Champions League 2013/14

[Euler]

Plzen vs. B Munich - 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht - 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow - 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid - 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen - 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray - 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd - 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica - 93%

[stevequal]

Many thanks Peter.

[Euler]

No worries, sorry for the delay, just a bit disjointed with the early mornings and late nights at the moment.

[stevequal]

Real Madrid game good trading fodder.

[Euler]

Excluding the early kick off.

Barcelona vs. AC Milan - 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna - 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal - 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke - 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille - 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest - 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic - 103%

I've priced in 21 goals this evening.

[stevequal]

The Bayern Munich and PSG results were massively underwhelming in terms of there goal return. But there were a few things that stuck out.

1. Bayern made four changes from there previous encounter. PSG were without Cavani and Ibrahimovic was rumored to be carrying an injury.

2. In the previous PSG game one of the PSG goals was caused by a defender slipping and another was a Ibrahimovic wonder strike. Not your average goals.

3. Ibrahimovic said that the PSG players were too comfortable after the first game.

4. Do teams that get heavily beaten in the first encounter, concentrate and tighten up at the back after the humiliation of the previous result?

All hindsight thoughts, but I wonder if there is anything in it.

[stevequal]

Peter from the ratings so far, I've got some interesting results in the overs and unders markets when I've grouped the matches based on their ratings. The sample is way too small, but there maybe something in it.

[Euler]

Mournino's cheap hair cut

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/25100646

[Euler]

Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: -

Porto vs. Austria Vienna - 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli - 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille - 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona - 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke - 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea - 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid - 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan - 95%

I've priced in 23 goals.

[stevequal]

Cheers Peter.

[LeTiss]

You can get 8folds with various bookies that equate to 100/1 on all matches having over 2.5 goals

If you like having an occasional little £5 per bet on these things, it's worth a go, because I see it happening at some stage

[LeTiss]

Awful penalty from Ozil
£42M and he takes penalties like that!

He needs to watch Sir Rickie - pick your spot and bloody smack it

[gutuami]

Mare for Chelsea!

I like matches where a bigger team lose. Especially after yesterday carnage: Galatasaray 1-6 Real Madrid
if you watch only the first half you'll never guess the final score. I think if Ancelotti was at Chelsea and Mourinho at Real we would have had a reverse .

Will see how they will play the next match.
26/11 Basel - Chelsea

87' now 1:0

[gutuami]

Ajax 2-1 Barcelona that's a good one two after 4:0 home for Barca

[Michal]

Peter, Is the percentage you include the chance of goals above the average?

I am not sure if there is anything in this, but if you took the average implied odds of the "over 2.5 goals market" for each of last nights games it was 50%.

2.5 times 8 = 20 goals and there were 20 goals last night. Not sure if my maths or logic is right there. I noticed your system predicted 22.

My methodology is based on something I did 20-30 years ago. I was trying to work out what created a draw so I figured two teams with similar scoring rates will most likely end in a draw. The closer the scoring rates are to an even number the more likely the draw.

So I started working on scoring rates. But you realise that each footy market is a step function per goal. So 1 to 2 nil is a big jump and in reality you can't exactly predict that. So the only way to make a sensible judgement, over time, is to say if this match was played 100 times how many goals would be scored on average. So you end up with impossible score lines like 2.48 to 0.74 for a total of 3.22 goals. On individual matches you will be above or below that but in aggregate, especially over the course of a season, you can be very accurate. Each season I'm within a fraction of the actual number against forecast.

Once you have that data you can work out all the other stuff, such as time of first goal.

Peter, what matches are included for these scoring rates? Is it only CL matches or all matches of certain team or you exclude only some minor friendlies/up matches? Also do you take in the account how certain teams match up against each other?
And a follow up: sorry if I sound dull but when you write
say this game here is 131% over long term average does this mean that this game has 31% higher chance of over 2.5g happening compared to long term average?
Cheers, all the best