This is madness, pure and simple!

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

How can anyone balance their books by backing a horse at such a low price? That just makes no sense.

Betfair act as the middleman apart from any trading they may do on their own markets but they would gain nothing by pursuing this kind of madness. They get the best information available - the money hitting the system - they see it before any of us!

This is down to people trying to beat the clock and making a horlicks of it. I have said many times, I wonder how long it can last because someone is losing a lot of money. I have heard rumours that some shady characters are laundering money but I have no proof of this.

There will also be PC payers looking to offset commission by laying/backing according to their position to generate commission and improve their account situation but again I do not know how much or for how long.

I have watched the markets for about 12-13 years and this has come full circle. When people were trading from the standard TV or pure odds the prices would trade low but it would need to be a tight finish. Then people became savvy about it and started to lay the field to take advantage. The market soon stopped that and it became very difficult to make it pay. I must add that never would a horse trade below 1.70-1.80 unless it looked close to winning.

Now we have clock beaters, people paying ££££s to trade with live pictures from hospitality boxes. I know plenty of them and they are NOT all making a living. I knew of a guy who thought he was invincible and bragged about vast sums he was making. He then lost £120,000 on four short priced horses all of which were beaten. It wiped him out and he lost everything.

At Taunton there was a horse that threw the jockey en route to the finish line. He was 100 yards out and had jumped all the fences to look a certain winner. The horse jinked left then right as if spooked and the jockey hit the deck. There was a group who lost around £500,000 on that one race because they were smashing it at all prices down to 1.01 and laying the supposed 2nd placed horse at 1000 too! Ouch that must've hurt! :shock:

I do not have the data on the amounts matched but I am sure someone on here does. There are some hefty sums being wagered at stupid prices which means someone is getting rich and someone else it getting poor. That is why I question how long it will continue. They say a fool and his money is soon parted but many will step up as replacements in the belief there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. A lot of the guys I knew who considered themselves to be good race readers now don't have a pot to p**s in but they will always tell you they're killing it.

One last example, a very sad but true story. I went along to a "clock beating" session at the invitation of the guy who organised it. I have been to quite a few but this one always sticks in my mind. I sat next to a guy and watched him out of the corner of my eye. I was trading small amounts and making about £20-£25 per race, I was not trying to go mental. On one particular race I watched as a horse cruised up through the field into 3rd place. I knew the horse in question was a weak finisher, a real "bridle horse" and one to be wary of. The price was hammered into around 1.60 but with 2 fences to go and a stiff uphill finish I knew he would probably come under pressure at some point. Three of them jumped the penultimate fence and I had already laid if for £200 at 1.60 ready to bail if he did actually go through with it. Sure enough he found nothing and went out as if someone had shot him. There was a cry of anguish from the guy next to me and I could see he had backed this horse for around £18,000 at various prices from 2.0 down to the low of 1.34 only to find it finished 3rd!! He had other activity in the market but when the dust settled he had lost around £30,000 on that single race. He stormed out and returned about 30 minutes later, reloaded his account and carried on.

When the session was over we all went for a much needed drink. This guy was asked how he'd finished on the day. He said "I clawed most of it back and lost about £3,000 overall!" That was complete BS as I had seen him lose on several races and his biggest win was about £1500! Now I didn't know the guy personally but it was clear he was an out and out gambler who was deluding himself about his P&L. The money was from his redundancy and sadly I heard that after 6 months of clock beating he'd lost the lot! I am not writing this to berate him or anyone else I am simply saying some people will lose a lot of money and disappear without a trace only to be replaced by the next one looking for easy money.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Hi Will Sharpe

Re: the volumes - Fair point.

Re: 'Given the uncertainty provided by the inplay delay I doubt that many bookmakers would be using the exchange inplay to lay off liability'. Yes, but you're assuming that Betfair would apply the in-play delay to themselves. I'd bet good money that they don't...

Re: 'I think JG sums it up pretty nicely, he is by all standards a true expert.' - JG knows his stuff, although as with all experts, one must approach what he says with a critical mindset, and not just assume that the expert is right and leave it at that.

But I concede that I'm probably incorrect re. this theory - I just thought I'd throw the idea out there and see what came back. :)

Jeff
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3virgul14
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Nice story JG, but it`s not complete.

Give me a chance to clock beat a market and I back everything which represents value at that moment, and yet I lay everything which represents value too..

I`ve been doing that on some special cases, including football-tennis and basketball..There were some events where the liquidity was even better than horse racing and believe me, those guys who lose 30K sometime on a race, can win much more on a race too...

I do the lay to back job in -running with my poor RUK and live video screens and I always want to do one thing, to lay the bad jumping horse after the penultimate fence and when all the market follows me to rocket sky the odds. Couple of seconds later just to see the horse coming back carrying A.P on him and back the odds down to evens again grabbing the upwards and downwards profit all together... That`s a joy!

Surely nobody is stupid and humans make error, but average clock beater is never to lose money due to the nature of the trading..
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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Yes 3virgul14 I agree with you but there is a big difference between backing or laying value and simply backing horses into ~1.3 with 3 fences to go especially when said horse is running out of steam and struggling to clear the obstacles.

The McCoy mount with a dodgy pedigree and poor jumping technique wasn't value at 2.0 let alone the crazy 1.57 taken by some!

I did say there are "clock beaters" who make good money but there are plenty who think they can ride the gravy train too. The smart players lay the dodgy jumpers etc whereas the loons are backing anything that leads without looking at their running or jumping style
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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

3virgul14 wrote: Surely nobody is stupid and humans make error, but average clock beater is never to lose money due to the nature of the trading..
You would think so but I can assure you I know plenty who have lost serious amounts and had to walk away.
LinusP
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Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

We need losers in this game, so don't try too hard to stop them Jolly!
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2047
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

LinusP wrote:We need losers in this game, so don't try too hard to stop them Jolly!
Oh yes, you are leaning against an open door mate!

I just find it amazing that it is lasting so long and that mistakes like this occur on a regular and profitable basis.....for the layers that is! :D

I am not saying my fellow forumites are doing this, clearly it is people who are clock beaters and NOT trading the odds as 3virgul14 mentioned. I have no issue with backing high laying low and vice versa when reading a race and knowing the running/jumping style but that will not thrash prices down to crazy levels.

Oh well, I will just make hay while the sun shines.
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LeTiss
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

The problem is Jolly, regular customers of BF have become so mistrusting of them, many assume they are behind all unexplainable activity

I was recently reading the gambling stories of footballers Keith Gillespie and Matty Etherington. It's amazing what ludicrous bets people will place when bored and earning good money

Old hands like us have seen many newbie BA forum members asking for help to back a horse 'in play' when it reaches a certain price - most of them soon disappear!

I was also reading about the drug baron Curtis Warren, who was recently jailed in Jersey. Police are trying to seize £198 Million from his criminal activities, and so far he isn't playing ball. But, they believe he has filtered the money through various channels, including betting accounts!

Just take advantage of it mate, who cares where it comes from!
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CaerMyrddin
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Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am

Hi JG, your posts are always very interesting.

And entertaining!

All the guys out there making loads, all the infrastructure, personnel and advertising, all the software houses for all exchanges and all the bookies. All that money is coming from the ducks. You can't blame them, they keep a whole industry running!

Now on a serious note, everyone should be concerned by the sad stories of gamblers and the dodgy origin of money. As industry participants we should all worry with it's image, as in the end a bad image may end up in changing politics that can hurt us all.
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