Hello experts,
it's me again, sorry. But I am betting on Israel v. Portugal U21 (Qualifiers für U21 Euro Championchip). I checked the market before laying the draw:
- liqudity was ok
- odds at 3.95
- Portugal scores nearly every match > 3 times
- Israel is scoring, too
(see my first screenshot).
But when in-play, Israel scored in minute #9 and the odds did not move (ok, they did, bit very slightly). In minute 17 Portugal scored 1-1 and the game started again. In Minute 54 Israel scored again and in minute 59 Portugal scored 2-2.
The odds moved, but betting on the draw did not reach 3.95, my entry-point.
What is the best plan un such situations? Taking a small loss? If so, which minute (about) is a good situation? Or shall I let it run and hope that there will be a late goal?
Thanks for your experience,
Chris
P.S.: Two minutes after taking these screenshots Portugal scored 2-3 and I got at least 3 GBP für my 20 GBP stake.
how long do you keep calm with such patterns in-play?
Apologies for not replying before, but laying the draw isn't a strategy I have huge experience in.
However, your last line did grab my attention. If you don't take a small loss and just leave it to run, simply hoping a goal will go your way, then that's gambling. If your stakes take that gamble into the equation and you are happy to absorb it, then fair enough.
In my experience, test drive new strategies with small stakes and then you will learn what's the best option to take. Don't be scared to take a red though, all successful traders are happy to take a small loss from time to time, especially if they have confidence in the long-term results
However, your last line did grab my attention. If you don't take a small loss and just leave it to run, simply hoping a goal will go your way, then that's gambling. If your stakes take that gamble into the equation and you are happy to absorb it, then fair enough.
In my experience, test drive new strategies with small stakes and then you will learn what's the best option to take. Don't be scared to take a red though, all successful traders are happy to take a small loss from time to time, especially if they have confidence in the long-term results
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woodhousejj
- Posts: 47
- Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2013 11:19 pm
OK- apologies firstly on 2 counts: 1) I am a novice on trading so my comments should be viewed as such 2) I may just be stating the obvious.
Laying the draw for me is to make a quick buck on the assumption that only 8%-9% of all games end in a 0-0 draw. My approach is always to green out after the first goal - profit will depend on 1) if the home team scores first 2) if the home team favourite scores first 3) How many minutes had elapsed in the game when the first goal is scored.
For me it was abvious that the price did not move when Israel scored as the goal was scored in the first half and the market viewed Portugal as the favourite based on previous results (you did not give the odds so I am assuming this). The resulting price movements would have been between Israel and Portugal.
Laying the draw for me is a strategy for a short term trade based on the probability that 9 times out of 10 someone will score - to keep the bet active after a goal is scored is gambling - I would not even consider keeping the bet active even if the home side and favourite scored as the price movement on such an event would likely move the price to an extent that i would be waiting a disproportionate amount of time to get the remainder of the profit - e.g waiting 80% of the time to get 20% of the remaining profit.
In answer to your question I would have greened out as soon as Israel scored first time - thats the way it goes - Laying the draw is a high probability strategy - which equates in my mind to a low profitability expectation.
The most difficult question to ponder in laying a draw is - when do you cut your losses if the game remains at 0-0. Depending on circumstances I cut my losses at 75 minutes. Prices deteriorate faster after this point as does my confidence in either of the teams being able to score. I don't have stats on this but for me it would be gambling to stay in after this point.
Apologies again if i have stated the obvious but laying the draw is not a strategy that I expect to retire on - i use it to pick up some quick bucks and have another profitable trade.
Laying the draw for me is to make a quick buck on the assumption that only 8%-9% of all games end in a 0-0 draw. My approach is always to green out after the first goal - profit will depend on 1) if the home team scores first 2) if the home team favourite scores first 3) How many minutes had elapsed in the game when the first goal is scored.
For me it was abvious that the price did not move when Israel scored as the goal was scored in the first half and the market viewed Portugal as the favourite based on previous results (you did not give the odds so I am assuming this). The resulting price movements would have been between Israel and Portugal.
Laying the draw for me is a strategy for a short term trade based on the probability that 9 times out of 10 someone will score - to keep the bet active after a goal is scored is gambling - I would not even consider keeping the bet active even if the home side and favourite scored as the price movement on such an event would likely move the price to an extent that i would be waiting a disproportionate amount of time to get the remainder of the profit - e.g waiting 80% of the time to get 20% of the remaining profit.
In answer to your question I would have greened out as soon as Israel scored first time - thats the way it goes - Laying the draw is a high probability strategy - which equates in my mind to a low profitability expectation.
The most difficult question to ponder in laying a draw is - when do you cut your losses if the game remains at 0-0. Depending on circumstances I cut my losses at 75 minutes. Prices deteriorate faster after this point as does my confidence in either of the teams being able to score. I don't have stats on this but for me it would be gambling to stay in after this point.
Apologies again if i have stated the obvious but laying the draw is not a strategy that I expect to retire on - i use it to pick up some quick bucks and have another profitable trade.
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
You could always go in with a layer of bets to begin with so if the initial fill is moved against then your next position taken could allow an earlier green than 3.95. 
Im a stong believer that if you take money on offer the market will often move against you whether it is for 5 seconds (high liquidity) or 20 mins (low real liquidity). Therefore you can prepare for it. It will also give an opportunity to be able to scratch earlier if your next bets get filled. If you sit there exposed for 20 mins to win 1 or 2 ticks for example, where is the long term edge in being exposed?
Or is that martingale system...? One for Jeff to get his teeth stuck into.
At the end of the day, i would say that its all a gamble but the quicker you can get the money in the bank the less exposed you are and therefore these small bits of green all add up to reduce your losses!
Im a stong believer that if you take money on offer the market will often move against you whether it is for 5 seconds (high liquidity) or 20 mins (low real liquidity). Therefore you can prepare for it. It will also give an opportunity to be able to scratch earlier if your next bets get filled. If you sit there exposed for 20 mins to win 1 or 2 ticks for example, where is the long term edge in being exposed?
Or is that martingale system...? One for Jeff to get his teeth stuck into.
At the end of the day, i would say that its all a gamble but the quicker you can get the money in the bank the less exposed you are and therefore these small bits of green all add up to reduce your losses!
Laying the Draw is one of the most common strategies and something that almost everyone tries when they begin trading on Betfair, but unfortunately it doesn't really work, unless like with everything else you have an edge of some sort to begin with.
Even then with all the problems that exist,
you are prob better off over time just laying / trading 0-0 from my experience.
Either way unless you have a defined exit strategy you are just gambling on a goal being scored.
I dont think anyone can tell you when to exit,
you unfortunately just have to put the work in and find out.
Even then with all the problems that exist,
you are prob better off over time just laying / trading 0-0 from my experience.
Either way unless you have a defined exit strategy you are just gambling on a goal being scored.
I dont think anyone can tell you when to exit,
you unfortunately just have to put the work in and find out.
+1freddy wrote:Laying the Draw is one of the most common strategies and something that almost everyone tries when they begin trading on Betfair, but unfortunately it doesn't really work, unless like with everything else you have an edge of some sort to begin with.
And unless you are exploiting a market mistake (which you aren't in lay the draw), you haven't got an edge...
Jeff