laying the draw fails at ManU v. Tottenham

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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ChrisCGN
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:32 pm

Hello experts,
I got a 4.3 lay bet on the draw before the off. Volume is about 5M GBP.
In minute 35 Tottenham scores 0-1 - and nothing, nearly absolutely nothing happened to the odds, see the screenshot. My guardian did not cath the small spike.

What can I do to avoid such matches in the future? Soccer mystic tells me that from minute 70 onwards I'll be in profit if no one scores a goal. But that's gambling, not trading. I want to become a trader...

Kind regards,

Chris
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ady1000
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:31 am

You need a plan for if/when the underdog scores first.

You can bail out for a smallish loss or you can hang on and see if the fav can pull a quick one back or if the dog can score again.

Decide what you are going to do before the game starts and stick to your plan. At least that seems to have improved my trading from regular bank losses to steady profits.
freddy
Posts: 1132
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 8:22 pm

For this reason certainly as a blanket strategy laying the draw returns less on average than just laying 0-0 would, or at least it did when i tried it years ago.

so imo it's a bit of a pointless strategy,
unless of cause you have a edge with your selection process in the first place.
ChrisCGN
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2012 2:32 pm

Thanky your your statements, gentlemen. The main issue I had was "why didn't the odds move when T'ham scored?". Maybe I thought too much but for me T'ham wasn't a so clear underdog.
I've learned to investigate the games (even) more precise to prevent such outcomes to happen. I found a freeware software with a football archive - unfortunally completely in German. For me it's fine, I'll scout the matches better. If of any interest, let me know and I'll psot the link.

Ironically, I left the match with a small loss at minute 70, just a couple of minutes befor all went in the right decission. Buy you never know.

Best regards,

Chris
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