If any of the scheduled fixtures for the day are postponed or abandoned and not completed within three days of the original scheduled date, this market will be void.
Champions League 2013/14
Goal ratings for this evening's matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: -
Barcelona vs. Celtic - 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest - 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund - 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal - 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel - 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg - 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax - 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto - 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
Barcelona vs. Celtic - 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest - 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund - 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal - 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel - 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg - 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax - 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto - 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
Top rated matches with first goal time.
Barcelona vs. Celtic - 138% (7 mins - Pique)
B Munich vs. Man City - 130% (5 mins - Müller)
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest - 128% (10 mins - Ba D.)
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid - 128% (25 mins - Modrić L.)
Marseille vs. Dortmund - 124% (4 mins - Lewandowski)
...
Barcelona vs. Celtic - 138% (7 mins - Pique)
B Munich vs. Man City - 130% (5 mins - Müller)
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest - 128% (10 mins - Ba D.)
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid - 128% (25 mins - Modrić L.)
Marseille vs. Dortmund - 124% (4 mins - Lewandowski)
...
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giulio2010
- Posts: 962
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am
The champions league group stage sometimes can be very unfair for some teams. Last night Napoli did not qualify for the next round with 12 points but so could be for Arsenal, if Napoli scored one more and so for Dortmund that only qualified at the 88th minute. Those 3 teams made more points then Leverkusen (10), Galatassaray (7),Olimpiakos (10), Shalke (10), Zenit (6), Ac Milan (9), with 4 wins and 2 losses each, one of them had to be left out, it happened to be Napoli.
I was looking a bit deeper into the ratings and available odds this morning and as someone who moans constantly about extrapolation, I should point out that the trend I highlighted last night didn't continue for previous results (that I had collected).Higher rated does equal earlier goals over the long term. I actually came up with a formula to link the two, so it is possible to resolve the theory with the actual.
However for the collection I have which is half the CL group games this year, I found that if you dutched several odds for the time of the first goal on the highest rated matches you would have had roughly a 25% ROI.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I agree Giulio, Zenith is such a powerful team, they managed to lose against the almighty Wien. Symptomatically, they did qualify but their odds are now higher than before the group stage begun!
Confirmed Champions league draw for the knock out stages: -
Manchester City v Barcelona
Olympiakos v Manchester United
AC Milan v Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen v Paris St-Germain
Galatasaray v Chelsea
Schalke v Real Madrid
Zenit St Petersburg v Dortmund
Arsenal v Bayern Munich
Manchester City v Barcelona
Olympiakos v Manchester United
AC Milan v Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen v Paris St-Germain
Galatasaray v Chelsea
Schalke v Real Madrid
Zenit St Petersburg v Dortmund
Arsenal v Bayern Munich
This is curious: -
Man City vs Barcelona
I looked at our historical database of matches and found 50 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 32.8% chance of a Man City win, a 40.7% chance of a Barcelona win and a 27.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 16% chance of a home win, a 32% chance of a away win and a 52% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 6.25 3.13 & 1.92 respectively. If you feel that historic data is a good guide to this match, then this suggests that the draw is too long, overpriced and therefore you should back it.
The market is forecasting 3.05 goals. Historically there have been 2.12 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71. Historically 34% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into digital odds of 2.94. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 62% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 72% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 20% of occasions and three or more goals on 34% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 34% of occasions and three or more goals on 16% of occasions.
Man City vs Barcelona
I looked at our historical database of matches and found 50 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 32.8% chance of a Man City win, a 40.7% chance of a Barcelona win and a 27.4% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 16% chance of a home win, a 32% chance of a away win and a 52% chance of a draw. This converts into odds of 6.25 3.13 & 1.92 respectively. If you feel that historic data is a good guide to this match, then this suggests that the draw is too long, overpriced and therefore you should back it.
The market is forecasting 3.05 goals. Historically there have been 2.12 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.71. Historically 34% of similar matches ended over 2.5 goals which translates into digital odds of 2.94. This is hinting at lay value in this market.
The home team has scored at least one goal in 62% of matches. The away team has scored at least one goal in 72% of matches. The home team have scored two or more goals on 20% of occasions and three or more goals on 34% of occasions. The away team have scored two or more goals on 34% of occasions and three or more goals on 16% of occasions.
