As you know I keep detailed stats on all the markets and on my activity on them.
Here is an interesting statistic from yesterday.
Yesterday I traded 35 races and did ok. Looking at the data this morning reveals that if you had backed at the point I joined the market and traded out at post time you would have earned £184.10 using £100 stakes! It was that simple yesterday.
20-12-2013
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Every time I enter 100 pounds when you do peter it goes the opposite way 
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convoysur-2
- Posts: 1110
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am
yes peter ..but back what ? the fav ?
Marc
Marc
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JollyGreen
- Posts: 2047
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
I think the current going may have an impact on how the market is moving. I cannot provide accurate data but let me explain from a purely form/punting point of view.
Historically bookmakers do well at this time of year when the ground is soft or heavy. General punters tend not to factor in ground conditions when picking a horse. Let's be honest most of them would be better off with a pin and a blindfold. However, informed punters will account for ground conditions and bet accordingly.
So how does this impact on the price of the favourite? We all know the favourite attracts the largest share of the money in any given horse racing market. If that favourite holds it entry i.e. not declared a non-runner and seems to have form on the prevailing ground then it will attract support. It could be the more informed punters first and then the public will follow as "someone must know something" which invariably they don't.
Something of interest yesterday was the "official" going at Haydock. The clerk said it was soft but unless the winners were on drugs (sore subject) something else was wrong. The ground was actually Good based on the times of the race. Despite this anomaly a few people contacted me to say the LTF (Lay the Field) strategy was working! They were correct but based on historical data it was a blip and unlikely to produce a profit long term.
Another factor could be the chasing factor. A lot of "good things" were turned over so plenty of punters would have been chasing their losses.....on the favourites!
As some punters become more informed via the internet the favourite with form on the going will attract more support. Now obviously it does not mean they will win but as a trader you are not concerned about the result, it is case of following the money down with your trade.
Having said all that it could be my drugs talking!
Historically bookmakers do well at this time of year when the ground is soft or heavy. General punters tend not to factor in ground conditions when picking a horse. Let's be honest most of them would be better off with a pin and a blindfold. However, informed punters will account for ground conditions and bet accordingly.
So how does this impact on the price of the favourite? We all know the favourite attracts the largest share of the money in any given horse racing market. If that favourite holds it entry i.e. not declared a non-runner and seems to have form on the prevailing ground then it will attract support. It could be the more informed punters first and then the public will follow as "someone must know something" which invariably they don't.
Something of interest yesterday was the "official" going at Haydock. The clerk said it was soft but unless the winners were on drugs (sore subject) something else was wrong. The ground was actually Good based on the times of the race. Despite this anomaly a few people contacted me to say the LTF (Lay the Field) strategy was working! They were correct but based on historical data it was a blip and unlikely to produce a profit long term.
Another factor could be the chasing factor. A lot of "good things" were turned over so plenty of punters would have been chasing their losses.....on the favourites!
As some punters become more informed via the internet the favourite with form on the going will attract more support. Now obviously it does not mean they will win but as a trader you are not concerned about the result, it is case of following the money down with your trade.
Having said all that it could be my drugs talking!