Australian Open 2014

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Euler
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Federer definitely in decline, just from a very tall peak. Murray match will be fascinating.
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LeTiss
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I think Murray is overpriced at 14.5 to win the tournament
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stevequal
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Djokovic wobbling. Difficult to tell if 1.4 is good value at this stage.
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gazuty
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I'm constantly amazed with all the computer monitoring of markets etc that opportunities still arise from time to time to shoot fish in a barrel and take no risk. Happened again today. There are just markets I guess that no one monitors and the prices should change, but they don't.
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LeTiss
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What a sensational trading match this is
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stevequal
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I would say this is where you would identify a potential momentum swing back in Djokovic favour. Wawrinka serve games seem to be getting longer, whereas Djokovic are getting shorter.
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gazuty
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I remember the trading in this match last year.
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stevequal
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Two poor final shots there. Well done Wawrinka though.
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fortfield
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P45 for Becker :?
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gazuty
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Euler, do you have your 3d graph for Stan v the joker?
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Euler
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Can't tell you how gutted I was to miss this match this morning as I had to go to Betfair. Been waiting all tournament for a match like this and I'm not behind my desk when it happens!

Just looking at the data though, so will post up later.
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Euler
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Curiously it looks like Wawrinka never traded at a lower price to Djokovic until right at the end when he looked like he would win it.
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Zenyatta
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LeTiss 4pm wrote:I think Murray is overpriced at 14.5 to win the tournament
Good call. I finally got the big steam I was looking for on Murray, down to 8.4, with Djokovic going out in the boil-over. Murray's price still seems stubbornly high to me though.

Federer versus Murray is a coin-toss in the betting, with a slight edge to Fed. The Fed has come roaring back into good form.

I would still be confident in Murray if he was in top form, but there is still the question mark over his back. As he stated in an interview; 'You play 10% below your best, you're off the court quickly'. I therefore cannot back Murray with confidence.

If your life depended on this match who would you back to win this: Murray or Fed?
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Euler
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Zenyatta wrote:If your life depended on this match who would you back to win this: Murray or Fed?
Fed is much older than Murray so he will go for a break in the first set to try and stop the match heading out to a longer battle.

If you look at this vital stats most of them are declining and if you look at where his winners are being hit, they are much further forward in the court. So the key to a Murray win will be if he can return well and push Federer back further in the court.
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LeTiss
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Three points about Federer though

1) He's playing with a different racquet, which appears to have helped him, as it has a bigger head & he's hitting the ball cleaner

2) The court seems quite fast, or in the eyes of Federer he thinks it's faster, and that helps him

3) Edberg looks a good fit for him. Federer seems less interested in baseline stuff and wants to get forward quicker
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