Football prices and time decay

[thewald]

Morning

I have built a model for pricing football markets up pre match and am looking to develop this for in running betting but cant for the life of me work out how to adjust prices as the time decays during the match. Is there a specific calculation?

I have played around with the unders/overs market using a reduction/increase of just over 1% for each minute elapsed. It only works while the game remains 0-0 though, I don't know how to incorporate the scoring of a goal.

Any help would be greatly appreciated, Thanks

[thewald]

Hi

I have begun recording data using the spreadsheet posted by i-XL (thanks) for the over/unders markets and have plotted this onto a graph.

If i insert a logarithmic trendline I et the following equation

y = -0.10ln(x) + 1.640

Using this equation does give me reducing prices for the unders market as time decays, but it doenst correspond to the data I recorded

Can anybody tell me if I am heading in the right direction.

Thanks

[Euler]

Price in a football match is a function of how many goals are likely to be scored by either team in the time remaining. Most people seem to model it the other way around.

[thewald]

Thank You

Back to the drawing board

[Euler]

Have you played with Soccer Mystic?