Lay the field strategy

[stevequal]

Stumbled across this blog post yesterday, thought it was quite interesting.

http://www.sportismadeforbetting.com/20 ... ategy.html

What I found most interesting and something I had never considered was that most people in the comments suggest that courses that have the worst camera angles tend to yield better ROI.

I'd been looking at the statistics for Wolverhampton, but it appears the A/W tracks are the hardest to profit from.

[JollyGreen]

This has been around for a long time and as you can see Scott wrote it in 2009. It cannot be performed blind although LinusP did say the data showed it was profitable laying at 1.01

Having said that there are a lot on in running players now and they are using fast pictures to supposedly gain an advantage. I say supposedly because I don't think some of them would spot a horse if it ran over them. You are getting horses backed into crazy prices like 1.3 and they never get out of 3rd place.

A course with a poor camera angle helps the strategy because it makes it very difficult to see which horses is actually leading. You will also find it happens a lot when the ground is softer and there is an uphill finish. Players back the leader into a low number but the combo of ground and hill can cause a tired horse to stop quickly so suddenly another horse gets backed.

The AW tracks are hard because the "clock beaters" are there in abundance - some of them are clued up so it means they often get the prices first.

[stevequal]

Jolly, I was just reading a forum response you wrote on the subject last year on the same subject. I just thought it was interesting as two people responded in January of this year (in the comments at the bottom), with some statistics from 2008 that highlighted potentially profitable & unprofitable courses. There is interesting point at the end about how much data you need to collect as Worcester which was once considered profitable, had become unprofitable.

The 1.01 type lay strategies don't appeal to me. You have to wait a while for hit, you might not get matched and there still isn't a lot to support any real profit. Laying at 3 at 3's, 4 at 4's etc is something I was beginning to explore, cutting the data by course, distance and SP's. I thought this might be better avenue, because it's more about the underlying nature of the way a race unfolds rather than being track side looking to beat the pack.

[JollyGreen]

Worcester is probably no longer profitable because the "clock beaters" are now trading from a hospitality box at the course whereas they weren't before.

[JollyGreen]

Here is what you can do when you can see a bunched field on heavy ground. These are 2yo maiden fillies so they were always likely to struggle in the conditions.

You'll note I only used £10 stakes at 2.64 and managed to get 4 matched.

Now before someone berates me for being irresponsible you can see I wrote about the conditions of the race and the going. On heavy ground I would be surprised if this didn't work on more races today!

Small stakes and enjoy!

EDIT: You could drop the price to ~2.20 - 2.30 if you want. Some days you have to adjust things

lay_all_264.jpg

[JollyGreen]

Here is another one. You'll notice I went to 2.5 on this race just to show you can adjust.

I am not bothering with the hurdle at Wexford as their's a short priced favourite and not enough runners that are competitive.

lay_all_250.jpg

[JollyGreen]

This one makes the hat-trick. I went £20 at 2.64 and still won despite the winner totally routing the field by around 8 lengths!

Okay so it's not a massive return but you can see that with the right race type and conditions you can make it pay.

lay_all_264_20.jpg

[JollyGreen]

I will pass on Aintree unless the ground proves heavy. I do not think it is the type of course that suits this strategy. Now watch four go 1.3 in running in the 13:55!!

[JollyGreen]

If you had laid the field at <2.0 then it would have worked in the Aintree 13:55. It shows that some poor race readers and clock beaters are about because they smashed the 3rd placed horse into 1.32

Aintree1355.jpg

[JollyGreen]

More madness in the Stratford 14:10 they backed Phase Shift into 1.33 and it never got out of 2nd!

[PeterLe]

..and again...best one of the day for me so far!

[Zenyatta]

When I first started using BetAngel in 2010, I experimented extensively with a lay-the-field strategy for some months. I was never able to do better than break-even and gave up on it.

[stevequal]

Jolly, I missed your posts because I was focused on pre-race stuff. That's certainly opened up some thoughts for potential opportunities.

Is 2.64 a figure you've based on previous race data?

Also while I remember are you going to resume your bet angel blog posts? I think you only did one, but I thought it was very interesting.

[JollyGreen]

Is 2.64 a figure you've based on previous race data?

Also while I remember are you going to resume your bet angel blog posts? I think you only did one, but I thought it was very interesting.

Yes in a way. I simply decided it was a price to give me a chance to make it work based on recent races where multiple horses had been backed into crazy price.

I will try and write some more blog posts. Sadly, I wrote the first one and the my health took a nose dive again so the posts were put on hold

[PeterLe]

When I first started using BetAngel in 2010, I experimented extensively with a lay-the-field strategy for some months. I was never able to do better than break-even and gave up on it.

Extensively? Was you able to conclude anything ? Did you work out which courses/distances were profitable and those that weren't?