As I wasn't around last year I'd forgotton how thin these markets can be. Several times today I got something out of the market only for a sharp move to go right against me and there be nothing I could do. The sucker punch this evening was the last Wolvs race. Thought I had done OK and was going to skip the last race, gave it a try and as I was looking to exit, bang, the price crashes in without warning. Shot in from 4.70 to 4.00 without warning and never looked like bouncing back. Not the first time today.
Very frustrating, but another demonstration on just how thin the markets are. Very little backbone and not much ability to build a decent position. Roll on Cheltenham!
So thin
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
Yup markets seemed weak today - I say roll on the end of Cheltenham, I am sick of hearing about it already. Have been listening to chat about it for months now and just want it out the way. The whole jumps season revolves around those few days and that is why I much prefer the flat, there is something big every few weeks.
I took a couple of big hits yesterday both about 10 tic spikes that didn't recover. Managed to scape a profit just over £100.
I wish I was looking forward to Cheltenham but even after 3 years of trading I struggle with the big meetings. It's strange, everyone looks forward to the big meetings apart from me.
I wish I was looking forward to Cheltenham but even after 3 years of trading I struggle with the big meetings. It's strange, everyone looks forward to the big meetings apart from me.
Its funny how the majority of the time nowadays when a big spike comes in (at least on a stable price above 3s or 4s) there tends to be no reversal. Six months ago laying at the bottom of the spike would have given a few ticks profit 9 times out of 10 and was one of the simplest trading strategies going. Just goes to show how manipulated the markets are 
There were a couple of occasions yesterday when the first 3 prices were hit with a large volume of monies at the same time.
I am quite sure its not the first time it’s happened but out of interest is there any theories as to whom may instigate this and why it occurs.
I am quite sure its not the first time it’s happened but out of interest is there any theories as to whom may instigate this and why it occurs.
It may seem like a crazy thing to do but a large amount of that could have been self matched on prices where whoever is behind it could have put lots of orders in. Maybe whoever is behind it had built up liabilities on all 3 horses and / or were looking to manipulate the SP as it often happens close to the off.
IMO there is one large bot which runs through pretty much all prices on the racing markets and accounts for a HUGE amount of the overall matched volume. When the API was down the amount of unmatched money left lying around was tiny, as soon as the API switch was flipped on for the very next race there were many 1000s stacked out on many different price intervals on the favourites. IMO the difference can't be accounted for by many different traders as the change was made in the space of only one race and with all the troubles everyone was being extremely cautious at the time, most people were taking the rest of the day off.
If this sounds far fected check out this link for a company that openly seeds the football markets
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Swedish+% ... 0186408395
IMO there is one large bot which runs through pretty much all prices on the racing markets and accounts for a HUGE amount of the overall matched volume. When the API was down the amount of unmatched money left lying around was tiny, as soon as the API switch was flipped on for the very next race there were many 1000s stacked out on many different price intervals on the favourites. IMO the difference can't be accounted for by many different traders as the change was made in the space of only one race and with all the troubles everyone was being extremely cautious at the time, most people were taking the rest of the day off.
If this sounds far fected check out this link for a company that openly seeds the football markets
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Swedish+% ... 0186408395
I agree that the markets are being manipulated and it would seem logical that the Bookies are doing it.
Backing late on the exchanges, after they have shortened on-course in weak markets would make an excellent arbitrage strategy.
Whilst I love the racing at Cheltenham, I am with Andy that I can't wait for the flat. Frequent big meetings, lots of choice and alot of liquidity.
I was in some great positions yesterday, like others posted here, but what could have been a good day was below average.
Think the market will continue like this until March and, in general, I have reduced my stakes.
Backing late on the exchanges, after they have shortened on-course in weak markets would make an excellent arbitrage strategy.
Whilst I love the racing at Cheltenham, I am with Andy that I can't wait for the flat. Frequent big meetings, lots of choice and alot of liquidity.
I was in some great positions yesterday, like others posted here, but what could have been a good day was below average.
Think the market will continue like this until March and, in general, I have reduced my stakes.
Hgodden
Thanks for that link..just checked this company out; here are some of the soundbites...:-
* 43,000 Bets a day..
* S/R (profitable bets) 54%
* 78% of their activity inv Football (15% English Prem league)
* No longer in Horse racing (?)
* Gross Margin 0.81% on 69.8m SEK (About £6.1M?)
The turnover seems low?? (Can get the annual report as their website has a virus according to my browser?!)...
Re the turnover: Peter can do that on a good afternoon! Except on the greyhounds! (",)
regards
Peter
PS Put a News Alert on my google for Johan Moazed...will keep an eye on them!...if nothing else it provides inspiration for my BOT's!
Thanks for that link..just checked this company out; here are some of the soundbites...:-
* 43,000 Bets a day..
