This is madness, pure and simple!

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
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Well continuing on my theme about in running madness, have a look at the screen shot I have attached. Can anyone believe this? Someone is throwing money away and someone is laughing like Arthur Daley all the way to the Leeds...you need to be a bit older to get that one!

The favourite was pushed into 2.0 and never made it out of 4th and how the 2nd and 3rd were pushed so low is simply insane!! That is around 333% if we adjust the winner to 1.10 or circa 340% at 1.01!!!

Crazy :shock: :shock: :shock:
Pure madness.jpg
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BJGardner
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1.01 gubbed in the first two races today!!! :roll:
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JollyGreen
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BJGardner wrote:1.01 gubbed in the first two races today!!! :roll:
£19446 on Opera Og at 1.01 Bangor 12:50 :shock: :shock: :shock:
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LinusP
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Great start to the day :D

Greed, fear, confusion and panic are in good supply today it seems...
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gutuami
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LinusP wrote:Great start to the day :D

Greed, fear, confusion and panic are in good supply today it seems...
Lingfield is on fire today
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herbie
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The favourite was pushed into 2.0 and never made it out of 4th and how the 2nd and 3rd were pushed so low is simply insane!! That is around 333% if we adjust the winner to 1.10 or circa 340% at 1.01!!!

Jolly,

Do you have a theory as to why this is happening :?:
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JollyGreen
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herbie wrote:
The favourite was pushed into 2.0 and never made it out of 4th and how the 2nd and 3rd were pushed so low is simply insane!! That is around 333% if we adjust the winner to 1.10 or circa 340% at 1.01!!!
Jolly,

Do you have a theory as to why this is happening :?:
Well in my humble opinion a lot of these crazy prices are caused by "clock beaters" people who use fast or live pictures to simply smash into what they perceive is the winner based on the live action.

Clearly they have more money than sense and make costly errors in judgement. I have seen it live many times. They usually say "that's beat" when the jockey moves his hands or "that's cruising" when it is travelling well. They clearly do not know how to read a race. Now some people will be laughing because they are laying them which is fine by me as I am often doing the same thing!

I saw one earlier in the week which went 1.30 with 3 fences to go! :shock: :shock: It was soundly beaten!! Go back a few years and it would never have traded that low with 3 fences to go but the "clock beaters" have changed all that.
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steven1976
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I know 1.01 is a bit crazy but in general I put it down to there being very real money in the markets. A lot less than people think.

In hindsight its easy to say a price was crazy but if nothing much has happened in between then.... I see it quite a bit on Ausy racing and to me there are many races when it feels like some bets are flashed into 1.2ish but nothing feels like it was real matched, as though they are flashing it in to possibly trigger back bots.

Something in that I'm sure for the mafs boys!
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JollyGreen
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steven1976 wrote:
In hindsight its easy to say a price was crazy but if nothing much has happened in between then.... I see it quite a bit on Ausy racing and to me there are many races when it feels like some bets are flashed into 1.2ish but nothing feels like it was real matched, as though they are flashing it in to possibly trigger back bots.
Yes but Steve this is real money, these horses are being backed into crazy prices. I just had another nice result with Rayak at Bangor 3:20. This horse was a dubious stayer based on his pedigree and flat form. The ground was unlikely to suit and he'd never jumped a hurdle in public. He made a horlicks of the first and was unconvincing at the remainder. He travelled okay but he was running with the choke out (pulling) and it was obvious to the trained eye he would struggle when push came to shove. He was backed into 1.57 and never looked like the winner.

So someone was backing this horse into a crazy price with 2 hurdles left which simply doesn't make any sense. I have to say it after the event because I can't say it live.

JG
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steven1976
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Lets hope the layers take advantage. They are obviously not there at the moment or some of these prices wouldn't be on offer.
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Iron
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Is it possible that what's happening is that Betfair are balancing the book on their sportsbook, even though that entails taking non-value backs?

Jeff
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Will Sharpe
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Ferru123 wrote:Is it possible that what's happening is that Betfair are balancing the book on their sportsbook, even though that entails taking non-value backs?

Jeff
Jeff, look at the flow of money and ask yourself if it's likely that a) someone would be putting those amounts through the sportsbook (hint look at the money avaialable to be matched via the sportsbook and the spread) b) Betfair would find it necessary to rebalance it via the exchange (a mrket maker has a spread for a reason)
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Iron
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Will Sharpe wrote:someone would be putting those amounts through the sportsbook (hint look at the money avaialable to be matched via the sportsbook and the spread)
I don't know what the turnover of the sportsbook is. Do you? Not a rhetorical question, btw.
Will Sharpe wrote:b) Betfair would find it necessary to rebalance it via the exchange (a mrket maker has a spread for a reason)
I don't know if they would, but I've heard tales of bookmakers balancing their books on exchanges...

Jeff
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LinusP
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Yep bookmakers use exchanges and other bookies to balance their books. I doubt betfair do it as you get limited as soon as you win a bet on the sportsbook so I doubt they end up with big liabilities.
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Will Sharpe
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Ferru123 wrote:
Will Sharpe wrote:someone would be putting those amounts through the sportsbook (hint look at the money avaialable to be matched via the sportsbook and the spread)
I don't know what the turnover of the sportsbook is. Do you? Not a rhetorical question, btw.

Jeff
I don't know the specifics for inplay horse racing but overall Q1 numbers says that sportsbook is 6% (4/64) vs 94% (60/64) for the exchange.I think it's safe to safe that inplay sportsbook volume would be less than that.
Will Sharpe wrote:b) Betfair would find it necessary to rebalance it via the exchange (a market maker has a spread for a reason)
I don't know if they would, but I've heard tales of bookmakers balancing their books on exchanges...

Jeff[/quote]

Yes but that's predominantly premarket volume where the bookmaker has time to evaluate the value at risk and rebalance accordingly. And yes the same algorithm would of course work for inplay but given the uncertainty provided by the inplay delay I doubt that many bookmakers would be using the exchange inplay to lay off liability under normal circumstances and especially not at a later stage in a race.

I think JG sums it up pretty nicely, he is by all standards a true expert :!:
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