Nope, no course, distance or condition was ever profitable. The last straw was after I'd been trying lay-the-field for over a year, one day early 2011, in competitive fields, on heavy tracks (which everyone says is great for lay-the field), favourites romped home all day, busting my bank.PeterLe wrote:
Extensively? Was you able to conclude anything ? Did you work out which courses/distances were profitable and those that weren't?
Lay the field strategy
Hmm are you sure about that? No offence but sounds like awful bank management..Zenyatta wrote:Nope, no course, distance or condition was ever profitable. The last straw was after I'd been trying lay-the-field for over a year, one day early 2011, in competitive fields, on heavy tracks (which everyone says is great for lay-the field), favourites romped home all day, busting my bank.PeterLe wrote:
Extensively? Was you able to conclude anything ? Did you work out which courses/distances were profitable and those that weren't?
LinusP, I remember that day early 2011 quite distinctly, because I was in Australia at the time.LinusP wrote:
Hmm are you sure about that? No offence but sounds like awful bank management..
The tracks for the UK racing were all heavy, and the fields were very competitive. Everyone was going on about what a great day it would be to lay-the-field.
Instead, the nightmare ensured. Something like 20 favourites in a row came in, with not a single close race (every single favourite that went under 2.0, went on to win by a big margin).
I've dug into Betfair timeform data today. I picked Galway and Newbury which has had meetings on heavy ground conditions recently. I also took the data from Market Rasen from 2013 which is considered a good place to lay low odds inplay (from what I have seen on various blogs). I've attached both if anyone is interested.
Although a bigger data sample is really needed, when I played around with different odds for both and couldn't find a way to cut it easy to eek out a profit. Market Rasen does though create a small profit at low odds.
I am not necessarily surprised by the results as I could imagine that edges inplay are small. But I am wondering if inplay is really an art rather than a science. I was having a dabble myself and kept wondering when to enter the market.
Jolly & Peter would you say you've needed to watch several hundreds of races to develop your edge?
Although a bigger data sample is really needed, when I played around with different odds for both and couldn't find a way to cut it easy to eek out a profit. Market Rasen does though create a small profit at low odds.
I am not necessarily surprised by the results as I could imagine that edges inplay are small. But I am wondering if inplay is really an art rather than a science. I was having a dabble myself and kept wondering when to enter the market.
Jolly & Peter would you say you've needed to watch several hundreds of races to develop your edge?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
I would be surprised if Peter had any edge In-Play. Jolly, I can believe, because he's a horse racing expert.stevequal wrote:
Jolly & Peter would you say you've needed to watch several hundreds of races to develop your edge?
Generally, I found that having some knowledge of horse racing and focusing on very specific selections to back or lay in very specific races is far more effective than searching for generic stats-based strategies.
Hi
Jolly and myself have different approaches to the in play market. Jolly has a talent for choosing horses that has odds that are either too high or too low and then devising a unique strategy for that particular horse.
Like many, Ive done well off the back of those posts Jolly has made. Long may they continue.
I dont have that level of knowledge of horse racing. Ive tried to develop it and test it (using products like pro form for instance), but I found I wasn't getting the results in terms of P&L that I was getting from my normal strategies. (there are some people on here that use profiling software to great effect by the way)
The approach I took (and its stood me in good stead over the years), in fact its prob the best advice I EVER had was by Peter. I cant remember if he told me or if it was in one of his posts etc...but the advice was "Think of a potential strategy; (ie you have to use common sense here), trade at random (you will loose very little), analyse your data (ie linked to this theme of this post), hone and refine cutting out parameters that are showing negative expectations. Rinse/Repeat. If you devise an edge, slowly start to compound your profits. (You will hit a ceiling, where your stakes reach a level of diminishing returns. Your ideal stake is just under that curve)
Ive always keep my own records, and they have over the years shown consistent that certain things work on certain courses etc..(I have maybe 4/5 good strategies and combine them or sometimes run a single strategy etc)
Almost to the point where I stopped analysing the data because it always shown the same characteristics.
