Are there any betting patterns that suggest that someone knows that a horse is more or less likely to win that the market odds suggest?
Jeff
Insider knowledge
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andyfuller
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Become the assistant trainer or some other job in the yard or start paying staff for information.Ferru123 wrote:Yes, but how do I spot these patterns so I can exploit them and bet on a 15/1 horse that the trainer thinks will win?
It's one of the reasons I don't trade on horses
IMO, it's a sport that completely lacks integrity and these shenanigans makes trading even more difficult
Football, Tennis & other sports is all about opinion, and any important team news or injury updates are there for anyone doing their homework
IMO, it's a sport that completely lacks integrity and these shenanigans makes trading even more difficult
Football, Tennis & other sports is all about opinion, and any important team news or injury updates are there for anyone doing their homework
[quote="LeTiss 4pm"]It's one of the reasons I don't trade on horses
IMO, it's a sport that completely lacks integrity and these shenanigans makes trading even more difficult
i would have thought that as long as it provides liquidity, who cares who wins/lose. if straight or bent. no real difference if you trade. ofcause if your a straight backer/layer that would make a difference.
IMO, it's a sport that completely lacks integrity and these shenanigans makes trading even more difficult
i would have thought that as long as it provides liquidity, who cares who wins/lose. if straight or bent. no real difference if you trade. ofcause if your a straight backer/layer that would make a difference.
There are patterns which you can detect but not for all gambles.
I tend to trade now but there is a link between bookmakers and certain stables. I will provide one for the forum members since I am in a generous mood!
The logic is that it is in the bookmakers interest to ensure that the prices they put up reflect the chance of the horse - because of this and the large sums of money gambled on the horses it is imperative that the large bookmakers have "connections" in most stables.
There is a distinct pecking order for this so, if the trainer has an account with Corals, the Assistant trainer Lads and the Head Lad with W.Hill it is likely that the Corals odds are more reflective of the horses chance. The bookies are not passive in making the books so they offer a concesion of a certain amount to their contacts about a horses the morning of the race at the general tissue price.
For example if the Trainer has entered a horse for a race and the general tissue price (Rpost is accurate not Sporting Life) is 4/1 and he usually bets with Corals (Current offer 100/30) - with a top price available in the market being 7/2. He chooses not to have a bet at 4/1, then this tells Corals that the horse is likely to be cold and they will lay the horse in question. When I mean cold this could be for any number of reasons and not just because you think the race is bent. Trainers talk to each other when the entries are anounced, plus horses mature at vastly differing rates and if a horse shows sudden home improvement then these are good horses to follow.
Having owned racehorses, 99.9% of the participants are straight but use the handicap race conditions to their advantage.
So check out the A O'Brien horses - evaluate the prices of the runners on a Saturday/during the big meetings and if Ladbrokes offer the biggest price about an O'Brien runner then this is a lay opportunity. Also this has provided a good trading opp for a drift (not always though).
The opposite is true for the horses fancied. You'll have to wait until March/April though to try this out.
There are links for other trainers but you'll have to work this out for yourself.
I tend to trade now but there is a link between bookmakers and certain stables. I will provide one for the forum members since I am in a generous mood!
The logic is that it is in the bookmakers interest to ensure that the prices they put up reflect the chance of the horse - because of this and the large sums of money gambled on the horses it is imperative that the large bookmakers have "connections" in most stables.
There is a distinct pecking order for this so, if the trainer has an account with Corals, the Assistant trainer Lads and the Head Lad with W.Hill it is likely that the Corals odds are more reflective of the horses chance. The bookies are not passive in making the books so they offer a concesion of a certain amount to their contacts about a horses the morning of the race at the general tissue price.
For example if the Trainer has entered a horse for a race and the general tissue price (Rpost is accurate not Sporting Life) is 4/1 and he usually bets with Corals (Current offer 100/30) - with a top price available in the market being 7/2. He chooses not to have a bet at 4/1, then this tells Corals that the horse is likely to be cold and they will lay the horse in question. When I mean cold this could be for any number of reasons and not just because you think the race is bent. Trainers talk to each other when the entries are anounced, plus horses mature at vastly differing rates and if a horse shows sudden home improvement then these are good horses to follow.
Having owned racehorses, 99.9% of the participants are straight but use the handicap race conditions to their advantage.
So check out the A O'Brien horses - evaluate the prices of the runners on a Saturday/during the big meetings and if Ladbrokes offer the biggest price about an O'Brien runner then this is a lay opportunity. Also this has provided a good trading opp for a drift (not always though).
The opposite is true for the horses fancied. You'll have to wait until March/April though to try this out.
There are links for other trainers but you'll have to work this out for yourself.
Interesting. Does the opposite also apply?
Stewart wrote:
So check out the A O'Brien horses - evaluate the prices of the runners on a Saturday/during the big meetings and if Ladbrokes offer the biggest price about an O'Brien runner then this is a lay opportunity.
Yes - If Lads are shortest price then significant. Even more significant if Lads price is shorter than Racing Post forecast SP.
Because there are so many bookmakers just compare Lads price to W.Hill, Coral, PPower, Victor Chandler and Betfred - these will cover 98% of the market.
Remeber this doesn't guarantee a win but the horse is fancied. The statistics for return on turnover is good, was around 110% for 2008 season.
Because there are so many bookmakers just compare Lads price to W.Hill, Coral, PPower, Victor Chandler and Betfred - these will cover 98% of the market.
Remeber this doesn't guarantee a win but the horse is fancied. The statistics for return on turnover is good, was around 110% for 2008 season.