Racing data to aid trading

[JollyGreen]

At the moment I am struggling health wise so I have been running systems and analysis on the UK Horse Racing.

I have posted a screen shot below showing an early lay on a horse. Using my racing knowledge I considered the favourite was under priced. I laid it and will trade out now.

I include the bets showing the time which were placed hours before the race.

I would like you guys to tell me what type of data you think would help you?

JG

early drift.png

[stevequal]

Very kind offer Jolly. Personally, I'd be interested to know what made you feel it was over priced? And any examples of horses being over priced in running would be interesting.

[kelpie]

When is a tail too big?

Referring not the hairy appendage attached to their derriere, of course, but the trading range

great offer! Thanks JG

[JollyGreen]

Very kind offer Jolly. Personally, I'd be interested to know what made you feel it was over priced? And any examples of horses being over priced in running would be interesting.

I have read a few comments where people say the markets are random. This is alien to me because the market is driven by a mixture of emotion, knowledge and idiocy. The latter is generally caused by people who know very little about the market but follow the money.

IMHO the market is driven by money and this in turn has to be based on something other than randomness. I believe that form is the main factor and yes, you have to sometimes accept there is information unknown to the masses. I prefer to based my judgement on what I have seen and what I can assess. If I don't have enough data then I will simply leave the race alone.

In this race I felt the price was too low because the horse is 9yo so he's probably at his peak and there is unlikely to be too much improvement. He was around 8lb above his highest winning handicap mark and I could not see him finding that much improvement. Yes, he had a chance but for me a horse must be pretty certain to win before I will accept <5.0 In the end he ran a decent race but I don't think he will be winning any time soon unless connections can find him the ideal weak race. He'll bolt in next time now I have said that!!

Now admittedly I am not talking about gambling but there will be other form students out there who will pick up on similar things and that is what drives the price out. I have to be honest and say I didn't expect it to hit 6.2 prerace and that figure was a bonus.

My logic is a simple one. When looking to bet a horse you need to be pretty confident it will win if the price is <5.0 because each way is a struggle at the price. I know plenty of pro punters who will bet each way at 4.0 but they are very shrewd and know their horse will at least make the frame thus restricting their potential losses. So with this in mind it is quite normal to see a horse with doubts drift in price. Once the others see it they will often join in because they believe "someone knows something" and the price can overshoot the correct level. It happened on this horse, the price slowly crept back in before another surge nudged it back out.

I'll try and get some data together for tomorrow.

JG