Now here's the strange thing. Over the last 12 mths or so, some of those characteristics have started to change. For example, I would never had traded on auto on Wolverhampton, but it seems to be doing well at the moment? I dont know if it has a big enough sample yet, so the jury is still out.
So to answer Zen's question, No I dont know how horses are likely to preform in play to the extent that Jolly does, but I do know which strategies to employ on which courses/distance etc. That alone has helped me generate profits in the super PC bracket.
I think LeTiss mentioned on another post yesterday about it being much harder these days and I would agree with that, but its not impossible. You now have to put in more effort to achieve the same result. Its bloody hard work at times, but its a good challenge!
regards
Peter
Jolly and myself have different approaches to the in play market. Jolly has a talent for choosing horses that has odds that are either too high or too low and then devising a unique strategy for that particular horse.
Like many, Ive done well off the back of those posts Jolly has made. Long may they continue.
I dont have that level of knowledge of horse racing. Ive tried to develop it and test it (using products like pro form for instance), but I found I wasn't getting the results in terms of P&L that I was getting from my normal strategies. (there are some people on here that use profiling software to great effect by the way)
The approach I took (and its stood me in good stead over the years), in fact its prob the best advice I EVER had was by Peter. I cant remember if he told me or if it was in one of his posts etc...but the advice was "Think of a potential strategy; (ie you have to use common sense here), trade at random (you will loose very little), analyse your data (ie linked to this theme of this post), hone and refine cutting out parameters that are showing negative expectations. Rinse/Repeat. If you devise an edge, slowly start to compound your profits. (You will hit a ceiling, where your stakes reach a level of diminishing returns. Your ideal stake is just under that curve)
Ive always keep my own records, and they have over the years shown consistent that certain things work on certain courses etc..(I have maybe 4/5 good strategies and combine them or sometimes run a single strategy etc)
Almost to the point where I stopped analysing the data because it always shown the same characteristics.
Now here's the strange thing. Over the last 12 mths or so, some of those characteristics have started to change. For example, I would never had traded on auto on Wolverhampton, but it seems to be doing well at the moment? I dont know if it has a big enough sample yet, so the jury is still out.
So to answer Zen's question, No I dont know how horses are likely to preform in play to the extent that Jolly does, but I do know which strategies to employ on which courses/distance etc. That alone has helped me generate profits in the super PC bracket.
I think LeTiss mentioned on another post yesterday about it being much harder these days and I would agree with that, but its not impossible. You now have to put in more effort to achieve the same result. Its bloody hard work at times, but its a good challenge!
regards
Peter
Thanks Peter, that's very useful.
If inplay was solely about evaluating under or overvalued horse prices, then I would have to stop here because I prefer to have a more statistical approach to trading. I guess that's what I wanted to find out.
Your approach makes total sense. My current thinking is to look for moments where a horse/s is over valued at a certain point in a particular course. I think the next stage for me is to go beyond the timeform data and record some inplay movements and maybe have a play with the automation.
If inplay was solely about evaluating under or overvalued horse prices, then I would have to stop here because I prefer to have a more statistical approach to trading. I guess that's what I wanted to find out.
Your approach makes total sense. My current thinking is to look for moments where a horse/s is over valued at a certain point in a particular course. I think the next stage for me is to go beyond the timeform data and record some inplay movements and maybe have a play with the automation.
Do you mean that the market can only cope with a certain level of money being put through it? i.e. If I layed £50 stakes a strategy might be profitable, whereas if I layed £500 if might not because it might not get matched?(You will hit a ceiling, where your stakes reach a level of diminishing returns. Your ideal stake is just under that curve)
Hi Steve
Your current thinking about looking whether a horse is over valued (or under valued) is sound. This is was I was hinting at in my original post to Zen.
Without giving too much away; if you use all the features of BA i.e. "Cancel All"..you could preset your lays and then cancel them if the race is NOT going to be a close thing..you dont have to watch the race..the figures and percentages in play will determine that
In terms of the ceiling; you may develop a strategy that lays at say 1.03 with a stake that compounds (slightly!) over time
You could find that when the horse does go on to win you lose your full stake every time...but in the instances that it touches 1.03 and loses you dont get the full stake matched every time
Regards
Peter
Edit : Sorry when I say "Cancel All" I meant via excel rather than manually cancelling them...
