

have a look at the volume of inplay markets.

[PeterLe]

Thanks for sharing that G
I just plotted the "in Play Vol"/number of races to get an average vol per race and then plotted it.

It seems strange that the higher vols are between Oct and April? My best months ever were in the winter months (which has always surprised me; but looking at that chart it is less so)

Also notice that cross Matching didnt appear to change things much either?

Regards
Peter

[gutuami]

this is because longer races = longer inplay time = more volume

[gutuami]

today I spent a few hours to analyse data of inRunning volumes. For a dipper analysis I picked up 2mile races. Here's what I got.

[LinusP]

Interesting stuff, cross matching probably didn't make a difference because betfair had been using it before they said they had..