Sunnyhill Boy support?

[JollyGreen]

I have been mainly looking at trends and stats this afternoon as the racing at Cheltenham generally runs to discernible patterns. I am not saying it will always highlight definite winners but it will highlight horses that have very little if any chance of winning.

You may recall I gave Sunnyhill Boy for last year's Grand National. This horse stays longer than the mother in law so unless the ground is bottomless he is not going to give his best in a 3m1f hurdle race. So imagine my surprise when the price with the bookmakers shrunk from 14/1 at one stage into 7/1

So what causes punters to back this type of horse when on all known data he simply cannot win? I wish I knew because it makes absolutely no sense. It must be a mixture of Chinese whispers and the lemming effect as others follow the money.

Does anyone know if it was given by a tipster like Pricewise?

[Golfer]

This horse stays longer than the mother in law

[walshy]

Not Sure about Pricewise but his chances were talked up just before the off on racing UK

[JollyGreen]

Not Sure about Pricewise but his chances were talked up just before the off on racing UK

Ah, okay thanks Walshy, there is no better reason to click the lay button!!

[hgodden]

Racing UK were debating whether it was JP McManus's money.

I was trading that, and the most notable thing wasn't so much the volume of money coming for it, but the lack of layers willing to meet it

[JollyGreen]

Not Sure about Pricewise but his chances were talked up just before the off on racing UK

Also while on that subject, I wonder what they based their positive remarks on because he had no positives in terms of stats or form.

[rogerlisa]

J.G. I would say take yourself away from your mind set and your knowledge and then put yourself in a punters head who fancies a flutter. I personally could only name a couple of horses that were in the national this year but one of them would be 'sunnyhill boy'. Could it simply be that the average punter would think long race over fences with a horse in it that was always fancied for the national - its bound to win?????. Add this to every bookie knowing half of what you know and then building the horse up a bit with bulls''t before the race to encourage people to follow the trend and there you have I think.

[JollyGreen]

Racing UK were debating whether it was JP McManus's money.

I was trading that, and the most notable thing wasn't so much the volume of money coming for it, but the lack of layers willing to meet it

That would make sense for the RUK people. Highly unlikely JP would be betting on that horse, he's going to listen to Jonjo and AP and they must surely have known he had no real chance. I reckon they still have their eye on the Grand National so runs like this will do wonders for his handicap mark and fitness with little risk of injury from falling.

[rogerlisa]

It would seem that the horses actually does have something in common with my current business.
I own a Drainage company so you could say where there is 'muck there is money'.
In horses where there is bulls''t there is also so money.

[JollyGreen]

J.G. I would say take yourself away from your mind set and your knowledge and then put yourself in a punters head who fancies a flutter. I personally could only name a couple of horses that were in the national this year but one of them would be 'sunnyhill boy'. Could it simply be that the average punter would think long race over fences with a horse in it that was always fancied for the national - its bound to win?????. Add this to every bookie knowing half of what you know and then building the horse up a bit with bulls''t before the race to encourage people to follow the trend and there you have I think.

You're not wrong, I was a mug punter many years back, pre Betfair days! It is like I said, a mixture of Chinese whispers and the lemmings piling in on the basis "somebody knows something". The bookies can be called a lot of things but stupid isn't one them. If they see lemmings lining up they'll add fuel to the fire and "play the game" so to speak.