* S/R (profitable bets) 54%
* 78% of their activity inv Football (15% English Prem league)
* No longer in Horse racing (?)
* Gross Margin 0.81% on 69.8m SEK (About £6.1M?)
The turnover seems low?? (Can get the annual report as their website has a virus according to my browser?!)...
Re the turnover: Peter can do that on a good afternoon! Except on the greyhounds! (",)
regards
Peter
PS Put a News Alert on my google for Johan Moazed...will keep an eye on them!...if nothing else it provides inspiration for my BOT's!
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I may be wrong as I haven't read the article but I seemed to remember Peter being a shareholder in this company or one similar to it. He mentioned it in a webinar a while back. Reason for being a shareholder was so he could access accounts and directors if I remember correctly.
Sure Peter will be along at some point to correct me
Sure Peter will be along at some point to correct me
I own shares in many companies, so that's nothing special. When I saw they were listed I bought some shares as being a shareholder you have rights to vote and can also speak to directors as a shareholder if you want to, attend AGM's etc. They are specialists in football markets and for ages only did pre-inplay stuff on football. They have avoided the racing markets. Where football is quite easy to predict, horse racing is very difficult and even harder to model accurately.
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andyfuller
- Posts: 4619
- Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm
I wasn't trying to make out you had some hidden reason for owning shares in them it was just that I remembered you talking about it in one of the webinars and you saying that you do this for the reasons you have stated.Bet Angel wrote:I own shares in many companies, so that's nothing special.
As I understand Betdaq seed their own markets or at least they used to, not sure if other companies do this as well.
Betdaq created a seperate company to seed their own markets. It wouldn't surprise me if BF weren't doing the same, they admitted in a statement to a parliamentary select committee that the whole 'peer to peer' betting thing was just marketing and basically there is no difference between themselves and any other bookmakerandyfuller wrote:
As I understand Betdaq seed their own markets or at least they used to, not sure if other companies do this as well.
What do you guys think their basic strategy is?
Jeff
Jeff
PeterLe wrote:Hgodden
Thanks for that link..just checked this company out; here are some of the soundbites...:-
* 43,000 Bets a day..
* S/R (profitable bets) 54%
* 78% of their activity inv Football (15% English Prem league)
* No longer in Horse racing (?)
* Gross Margin 0.81% on 69.8m SEK (About £6.1M?)
The turnover seems low?? (Can get the annual report as their website has a virus according to my browser?!)...
Re the turnover: Peter can do that on a good afternoon! Except on the greyhounds! (",)
regards
Peter
PS Put a News Alert on my google for Johan Moazed...will keep an eye on them!...if nothing else it provides inspiration for my BOT's!
AR For 2009 out today
Managing Director comments
"After a turbulent year it is satisfactory to end the year with a positive result. We see strong growth in the live betting market. It is therefore pleasing that we have been able to increase both margins and turnover in this product", says Johan Moazed, Managing Director of Betting Promotion.
Overview October – December 2009
Betting revenue for the fourth quarter was SEK 15.1 (27.4) million. The gross margin was 0.68% which is in line with expectations. On a rolling yearly basis the company achieved a net turnover after trading fees of SEK 43.9 million leading to a gross margin of 0.53%. In light of the poor third quarter results the fourth quarter results provided important verification that the business model is sound. Live betting turnover has increased by 21% compared to the corresponding period in 2008. This was mainly due to the increase in the n umber of matches covered. The market for live betting continues to grow at a healthy rate and it is important for the company to participate in this growth.
Betting Promotion has commercial agreements with a number of different betting exchanges. Most are based on commission-free trading but on exchanges with higher turnover a trading fee is paid by Betting Promotion. During Q4 Betting Promotion paid SEK 5.0 million (3.4) as fees to betting exchanges. These fees are reflected in the gross margin and are itemized in the income statement.
Overview January – December 2009
The net turnover after trading fees for the period amounted to SEK 43.9 (58.5) million, corresponding to a fall of 25%. The reduction in net turnover is mainly due to the negative results in the third quarter. Investigations carried out by the company discovered no technical problems and it has later been revealed that the poor results have been a general occurrence in the market. Part of the reason for these poor results has been the unusual amount of winning favorites. Betting turnover for the period amounted to SEK 8,218 (10,543) million. The fall in betting turnover arose when the company decided to reduce trading on certain events which carried increased risk but did not necessarily increase profits. The changes, which were implemented gradually during the second and third quarters of 2008, render comparisons to previous betting turnover of no further relevance. The conclusion is that turnover on pre-event betting has remained constant whereas live betting turnover continues to show steady growth.