Your current thinking about looking whether a horse is over valued (or under valued) is sound. This is was I was hinting at in my original post to Zen.
Without giving too much away; if you use all the features of BA i.e. "Cancel All"..you could preset your lays and then cancel them if the race is NOT going to be a close thing..you dont have to watch the race..the figures and percentages in play will determine that
In terms of the ceiling; you may develop a strategy that lays at say 1.03 with a stake that compounds (slightly!) over time
You could find that when the horse does go on to win you lose your full stake every time...but in the instances that it touches 1.03 and loses you dont get the full stake matched every time
Regards
Peter
Edit : Sorry when I say "Cancel All" I meant via excel rather than manually cancelling them...
There are probably only two ways to judge whether a horse is over/under valued. You either have knowledge on the horse itself, i.e. what stable is it from, what are the best ground conditions etc. are for the horse and/or the inplay price of the horse based on it's position at each point in the race. So when Jolly refers to horses being backed in too heavily recently he means that a horse price was too low for its position in the race.
Both judgements aren't available in the timeform data, but if you take the second judgement then what is missing is the movement of the price for each horse within the race (whether oscillating or linear) and where the horse was actually positioned within each race. So this would mean recording race data (via excel) and recording the race (via video).
So if sampling twenty races you might find that if three horses are below 4.0 in the last furlong of 1m Hcap at Nottingham on heavy ground it's profitable long term to lay the field at 2.7 - although I suspect if people say its harder to profit these days then successful strategies are probably more hidden than that.
Both judgements aren't available in the timeform data, but if you take the second judgement then what is missing is the movement of the price for each horse within the race (whether oscillating or linear) and where the horse was actually positioned within each race. So this would mean recording race data (via excel) and recording the race (via video).
So if sampling twenty races you might find that if three horses are below 4.0 in the last furlong of 1m Hcap at Nottingham on heavy ground it's profitable long term to lay the field at 2.7 - although I suspect if people say its harder to profit these days then successful strategies are probably more hidden than that.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Sorry for the slow reply guys, I am relaxing on holiday.....in the rain! 
I suppose I am lucky that I have a knack of knowing when an in running price is "wrong". I have put wrong in quotes because it is my interpretation. I will try and explain what I mean and hopefully some of you will contribute other thoughts.
It is my personal opinion that a lot of in running players, in particular clock beaters are not knowledgeable when it comes to racing. They fail to understand the vagaries of this complex subject and prefer to follow a "it's leading" or "It looks like the winner" so I will back it or "it's behind" or "it's being whipped" therefore I will lay it type approach. Now before anyone on here thinks I am having a pop, please think again. I am referring to people I know who actually work this way and they have many associates who behave the same way. They trade from the course, from trading rooms and occasionally from standard pictures
and to the best of my knowledge they are not active on this forum.
When I watch a race I look for how a horse is travelling but I need to know its running style. Some horses are complex, they must be ridden certain ways. There is the horse which must front run and if it is headed it will down tools and sulk. There is the horse which must be held up and produced late. If the horse hits the front too soon then it will think its job is done and will pull itself up. There are horses who like to run on past horses and suddenly come to life when they do so.
There are also horses that will not respond the whip, their tail goes round and they lift their head. There are some which don't seem to face the bridle. By this I mean horses that do not pick up the bridle and need constant urging from the jockey. There are other horses which we refer to as "bridle horses" or "good travellers" but amongst that type can be the ones who find nothing when let down. By this I mean a horse that swings along on the bridle with the jockey getting an armchair ride only to find when push comes to shove the jockey is holding onto nothing and the horse doesn't go forward. These are the type to cause major screaming in that they are smashed into low prices only to spit the dummy and lose!
So you can see that with so many vagaries it is not always easy to spot the winner.
