I'd appreciate your thoughts

[JollyGreen]

That is some interesting and well worked info, thank you for sharing Gutuami!!

[jimrobo]

huge decline in the pre in play volumes I think pretty much sums up why all the traders are finding it tough. We are competing for all competing for breadcrumbs!

I would be interested if the volumes are still up at betdaq or have experienced the same dip

[Euler]

today I spent a few hours to analyse data of inRunning volumes. For a dipper analysis I picked up 2mile races. Here's what I got.

I'm not sure 2m races are the best? They often tend to be NHF races, so I think that may distort things. Maybe run the analysis on the highest frequency of race distance?

[gutuami]

2m is the highest frequency race distance: 13.92% ~ 8k races from 62k. But even with distortion there are too many negatives in volume comparison. Which one do you think is better?

[Euler]

I tend to split jumps to >=2m and flat <2m and look at them separately. Some crossover but pretty small. Then I'd choose the highest frequency in that grouping.

[gutuami]

here's the 2miles detailed. This should reflect a clearer picture BUT first it has to be analysed. Then will have conclusions.
To anybody: if you make same interesting charts, or analysis out of it - share.

[gutuami]

and the final conclusion is: the volumes in 2013 are definitely down in comparison to 2012. And that's true for 2m's. I can guess the picture would be the similar on other distances but can not say for sure until I see stats.
Here I've cut the casual races getting a sample of 8314 which is down 396 races from 8710.

[Euler]

Three minutes to go at Punch 16:45, 10k matched!

[jimrobo]

Its fairly obvious before you even dive into the numbers liquidity is really taking a dive on betfair. The problem betfair has is it is slowly been gathering momentum and I suspect it will go beyond the point of no return way before betfairs management will take any action.

[LinusP]

I wonder if the decrease in volume in the exchange equals the volume taken on the sportsbook. And how that is affecting profit, I can't see the sportsbook being that profitable tbh as I have taken a good wedge of any profit from being allowed to arb them.

[superfrank]

Its fairly obvious before you even dive into the numbers liquidity is really taking a dive on betfair. The problem betfair has is it is slowly been gathering momentum and I suspect it will go beyond the point of no return way before betfairs management will take any action.

it's muppetous what they've done with the exchange - they are typical of British business in general, i.e. it's all about short-term profits to satisfy (1) shareholder demands for s/t capital gain, and (2) the chief exec's (and his management team's) bonus for the current year. if BF was a German business (preferably privately owned) it would be run for the long-term and the likes of us would be appreciated.

[jimrobo]

They probably sit up in their ivory tower reading things like this laughing at us thinking we are the crazy ones!

[superfrank]

They probably sit up in their ivory tower reading things like this laughing at us thinking we are the crazy ones!

yeah, more like living it up in 5* hotels and fine dining. the thing is, big business management generally does nothing more than a bit of public speaking (to the pleb staff and the media) and pays fortunes to consultants to tell them what strategic decisions to make (to get that big bonus and get the shareholders off their backs). they probably pay consultants to read our sh1t!

[JollyGreen]

You recall I was left with a large liability on a horse when the exchange crashed. I enquired about hedging on the sportsbook and could not believe the prices. I could get 2.76 2.88 with Bookies but it was only 2.60 on the Sportsbook and they would not accept much money. It does seem to be small time based on that experience but how did you guys find it...assuming of course you've used it?

[Iron]

That's curious, given how low a price 2.6 is.

I wonder whether they look at how people perform on the Exchange when determining their sportsbook limits.

Jeff

it was only 2.60 on the Sportsbook and they would not accept much money.