During the last quarter Betting Promotion launched its service for bookmakers. The company will use its existing platform to deliver odds and risk management to bookmakers on a commercial basis. The initial response has been positive and during the period discussions have been held with various distribution channels in order to launch the service in an effect ive manner. The majority of turnover on sports betting is transacted through bookmakers. With this service Betting Promotion will reach the part of the market which today represents more than 90% of the sports betting turnover.
Segment Reporting
Betting Promotion does not split operating costs, other than trading fees, on different products or services. This means that the operating result for Betting Promotion is reviewed on one level, based on the Result for the total company. Therefore Betting Promotion only has one operating segment.
Products
An important part of Betting Promotion's business concept is to deliver full market-making services even if some products offer better margins than others. Market making is the core of Betting Promotion's business and is comparable to businesses that guarantee liquidity for different sorts of financial instruments. The company provides a breakdown of "Net Turnover after trading fees" and "Gross margin ", calculated as "Net Turnover after trading fees" as percent of "Betting Turnover" between various products.
Soccer
Soccer remains the core of Betting Promotion's business and during the fourth quarter accounted for 58% of the total betting turnover, corresponding to SEK 1,275 million. The margin was 0.84%.
Live Betting
Live betting is presently offered in soccer and tennis. The margin for live betting was 0.56%. There are good opportunities to increase turnover within this product group by covering more football matches.
Other
"Other" includes a number of different sports, e.g. tennis, ice hockey, rugby, basketball and American football. The bookmaker service has lead to an increased offering in this product group.
Managing Director comments
"After a turbulent year it is satisfactory to end the year with a positive result. We see strong growth in the live betting market. It is therefore pleasing that we have been able to increase both margins and turnover in this product", says Johan Moazed, Managing Director of Betting Promotion.
Overview October – December 2009
Betting revenue for the fourth quarter was SEK 15.1 (27.4) million. The gross margin was 0.68% which is in line with expectations. On a rolling yearly basis the company achieved a net turnover after trading fees of SEK 43.9 million leading to a gross margin of 0.53%. In light of the poor third quarter results the fourth quarter results provided important verification that the business model is sound. Live betting turnover has increased by 21% compared to the corresponding period in 2008. This was mainly due to the increase in the n umber of matches covered. The market for live betting continues to grow at a healthy rate and it is important for the company to participate in this growth.
Betting Promotion has commercial agreements with a number of different betting exchanges. Most are based on commission-free trading but on exchanges with higher turnover a trading fee is paid by Betting Promotion. During Q4 Betting Promotion paid SEK 5.0 million (3.4) as fees to betting exchanges. These fees are reflected in the gross margin and are itemized in the income statement.
Overview January – December 2009
The net turnover after trading fees for the period amounted to SEK 43.9 (58.5) million, corresponding to a fall of 25%. The reduction in net turnover is mainly due to the negative results in the third quarter. Investigations carried out by the company discovered no technical problems and it has later been revealed that the poor results have been a general occurrence in the market. Part of the reason for these poor results has been the unusual amount of winning favorites. Betting turnover for the period amounted to SEK 8,218 (10,543) million. The fall in betting turnover arose when the company decided to reduce trading on certain events which carried increased risk but did not necessarily increase profits. The changes, which were implemented gradually during the second and third quarters of 2008, render comparisons to previous betting turnover of no further relevance. The conclusion is that turnover on pre-event betting has remained constant whereas live betting turnover continues to show steady growth.
During the last quarter Betting Promotion launched its service for bookmakers. The company will use its existing platform to deliver odds and risk management to bookmakers on a commercial basis. The initial response has been positive and during the period discussions have been held with various distribution channels in order to launch the service in an effect ive manner. The majority of turnover on sports betting is transacted through bookmakers. With this service Betting Promotion will reach the part of the market which today represents more than 90% of the sports betting turnover.
Segment Reporting
Betting Promotion does not split operating costs, other than trading fees, on different products or services. This means that the operating result for Betting Promotion is reviewed on one level, based on the Result for the total company. Therefore Betting Promotion only has one operating segment.
Products
An important part of Betting Promotion's business concept is to deliver full market-making services even if some products offer better margins than others. Market making is the core of Betting Promotion's business and is comparable to businesses that guarantee liquidity for different sorts of financial instruments. The company provides a breakdown of "Net Turnover after trading fees" and "Gross margin ", calculated as "Net Turnover after trading fees" as percent of "Betting Turnover" between various products.
Soccer
Soccer remains the core of Betting Promotion's business and during the fourth quarter accounted for 58% of the total betting turnover, corresponding to SEK 1,275 million. The margin was 0.84%.
Live Betting
Live betting is presently offered in soccer and tennis. The margin for live betting was 0.56%. There are good opportunities to increase turnover within this product group by covering more football matches.
Other
"Other" includes a number of different sports, e.g. tennis, ice hockey, rugby, basketball and American football. The bookmaker service has lead to an increased offering in this product group.