I have sat in with clock beaters and watched them lose a fortune. A horse comes under pressure with 2 obstacles or 2 furlongs to go. They instantly hit lay only to find the horse responds to pressure and goes on to win. Even if it doesn't actually win you find they get out with a loss by backing or by backing another likely winner. This means they build liability but reduce their potential profit. I watch them backing a front runner without checking the pace of the race and vice versa laying a front runner without checking the pace.
Let me explain the pace aspect. The quickest time in any race will be achieved by maintaining an even gallop from start to finish. This applies to horses, swimmers, runners and just about any form of race including cars. With this is mind a horse that is gifted an easy lead has a good chance of sneaking the race from the front. Last NH season there was a bumper at Ascot where the front runner was gifted a massive lead. He jumped off and maintained a steady gallop whereas the other jockeys dawdled and then assumed the leader would come back to them. I did not get involved in that race as I was sat with friends and family. I did say to them I felt he may hang on and he duly obliged. I then spoke with a friend who was moaning about the race saying it was crazy that he held on. He had not accounted for the pace or the circumstances of the start and just assumed he had gone too quick. As you know assumption is a dangerous thing and costly too, he lost close to £5K on that horse alone!
So when I look at a race and a horse takes the lead I simply check if the horse was gifted the lead or had to work hard to get it? Did it pull to the front or did the jockey roust him along? If he expended energy and is now galloping away while the others are galloping along together then it is unlikely the leader will hang on. Now this is not 100% because you have to know how this horse normally runs, what is his form etc etc? The market will generally discount an outsider if it goes from the front in the belief it cannot win based on its previous form and its starting price. The race at Ascot as mentioned disproves that and can prove expensive! If the horse is favourite or from the front three for example then you will often see the price shrink quite quickly! I then ask myself "how far have they travelled, what pace and can it hold on?" Now you don't have to base any order on the outcome of the race. For example, a horse shrinks from 4.0 to 2.6 in running and they've jumped two obstacles. Well to me that is plain wrong assuming the others are still running and are not already struggling. How can the horses chances have improved by some 13% after just 2 obstacles? You will see this daily and I am often looking to place a lay because unless that horse can maintain the pace for the remainder of the race it is going to drift in price. One bad jump, a couple of cracks with the whip and the market will react the other way! Please do not jump in and lay, just watch these markets and see how they behave.
Here is something for you to try if you want to. Look at the lower grade races like 5 6 on the flat and jumps. Stay away from NHF (Bumper) sellers and claimers for now as they're often more tricky to work out. Have a look at the last price of the favourite pre-race and then look at how it performs in running. You will find a lot where the price drifts a lot in running which can prove profitable. Do not be greedy though, look to steal a small amount at this stage. If you can then look at races where the ground is soft or heavy, the course has a stiff finish etc you can make it work more often. A quick check on the favourite's form will soon show if he/she handles the ground etc. The more negatives you find the greater your chance of succeeding with the strategy. REMEMBER, they can drift badly but still go on to win so take your profit and get out, DO NOT assume it will lose!
Good luck, small stakes and enjoy!
I suppose I am lucky that I have a knack of knowing when an in running price is "wrong". I have put wrong in quotes because it is my interpretation. I will try and explain what I mean and hopefully some of you will contribute other thoughts.
It is my personal opinion that a lot of in running players, in particular clock beaters are not knowledgeable when it comes to racing. They fail to understand the vagaries of this complex subject and prefer to follow a "it's leading" or "It looks like the winner" so I will back it or "it's behind" or "it's being whipped" therefore I will lay it type approach. Now before anyone on here thinks I am having a pop, please think again. I am referring to people I know who actually work this way and they have many associates who behave the same way. They trade from the course, from trading rooms and occasionally from standard pictures
and to the best of my knowledge they are not active on this forum.When I watch a race I look for how a horse is travelling but I need to know its running style. Some horses are complex, they must be ridden certain ways. There is the horse which must front run and if it is headed it will down tools and sulk. There is the horse which must be held up and produced late. If the horse hits the front too soon then it will think its job is done and will pull itself up. There are horses who like to run on past horses and suddenly come to life when they do so.
