I'd appreciate your thoughts
yesterday's lows. Unfortunately I did not capture the first part of overview window, but it's easy to find out the which horses traded low too apart from Jump City and Goring One. They are: Al Alfa, Velator and Cardigan Island
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I have done some checking on this during the week. I have been a bit 
so can only trade for about 5-6 races before I can't really concentrate or see the screen properly. I therefore decided to watch the races both on normal ATR/RUK and then on a fast feed via a friend's place.
It is now apparent there are a lot of people trying to make "easy money" and are backing horses in the belief they will win. Before any in-running player thinks I am having a dig, please let me explain. Clearly some people know the time of day and they are making good money. Despite this, there are people who think there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow when we know there isn't.
If there was anything like a close finish then 2, 3 and sometimes 4 horses were all backed into crazy prices. On two separate races at different courses a horse was backed into ~1.3 and it never ran better than 3rd place. Now I appreciate you can look at a horse running well and think it may win but 1.3 is mental.
Most us on here (special thanks to Gutuami for his excellent spreadsheets) understand liquidity is poor and therefore it allows prices to drop quickly. However, a lot of us on here also know that the prices are wrong and someone has their setup or their eyes aligned very poorly.
To prove this in my unscientific manner I watched lots of races and simply compared the running of the race with the price data. Where it was obvious, or as obvious as it could be, that a particular horse would win then only that horse attracted significant support. If there was any doubt and there were 3-4 horses in contention at the last obstacle or the last furlong then crazy things happened and prices went mentally low.
It seems the markets have come full circle. About 6-7 years ago you could often lay the field at <1.8 and a close finish ensured a profit. Then the clock beaters spoiled all that and it wasn't viable. Now, if you can see a potential close finish it works again. PLEASE do not think it can be done blind, I have not tested enough to say that, it requires some skill and input from you when a close finish is likely.
The next question; when will it turn full circle again? Well when the pot of gold chasers run out of money I would presume!
so can only trade for about 5-6 races before I can't really concentrate or see the screen properly. I therefore decided to watch the races both on normal ATR/RUK and then on a fast feed via a friend's place.It is now apparent there are a lot of people trying to make "easy money" and are backing horses in the belief they will win. Before any in-running player thinks I am having a dig, please let me explain. Clearly some people know the time of day and they are making good money. Despite this, there are people who think there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow when we know there isn't.
If there was anything like a close finish then 2, 3 and sometimes 4 horses were all backed into crazy prices. On two separate races at different courses a horse was backed into ~1.3 and it never ran better than 3rd place. Now I appreciate you can look at a horse running well and think it may win but 1.3 is mental.
Most us on here (special thanks to Gutuami for his excellent spreadsheets) understand liquidity is poor and therefore it allows prices to drop quickly. However, a lot of us on here also know that the prices are wrong and someone has their setup or their eyes aligned very poorly.
To prove this in my unscientific manner I watched lots of races and simply compared the running of the race with the price data. Where it was obvious, or as obvious as it could be, that a particular horse would win then only that horse attracted significant support. If there was any doubt and there were 3-4 horses in contention at the last obstacle or the last furlong then crazy things happened and prices went mentally low.
It seems the markets have come full circle. About 6-7 years ago you could often lay the field at <1.8 and a close finish ensured a profit. Then the clock beaters spoiled all that and it wasn't viable. Now, if you can see a potential close finish it works again. PLEASE do not think it can be done blind, I have not tested enough to say that, it requires some skill and input from you when a close finish is likely.
The next question; when will it turn full circle again? Well when the pot of gold chasers run out of money I would presume!
DaveJollyGreen wrote: To prove this in my unscientific manner I watched lots of races and simply compared the running of the race with the price data. Where it was obvious, or as obvious as it could be, that a particular horse would win then only that horse attracted significant support. If there was any doubt and there were 3-4 horses in contention at the last obstacle or the last furlong then crazy things happened and prices went mentally low.
When you say went mentally low, do you mean on all the horses in contention?
Strangely enough, I was running a test on wednesday, on races that was showing a close finish and on the day it returned appx 4.2 x stake money.
I havent got the figures at hand, but it was the last few races at Kempton that produced the best wins of the day I seem to recall. (I left it running on auto whilst we were at the cinema and was pleasantly surprised when I saw the results)
I posted on here a few weeks ago (think it was chart of the day, where almost every race was showing 2 or more under 2's)..
I think there are lots of opportunities low down the odds, but its hard to catch them (unless you are watching the screen and can make a good judgement??)
Regards
Peter
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JollyGreen
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- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Hi peter
Yes mate the horses in main contention all went below 2.0 sometimes 4 of them. I appreciate that trying to the prices set correctly is hard. If you go too low you make more profit and assume less risk but your strike rate suffers. I tend to watch the race and if I can see a few horses with a chance around the 1f marker on close to the last obstacle then I try to lay all.
As you know it is often just two horses below 2.0 and then you get 3 occasionally. It does happen where 4 manage to get smashed in but sadly that is not regular!!
Yes mate the horses in main contention all went below 2.0 sometimes 4 of them. I appreciate that trying to the prices set correctly is hard. If you go too low you make more profit and assume less risk but your strike rate suffers. I tend to watch the race and if I can see a few horses with a chance around the 1f marker on close to the last obstacle then I try to lay all.
As you know it is often just two horses below 2.0 and then you get 3 occasionally. It does happen where 4 manage to get smashed in but sadly that is not regular!!
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
As I said, you cannot do it blind.LinusP wrote:Laying the field at 1.50 on every race would give you a profit of -£2000 ish not including commission in 2013. As Peter has mentioned numerous times on this forum you have to be selective.
it would be nice from betfair to exclude commission on lay all bets. Maybe that will stop prices jumping around so much. There was a race at Cheltham where the price of a horse could not pass down by 2 inrunning simply because there were too much money laying.