And the difference between Gambling and Trading is...

[EyePeaSea]

Betting on red or black in the hoping of winning a one sided opportunity isn't mitigating anything, but it may be fun. But it's manufactured risk.

Not sure if I'm stretching your point a bit far, but I think it can be seen in another way.

If you record and analyse all the results from a roulette wheel for long enough (and they don't reseat/readjust it), then you will see imbalances in the physical mechanics and properties of construction. Therefore, you can reduce the banks advantage down from 5.2% or 2.7% to a percentage in your favour.

My point being - perhaps the difference between Gambling and Trading is the approach that you take, not environment or type of risk?

Ian

[gutuami]

The main difference: trading is hard work. gambling is having fun. Many participate in gambling as a form of recreation. That's why there are so many types of gambling so everybody can gamble. Addicted gamblers may loose everything "addicted" traders could make fortunes.
Trading vs gambling is like: hard work vs recreation, calculated risk vs luck, active vs passive, positive vs negative. A professional gambler (profitable) is working hard, is active and calculated so he's a form of buy only trader

[Zenyatta]

I have worked out their game. They are smarter than you or I. They will just adjust their tactics to continue to fleece us.

Sorry, but that is defeatist nonsense.

The big boys don't even know you and I exist...

Jeff

If you are trading small stakes (50s or less) they'll leave you alone. Any more than that and they will come after you. The fact is, the people with the big banks can push the market around. How do I know this? Because Jeff, for a short time, I was one of the big boys, and I have direct first-hand experience of how easy it is to manipulate the markets.

[Iron]

If you are trading small stakes (50s or less) they'll leave you alone. Any more than that and they will come after you.

Fine, then slip under the radar by using multiple £50 stakes, or hide your stakes under a big amount of money waiting to be matched. Alternatively, set your stops so that they are too far away from your entry for them to stop you out at will.

The fact is, the people with the big banks can push the market around. How do I know this? Because Jeff, for a short time, I was one of the big boys, and I have direct first-hand experience of how easy it is to manipulate the markets.

As you may have discovered, though, it's not risk-free, and you can only push them around for so long. If the market wants to get from A to B, you're not going to cause it to abandon its plans...

Jeff

[Iron]

Why not put this to the test, and use £50 stakes in practice mode?

I reckon that you'll find the market just as difficult to predict in practice mode, and you'll get the market moving against you just as many times. In other words, I think you're being fooled by randomness.

Jeff

If you are trading small stakes (50s or less) they'll leave you alone. Any more than that and they will come after you.

[LeTiss]

Perhaps we should have a 2014 competition between 2 of BA users

They both start with the same bank, say £250, and agree to get involved with the same market or markets each day.

One of them will be trading, the other will be backing/laying with a betting staking plan

They both post their results each day for us to see

Let's see who goes broke first, or who ends up with the most money after 30 days?

My money is on the trader!

[marko236]

Perhaps we should have a 2014 competition between 2 of BA users

They both start with the same bank, say £250, and agree to get involved with the same market or markets each day.

One of them will be trading, the other will be backing/laying with a betting staking plan

They both post their results each day for us to see

Let's see who goes broke first, or who ends up with the most money after 30 days?

My money is on the trader!

It would be great if someone comes forward and says they could beat any trader with a betting plan.

Anyone out there?? please come forward

[Zenyatta]

Alternatively, set your stops so that they are too far away from your entry for them to stop you out at will.

Doesn't work Jeff. Someone with a big enough bank determined to shift the market can push prices around by an enormous number of ticks before being stopped. When I putting on 1000s and folks were going after me, it was routine for the price to be pushed 18 ticks or more against me! (And in case you wondering: In almost every case, the price came back my way again - I was out-predicting the market almost every time).

As you may have discovered, though, it's not risk-free, and you can only push them around for so long. If the market wants to get from A to B, you're not going to cause it to abandon its plans...

Jeff

True, but see above, with a big enough bank you can easily create price spikes of 18 ticks or more which can last for 10s of seconds before the market corrects. More than enough time for a determined manipulator to fleece the folks that panic and stop-out too early.

[Golfer]

I don't believe you can corner a market and consistently profit from it.

Trading = gambling for me with different risk profiles and perceived reputations.

[rubysglory]

The difference between Trading & Gambling (from a Betfair perspective) is commission. Betfair's business model generally favours those that make small consistent profits over the longer term (Traders) as against the more traditional big loss - big winner players (Gamblers).

rg

[Iron]

Doesn't work Jeff. Someone with a big enough bank determined to shift the market can push prices around by an enormous number of ticks before being stopped. When I putting on 1000s and folks were going after me, it was routine for the price to be pushed 18 ticks or more against me!

Yes, but prices regularly move 18 ticks anyway. Your presence in the market was probably co-incidental.

True, but see above, with a big enough bank you can easily create price spikes of 18 ticks or more which can last for 10s of seconds before the market corrects.

Although I don't doubt you felt that to be the case when you were spoofing, I suspect you are being fooled by randomness.

Question for people who use large banks - How easy or difficult is it to engineer an 18 tick move?

More than enough time for a determined manipulator to fleece the folks that panic and stop-out too early.

If the market is going to move 18 ticks against my position, I'd rather get out with a one tick loss than lose 18 ticks...

Jeff

[steven1976]

In theory its very easy to create an 18 tick move. The trick is to make it look real enough so the backers or layers follow in on the spaces behind I guess for a scalp so you would know your worst sell out point. In practice near to the off for preoff it would probably not be possible without a lot of cash. Do it on a 3rd division football game with hardly any liquidity in the 89th minute and it may take less cash. Doesn't necessarily mean you will be able to sell it out immediately and therefore be exposed but the market may not push out 18 ticks if that makes sense.

[Iron]

I disagree.

Let's say the price is 2.28 - 2.30, and the market is steaming in, as a betting syndicate thinks the horse's true price is 1.9. You want to fool the market into thinking that the trend is about to reverse dramatically, hoping it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy, so you stick lay orders for £3K at 2.2, 2.22 and 2.24.

You may fool the market. What I think is more likely, though, is that the market will gobble up the money you've put down, seeing it as excellent backing value, and you'll have to bail out for a significant loss.

Jeff

In theory its very easy to create an 18 tick move. The trick is to make it look real enough

[steven1976]

So you have never seen a horse race go from 2 to 1.8 inplay? Obviously there are many things to consider but to say it is impossible is not right. If its an hour from the start how many people do you think are sat at their screens? How many ticks did it use to move when the bomber was around?

[steven1976]

And how do you know how many people are active in a market? It may just be me, you and one more person creating the market. I know people like to think there are 100s thousands of people active but the truth is with the sports book hiding away the exchange I'd imagine its very unlikely