There are also horses that will not respond the whip, their tail goes round and they lift their head. There are some which don't seem to face the bridle. By this I mean horses that do not pick up the bridle and need constant urging from the jockey. There are other horses which we refer to as "bridle horses" or "good travellers" but amongst that type can be the ones who find nothing when let down. By this I mean a horse that swings along on the bridle with the jockey getting an armchair ride only to find when push comes to shove the jockey is holding onto nothing and the horse doesn't go forward. These are the type to cause major screaming in that they are smashed into low prices only to spit the dummy and lose!
So you can see that with so many vagaries it is not always easy to spot the winner.
I have sat in with clock beaters and watched them lose a fortune. A horse comes under pressure with 2 obstacles or 2 furlongs to go. They instantly hit lay only to find the horse responds to pressure and goes on to win. Even if it doesn't actually win you find they get out with a loss by backing or by backing another likely winner. This means they build liability but reduce their potential profit. I watch them backing a front runner without checking the pace of the race and vice versa laying a front runner without checking the pace.
Let me explain the pace aspect. The quickest time in any race will be achieved by maintaining an even gallop from start to finish. This applies to horses, swimmers, runners and just about any form of race including cars. With this is mind a horse that is gifted an easy lead has a good chance of sneaking the race from the front. Last NH season there was a bumper at Ascot where the front runner was gifted a massive lead. He jumped off and maintained a steady gallop whereas the other jockeys dawdled and then assumed the leader would come back to them. I did not get involved in that race as I was sat with friends and family. I did say to them I felt he may hang on and he duly obliged. I then spoke with a friend who was moaning about the race saying it was crazy that he held on. He had not accounted for the pace or the circumstances of the start and just assumed he had gone too quick. As you know assumption is a dangerous thing and costly too, he lost close to £5K on that horse alone!
So when I look at a race and a horse takes the lead I simply check if the horse was gifted the lead or had to work hard to get it? Did it pull to the front or did the jockey roust him along? If he expended energy and is now galloping away while the others are galloping along together then it is unlikely the leader will hang on. Now this is not 100% because you have to know how this horse normally runs, what is his form etc etc? The market will generally discount an outsider if it goes from the front in the belief it cannot win based on its previous form and its starting price. The race at Ascot as mentioned disproves that and can prove expensive! If the horse is favourite or from the front three for example then you will often see the price shrink quite quickly! I then ask myself "how far have they travelled, what pace and can it hold on?" Now you don't have to base any order on the outcome of the race. For example, a horse shrinks from 4.0 to 2.6 in running and they've jumped two obstacles. Well to me that is plain wrong assuming the others are still running and are not already struggling. How can the horses chances have improved by some 13% after just 2 obstacles? You will see this daily and I am often looking to place a lay because unless that horse can maintain the pace for the remainder of the race it is going to drift in price. One bad jump, a couple of cracks with the whip and the market will react the other way! Please do not jump in and lay, just watch these markets and see how they behave.
Here is something for you to try if you want to. Look at the lower grade races like 5 6 on the flat and jumps. Stay away from NHF (Bumper) sellers and claimers for now as they're often more tricky to work out. Have a look at the last price of the favourite pre-race and then look at how it performs in running. You will find a lot where the price drifts a lot in running which can prove profitable. Do not be greedy though, look to steal a small amount at this stage. If you can then look at races where the ground is soft or heavy, the course has a stiff finish etc you can make it work more often. A quick check on the favourite's form will soon show if he/she handles the ground etc. The more negatives you find the greater your chance of succeeding with the strategy. REMEMBER, they can drift badly but still go on to win so take your profit and get out, DO NOT assume it will lose!
Good luck, small stakes and enjoy!
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Yes mate, they trade using the internal closed TV feed so there is no delay involved.stevequal wrote:Jolly, what do you mean by "clock beaters". Is this someone at the course who is looking for a split second advantage to those at home using live pictures?
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
13:30 Newmarket today. Raskova travelled well and once again was smashed into 1.11! A typical "good traveller" but not a bridle horse as such. The in running players think "it must win" but when the battle ensued he was found wanting and it was clear he would be caught and passed. The people laying at 1.11 are laughing but the backers will be crying!